Evergrande. Here's hoping CCP will step in.

tranquility1

tebbins said:

tranquility1 said:

I have a good mind to sell my ETF and go into cash for the next few months.

Will Burger King chicken nuggets really be 800 for $1?

More likely to be $800 for 1 nugget.

tranquility1

tebbins said:

tranquility1 said:

The world economy is an indebted house of cards.  It only needs a nudge to fall over.

Evergrande isn't the only case of this in China, I've read.

Oh dear here we go again, batten down the hatches folks the world is ending!

It's changing.

Thrugelmir

tebbins said:

Thrugelmir said:

All Chinese companies are accountable to the state first.  Shareholders second. Never been any different. Chinese capitalism is very different to that in the Western world. 

Local officials second, management's bank accounts third... I'm sure on occasion they spare a thought for the shareholders.

The state is often a sizable shareholder. 

tranquility1

I've gone into cash.  I've been waiting for things to come to a head and suspected it would be this autumn/winter.  But Evergrande could well be the black swan I've been expecting.  

tebbins

tranquility1 said:

tebbins said:

tranquility1 said:

The world economy is an indebted house of cards.  It only needs a nudge to fall over.

Evergrande isn't the only case of this in China, I've read.

Oh dear here we go again, batten down the hatches folks the world is ending!

It's changing.

Has it ever not been? In other news, it's Tuesday 

maxsteam

tebbins said:

maxsteam said:

I normally look at Chinese businesses and think, yes, it is a good business. I hope that the boss doesn't talk about politics or upset CCP in such a way that CCP steps in to educate the boss.

With Evergrande, I am actually hoping that CCP will step in and pick up the pieces otherwise I can see waves spreading around the world through the banking systems.

A bursting of the Chinese property bubble has been widely forecast. I hope that this is not the pin.

That's your first problem, your second is the share-class ownership problem, your third is the corruption, fraud & debt, I could go on.

It's no more my problem than that of anyone else who reads this board. There's the potential for many Chinese people to have their dreams of home ownership shattered. There's the potential for any banks with exposure to the Chinese property market to take a big hit. If it was a small operation, it would be allowed to fizzle out but Evergrande is China's second largest property developer and the Chinese property market is considerable.

tranquility1

And yet the stock market doesn't even flicker...  extraordinary.  Investors either aren't aware or they have balls of steel.

Alexland

tranquility1 said:

Investors either aren't aware or they have balls of steel.

I doubt this registers as relevant to the robin hood speculators and long term investor education is much better these days so with the expectation of market volatility they are less likely to take action on the back of news events which, on average, would damage their long term return. Even at current prices equities are likely to generate long term above inflation returns so no need to panic sell if investing suitably towards objectives.

tebbins

tranquility1 said:

And yet the stock market doesn't even flicker...  extraordinary.  Investors either aren't aware or they have balls of steel.

Find me a time you would have been more comfortable investing.
Watch from about 29:30 https://youtu.be/72Pq5zKEi_g

Malthusian

I've just stacked a million chicken nuggets bros, I'll see you on my 40-foot catamaran.

tranquility1 said:

But Evergrande could well be the black swan I've been expecting.  

If you were expecting it it's not a black swan.

Even if stockmarkets did crash because a Chinese property company has gone bust, that would not be a black swan, because stockmarket crashes are normal. A stockmarket crash is more like a flock of swallows turning up in May.