Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

Michael121

tranquility1 said:

Narrator:  "That's exactly what he said".

Well he was entertained when you said "The only thing keeping the stock market from crashing is QE.  Assets are in a massive bubble because of the printing of money"

So in a roundabout way he kind of did. Which is why i asked the question.

tebbins

Michael121 said:

tranquility1 said:

Narrator:  "That's exactly what he said".

Well he was entertained when you said "The only thing keeping the stock market from crashing is QE.  Assets are in a massive bubble because of the printing of money"

So in a roundabout way he kind of did. Which is why i asked the question.

Again, being entertained by something does not imply an opinion of it.

lozzy1965

I think the ironically named tranquility1 lost all credibility when stating that something in the stock market was 100% going to happen.  Unless the prediction is - as previously mentioned - that the stock market will 100% go down on at least 1 day before the end of the year.  

coastline

What commentators are saying about QE and the market is shown in the links and charts below. I've no idea how it all works out in future but you can kind of see a link. First article shows up to 2013.

  How Will The Stock Market React To The End Of QE? | Investing.com

Then more until 2019 when it slows and the market turned down and fell up to 20% that year.  Since the pandemic we've had another stimulus package and there's talk of it slowing again soon.

Three trends that stock market investors will want to end in 2019 | AJ Bell Youinvest

What's got the commentators talking again is the huge rally without a meaningful correction. Doesn't have to be a crash just sideways or down 10-20% . Nobody knows.
There's this for a start.

EqkT4ubW8AMAppx (700×387) (twimg.com)

This year we ain't had any of these.

D7QjWt7WwAA6HYW.jpg (1200×661) (twimg.com)

This is 2 months old so you'll have to add it to the chart and you can see there's only been a handful of times in 100 years. So we are heading for 250 days. 

E7EFxU9XsAYrnaW (700×490) (twimg.com)

It's a similar picture for the SP 500 above the 200 period average in all timeframes , daily , weekly and monthly. Again only a handful of times in history where the index hasn't returned to the 200 average in a calendar year.

$SPX | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

$SPX | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

SPX+m+sept10.png (1250×1200) (bp.blogspot.com)

[Deleted User]

I don't know if it is the media trying to whip up fear, but the drums seem to be beating that it's going to be a winter of discontent. 

Electricity and gas shortages, blackouts, inflation, shortage of workers and food. Possible three days weeks. I have moved another 5% of my assets into gold and silver. And will be holding a couple of thousand in cash. Not at the stage of storing tinned food.......yet! Crypto I have but not much use currently. 

My biggest concert is the price of electricity and gas. Not so much the consumer side of things, but the impact it will have on industry. The company that produced 60% of the UKs C02 has already closed down due to gas costs until they can make the factory be sustainable. They are currently speaking to the gov.

In addition I understand May ordered a "rough" oil/gas storage facility to be closed in her time in power, as a result the UK has very little reserves. I won't pretend to understand what this facility does, but the media quote an adviser claiming it is bad. 

Anyway all this equals reasons I want to have alternative wealth at hand. Just in case. 

wmb194

Deleted_User said:

I don't know if it is the media trying to whip up fear, but the drums seem to be beating that it's going to be a winter of discontent. 

Electricity and gas shortages, blackouts, inflation, shortage of workers and food. Possible three days weeks. I have moved another 5% of my assets into gold and silver. And will be holding a couple of thousand in cash. Not at the stage of storing tinned food.......yet! Crypto I have but not much use currently. 

My biggest concert is the price of electricity and gas. Not so much the consumer side of things, but the impact it will have on industry. The company that produced 60% of the UKs C02 has already closed down due to gas costs until they can make the factory be sustainable. They are currently speaking to the gov.

In addition I understand May ordered a "rough" oil/gas storage facility to be closed in her time in power, as a result the UK has very little reserves. I won't pretend to understand what this facility does, but the media quote an adviser claiming it is bad. 

Anyway all this equals reasons I want to have alternative wealth at hand. Just in case. 

Owned by Centrica, Rough was a gas field that was turned to storage. When I was growing up it was often mentioned in the news. I seriously doubt "May" or the government ordered it closed; my recollection is that it kept springing leaks and it became much too difficult to keep it operating.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/20/uk-gas-storage-prices-rough-british-gas-centrica

[Deleted User]

wmb194 said:

Deleted_User said:

I don't know if it is the media trying to whip up fear, but the drums seem to be beating that it's going to be a winter of discontent. 

Electricity and gas shortages, blackouts, inflation, shortage of workers and food. Possible three days weeks. I have moved another 5% of my assets into gold and silver. And will be holding a couple of thousand in cash. Not at the stage of storing tinned food.......yet! Crypto I have but not much use currently. 

My biggest concert is the price of electricity and gas. Not so much the consumer side of things, but the impact it will have on industry. The company that produced 60% of the UKs C02 has already closed down due to gas costs until they can make the factory be sustainable. They are currently speaking to the gov.

In addition I understand May ordered a "rough" oil/gas storage facility to be closed in her time in power, as a result the UK has very little reserves. I won't pretend to understand what this facility does, but the media quote an adviser claiming it is bad. 

Anyway all this equals reasons I want to have alternative wealth at hand. Just in case. 

Owned by Centrica, Rough was a gas field that was turned to storage. When I was growing up it was often mentioned in the news. I seriously doubt "May" or the government ordered it closed; my recollection is that it kept springing leaks and it became much too difficult to keep it operating.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/20/uk-gas-storage-prices-rough-british-gas-centrica

From my understanding, they (GOV) had to OK it being closed. They were advised not to do this yet. The Gov OK'd it

And they did not build a new one because it was not economical. In other words no profit could be made.

wmb194

Deleted_User said:

wmb194 said:

Deleted_User said:

I don't know if it is the media trying to whip up fear, but the drums seem to be beating that it's going to be a winter of discontent. 

Electricity and gas shortages, blackouts, inflation, shortage of workers and food. Possible three days weeks. I have moved another 5% of my assets into gold and silver. And will be holding a couple of thousand in cash. Not at the stage of storing tinned food.......yet! Crypto I have but not much use currently. 

My biggest concert is the price of electricity and gas. Not so much the consumer side of things, but the impact it will have on industry. The company that produced 60% of the UKs C02 has already closed down due to gas costs until they can make the factory be sustainable. They are currently speaking to the gov.

In addition I understand May ordered a "rough" oil/gas storage facility to be closed in her time in power, as a result the UK has very little reserves. I won't pretend to understand what this facility does, but the media quote an adviser claiming it is bad. 

Anyway all this equals reasons I want to have alternative wealth at hand. Just in case. 

Owned by Centrica, Rough was a gas field that was turned to storage. When I was growing up it was often mentioned in the news. I seriously doubt "May" or the government ordered it closed; my recollection is that it kept springing leaks and it became much too difficult to keep it operating.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/20/uk-gas-storage-prices-rough-british-gas-centrica

From my understanding, they (GOV) had to OK it being closed. They were advised not to do this yet. The Gov OK'd it

And they did not build a new one because it was not economical. In other words no profit could be made.

I don't know but it's irrelevant. You cannot force private companies to things at a loss* and it was clearly end-of-life.

*Not for long, anyway, as it's discovering this week with its energy price caps.

[Deleted User]

wmb194 said:

Deleted_User said:

wmb194 said:

Deleted_User said:

I don't know if it is the media trying to whip up fear, but the drums seem to be beating that it's going to be a winter of discontent. 

Electricity and gas shortages, blackouts, inflation, shortage of workers and food. Possible three days weeks. I have moved another 5% of my assets into gold and silver. And will be holding a couple of thousand in cash. Not at the stage of storing tinned food.......yet! Crypto I have but not much use currently. 

My biggest concert is the price of electricity and gas. Not so much the consumer side of things, but the impact it will have on industry. The company that produced 60% of the UKs C02 has already closed down due to gas costs until they can make the factory be sustainable. They are currently speaking to the gov.

In addition I understand May ordered a "rough" oil/gas storage facility to be closed in her time in power, as a result the UK has very little reserves. I won't pretend to understand what this facility does, but the media quote an adviser claiming it is bad. 

Anyway all this equals reasons I want to have alternative wealth at hand. Just in case. 

Owned by Centrica, Rough was a gas field that was turned to storage. When I was growing up it was often mentioned in the news. I seriously doubt "May" or the government ordered it closed; my recollection is that it kept springing leaks and it became much too difficult to keep it operating.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/20/uk-gas-storage-prices-rough-british-gas-centrica

From my understanding, they (GOV) had to OK it being closed. They were advised not to do this yet. The Gov OK'd it

And they did not build a new one because it was not economical. In other words no profit could be made.

I don't know but it's irrelevant. You cannot force private companies to things at a loss* and it was clearly end-of-life.

*Not for long, anyway, as it's discovering this week with its energy price caps.

I can see them all being nationalised like the railways if it gets bad. Key elements of our infrastructure should really not be owned by private companies. The two plants which produce carbon gas 60% of it, that is used heavily, one of them is owned by the Americans. When will the gov learn they need to own it all and invest in it. 

wmb194

[Deleted User] said:

wmb194 said:

[Deleted User] said:

wmb194 said:

[Deleted User] said:

I don't know if it is the media trying to whip up fear, but the drums seem to be beating that it's going to be a winter of discontent. 

Electricity and gas shortages, blackouts, inflation, shortage of workers and food. Possible three days weeks. I have moved another 5% of my assets into gold and silver. And will be holding a couple of thousand in cash. Not at the stage of storing tinned food.......yet! Crypto I have but not much use currently. 

My biggest concert is the price of electricity and gas. Not so much the consumer side of things, but the impact it will have on industry. The company that produced 60% of the UKs C02 has already closed down due to gas costs until they can make the factory be sustainable. They are currently speaking to the gov.

In addition I understand May ordered a "rough" oil/gas storage facility to be closed in her time in power, as a result the UK has very little reserves. I won't pretend to understand what this facility does, but the media quote an adviser claiming it is bad. 

Anyway all this equals reasons I want to have alternative wealth at hand. Just in case. 

Owned by Centrica, Rough was a gas field that was turned to storage. When I was growing up it was often mentioned in the news. I seriously doubt "May" or the government ordered it closed; my recollection is that it kept springing leaks and it became much too difficult to keep it operating.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/20/uk-gas-storage-prices-rough-british-gas-centrica

From my understanding, they (GOV) had to OK it being closed. They were advised not to do this yet. The Gov OK'd it

And they did not build a new one because it was not economical. In other words no profit could be made.

I don't know but it's irrelevant. You cannot force private companies to things at a loss* and it was clearly end-of-life.

*Not for long, anyway, as it's discovering this week with its energy price caps.

I can see them all being nationalised like the railways if it gets bad. Key elements of our infrastructure should really not be owned by private companies. The two plants which produce carbon gas 60% of it, that is used heavily, one of them is owned by the Americans. When will the gov learn they need to own it all and invest in it. 

I completely disagree. That didn't work before - just ask your grandparents - and there's no reason to believe it'll work next time. Given that they can legislate, incentivise and regulate governments / countries don't need to own things. We'll muddle through, these things happen from time to time and the current issues also aren't unique to Britain at the moment.