Is bitcoin just a giant game of “chicken”?

Scottex99

Don’t have it tracked but majority I bought roughly $4-12k after Corona first crashed the market. I buy lightly most days maybe 1-2k per month

[Deleted User]

Right, so firstly, very well done.
Secondly, you are on a completely different footing to anyone looking to enter the market today:- if the price halves and halves again, you’re still in profit. 
I can see why you want to promote the idea of investing in bitcoin,  Scottex but - given the wild gyrations of its price - may be prudent to wait for it to reverse its trend down imo.

barnstar2077

Scottex99 said:

CityBoyTheSecond said:

Those who got some bitcoin early made a profit. Those getting in now can only profit if some bigger fool buys their bitcoin at a higher price when they want to sell. Bitcoin, in and of itself, cannot increase its value. It is just a speculative token.

How many years does it have to increase in value before you realise you're wrong? 12 so far

Yes, but the real question is why has it increased?  Is it because the profits are being reinvested back into the underlying assets* to make them more productive, or is it because more and more people have been drawn to the prospect of a quick buck?

It is possible that Bitcoin is here to stay, but it could also end in tears (government intervention, public opinion because of power usage, people getting bored and moving on to something else.)  As I said before, the people that promote / defend it are the ones that have the most to lose.  No one wants to be the guy that buys near the end should the bubble burst, so they need to convince as many as possible to buy it too!

*there aren't any underlying assets.

barnstar2077

moneysavinghero said:

A lot of cryptocurrency is sold as millenniums vs boomers. Almost like the millenniums think buying bitcoin is sticking it to the boomers (maybe it is, who knows). I wonder was it going to happen when the younger generation become the new old gits and are telling all the young people about how amazing these Bitcoins these are. Will all those young whippersnappers listen to the old timers or will they want to stick it to the old men and have their own thing?

This reminds me of a conversation I was having with my nineteen year old nephew the other day.  I was complaining about the fact that the moral compass of the world seems to be decided by a few thousand people on Twitter, and he said "young people don't use Twitter."  We all know how social media sites are often replaced by the next big thing.  It seems developers think crypto currencies could fall in and out of favour quickly too, which is why there is a new one every day waiting to take your money. 

Scottex99

ZingPowZing said:

Right, so firstly, very well done.
Secondly, you are on a completely different footing to anyone looking to enter the market today:- if the price halves and halves again, you’re still in profit. 
I can see why you want to promote the idea of investing in bitcoin,  Scottex but - given the wild gyrations of its price - may be prudent to wait for it to reverse its trend down imo.

 Valid points but promote is the wrong word before anyone starts on that. I don't need to convince anyone here and hope that their £25 buy of BTC somehow pumps my bags, lol. I've been working in the industry since 2018, doesn't mean I'm right but I'm expecting it to break $100k within the next 12 months.

And to add colour, the first time I bought was at $19k. Then a horrible bear market hit and crashed the price. Then corona hit and crashed it again. It wasn't easy but I kept buying and hodling the whole way down. I bought bits and pieces at $50-60k too. Nothing I can't afford to lose and imo we're going to look back in a few years and wish we could buy BTC at $38k again.

Scottex99

barnstar2077 said:

Scottex99 said:

CityBoyTheSecond said:

Those who got some bitcoin early made a profit. Those getting in now can only profit if some bigger fool buys their bitcoin at a higher price when they want to sell. Bitcoin, in and of itself, cannot increase its value. It is just a speculative token.

How many years does it have to increase in value before you realise you're wrong? 12 so far

Yes, but the real question is why has it increased?  Is it because the profits are being reinvested back into the underlying assets* to make them more productive, or is it because more and more people have been drawn to the prospect of a quick buck?

It is possible that Bitcoin is here to stay, but it could also end in tears (government intervention, public opinion because of power usage, people getting bored and moving on to something else.)  As I said before, the people that promote / defend it are the ones that have the most to lose.  No one wants to be the guy that buys near the end should the bubble burst, so they need to convince as many as possible to buy it too!

*there aren't any underlying assets.

Neither.

I don't need to convince anyone, especially not here. Do you really think if some random on this forum downloads Coinbase and buys 100 quid of BTC, that somehow benefits me? I support the asset as its hard decentralised deflationary "money". I say "money" because BTC is more of a store of value now and i'd never really dream of spending mine. There are hundreds of other cryptos i'd use for payments instead.

I work for/co-founded a crypto trading company that is fully regulated and has 9 bank accounts. Regulation is coming, some are set up for it, some are not. Even the most anal regulation doesn't actually stop coins being moved around.

Moving onto something else like what? BTC at least is Gold 2.0. You can fork BTC whenever you want, it's happened a few times, what you can't get is the community behind it, so it's just another dead zombie coin worth zero.

BTC is going nowhere, wouldn't surprise me to see it at $250-300k one day, let's see.

barnstar2077

Scottex99 said:

barnstar2077 said:

Scottex99 said:

CityBoyTheSecond said:

Those who got some bitcoin early made a profit. Those getting in now can only profit if some bigger fool buys their bitcoin at a higher price when they want to sell. Bitcoin, in and of itself, cannot increase its value. It is just a speculative token.

How many years does it have to increase in value before you realise you're wrong? 12 so far

Yes, but the real question is why has it increased?  Is it because the profits are being reinvested back into the underlying assets* to make them more productive, or is it because more and more people have been drawn to the prospect of a quick buck?

It is possible that Bitcoin is here to stay, but it could also end in tears (government intervention, public opinion because of power usage, people getting bored and moving on to something else.)  As I said before, the people that promote / defend it are the ones that have the most to lose.  No one wants to be the guy that buys near the end should the bubble burst, so they need to convince as many as possible to buy it too!

*there aren't any underlying assets.

Neither.

I don't need to convince anyone, especially not here. Do you really think if some random on this forum downloads Coinbase and buys 100 quid of BTC, that somehow benefits me? I support the asset as its hard decentralised deflationary "money". I say "money" because BTC is more of a store of value now and i'd never really dream of spending mine. There are hundreds of other cryptos i'd use for payments instead.

I work for/co-founded a crypto trading company that is fully regulated and has 9 bank accounts. Regulation is coming, some are set up for it, some are not. Even the most anal regulation doesn't actually stop coins being moved around.

Moving onto something else like what? BTC at least is Gold 2.0. You can fork BTC whenever you want, it's happened a few times, what you can't get is the community behind it, so it's just another dead zombie coin worth zero.

BTC is going nowhere, wouldn't surprise me to see it at $250-300k one day, let's see.

As others have said, gold is actually physically useful, so is not really comparable.

You may well be right, bitcoin could be here to stay.  Or, thirty years from now economic professors could be chuckling during lectures to students about the early time of crypto currencies when many people bought bitcoin for fear of missing out.  As you say, only time will tell!

Scottex99

Not easily divisible though is it? I can send you 1 Sat (a millionth of a BTC) or any variation on that amount, right now and you'll have it in your wallet in 5 mins. How you gonna send me some gold, in the post?

barnstar2077

Scottex99 said:

Not easily divisible though is it? I can send you 1 Sat (a millionth of a BTC) or any variation on that amount, right now and you'll have it in your wallet in 5 mins. How you gonna send me some gold, in the post?

Chlamydia is easily transferred, does that make it desirable?

Scottex99

barnstar2077 said:

Scottex99 said:

Not easily divisible though is it? I can send you 1 Sat (a millionth of a BTC) or any variation on that amount, right now and you'll have it in your wallet in 5 mins. How you gonna send me some gold, in the post?

Chlamydia is easily transferred, does that make it desirable?

Weird flex but ok