House buying risks

getmore4less

BikingBud said:

Crashy_Time said:

I like some aspects of this house, and other aspects I`m not so sure, but the 175k price drop so far is good.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/77494609#/
People just need to be careful that they keep an eye on realistic value if they are buying in this market IMO.

As kite flying goes that is quite spectacular.
Last sold £283,500 https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=63150550&sale=55763924&country=england
Now after "** WOW ** FULL REFURBISHMENT **" reduced from £725k to £550k and what's more they've taken a lot of character out of the house. Emperor's new clothes anyone?

Makes you wonder about the cashflow implications dropping £175k and still not selling after 15 months.

that £283,500 sale was on the back of a £329 asking price
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/63150550#/

Ozzuk

Crashy_Time said

Governments can stop a lot of things, but they can`t stop sellers trying to chase the market down.
I like some aspects of this house, and other aspects I`m not so sure, but the 175k price drop so far is good.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/77494609#/
People just need to be careful that they keep an eye on realistic value if they are buying in this market IMO.

To be clear, your continued argument that everything is doomed is based on a house that someone bought, improved and tried a 'punt' price and is now still selling for vastly more than bought (of course we don't know reno costs). And your argument to dismiss the predicted economy growth is of course it will rise because its fallen.  You are desperately hanging on to an agenda that isn't reflected in reality, the crash you predicted didn't happen, and if it didn't happen during the massive downturn you just referenced it isn't going to happen on the upswing.  Of course Covid may turn around and change all our plans!

SpiderLegs

Ozzuk said:

Crashy_Time said

Governments can stop a lot of things, but they can`t stop sellers trying to chase the market down.
I like some aspects of this house, and other aspects I`m not so sure, but the 175k price drop so far is good.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/77494609#/
People just need to be careful that they keep an eye on realistic value if they are buying in this market IMO.

To be clear, your continued argument that everything is doomed is based on a house that someone bought, improved and tried a 'punt' price and is now still selling for vastly more than bought (of course we don't know reno costs). And your argument to dismiss the predicted economy growth is of course it will rise because its fallen.  You are desperately hanging on to an agenda that isn't reflected in reality, the crash you predicted didn't happen, and if it didn't happen during the massive downturn you just referenced it isn't going to happen on the upswing.  Of course Covid may turn around and change all our plans!

Yes but what about those US employment figures?????????????

getmore4less

There is no real issue for the OP,

They are looking at a 3bed house for studio money
they have around double that spare to do it up overpay etc.
They could get a lodger and smash the mortgage in a few years or cover it if they lost their job.

It would need every crash duck to line up in a row and topple like dominoes for the OP to be in trouble.

Seems the houses will be cheaper tomorrow is so intrenched that even when they do drop and bottom out they are so convinced they will drop again they mis the great opportunity to get in at the low or just after they start rising again

TBagpuss

BikingBud said:

Crashy_Time said:

I like some aspects of this house, and other aspects I`m not so sure, but the 175k price drop so far is good.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/77494609#/
People just need to be careful that they keep an eye on realistic value if they are buying in this market IMO.

As kite flying goes that is quite spectacular.
Last sold £283,500 https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=63150550&sale=55763924&country=england
Now after "** WOW ** FULL REFURBISHMENT **" reduced from £725k to £550k and what's more they've taken a lot of character out of the house. Emperor's new clothes anyone?

Makes you wonder about the cashflow implications dropping £175k and still not selling after 15 months.

What a shame - they've taken every scrap of character out of that house - it' a shame - if they'd simply changed the layout to provide for the bigger bathroom on the first floor, and bathroom on the second floor, they could have added value and kept the original character and features .

Mickey666

BikingBud said:

Crashy_Time said:

I like some aspects of this house, and other aspects I`m not so sure, but the 175k price drop so far is good.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/77494609#/
People just need to be careful that they keep an eye on realistic value if they are buying in this market IMO.

As kite flying goes that is quite spectacular.
Last sold £283,500 https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=63150550&sale=55763924&country=england
Now after "** WOW ** FULL REFURBISHMENT **" reduced from £725k to £550k and what's more they've taken a lot of character out of the house. Emperor's new clothes anyone?

Makes you wonder about the cashflow implications dropping £175k and still not selling after 15 months.

Exactly!  The ticket price means nothing, except that the sellers are want to sell for the highest possible price (who doesn't?) and probably don't have any idea of what the highest price might be, so they start with a ridiculously high price and let 'the market' come to them as they gradually reduce the price until someone bites.  When that eventually happens, THAT will be the market price.  The fact that they might need to drop their price by a few hundred thou DOES NOT, in this case, indicate that house prices are falling, only that the asking price is too high.

Unrealistic asking prices happen all the time, in fact it's pretty much human nature, but they mean nothing in terms of 'the market'.  Only the actual sold prices really matter in that respect.

Mickey666

getmore4less said:

There is no real issue for the OP,

They are looking at a 3bed house for studio money
they have around double that spare to do it up overpay etc.
They could get a lodger and smash the mortgage in a few years or cover it if they lost their job.

It would need every crash duck to line up in a row and topple like dominoes for the OP to be in trouble.

Seems the houses will be cheaper tomorrow is so intrenched that even when they do drop and bottom out they are so convinced they will drop again they mis the great opportunity to get in at the low or just after they start rising again

Yep.  Buying a home instead of renting one is so overwhelmingly advantageous over a lifetime (and we all need somewhere to live out our lives!) that the only real question is HOW MUCH financial advantage is gained.  Fact is, some home buyers will end up better off than others, depending on a whole load of parameters, but over the long term they'll ALL benefit financially.

Buying a home IS is big step, a daunting step, and for some people overwhelmingly so.  I well remember agonising over buying my first home - could I REALLY afford it?  What if this happened, what if that happened, what if something I hadn't even thought about happened?   But within a few years I couldn't believe I'd agonised over the decision.  After 3 years I was moved to a bigger house but with a proportionally cheaper mortgage . . . and so it went on.  I now wish I had committed earlier!   
If I hadn't bought my own home, I couldn't have afforded to retire early because I'd be needing to find around £3500 a month to rent the house I'm now living in . . . . which I would not have been able to afford anyway!

People need somewhere to live for their entire lives so THAT should be their planning timescale . . . not the next few months or even years.  What happens to house prices this year or next won't matter a jot in 20 years time.  What will matter in 20 years time is whether you're still paying rent or whether you're living in your own home with the end of your mortgage in sight and no further housing costs for the remainder of your life.

Sunsaru

Mickey666 said:

getmore4less said:

There is no real issue for the OP,

They are looking at a 3bed house for studio money
they have around double that spare to do it up overpay etc.
They could get a lodger and smash the mortgage in a few years or cover it if they lost their job.

It would need every crash duck to line up in a row and topple like dominoes for the OP to be in trouble.

Seems the houses will be cheaper tomorrow is so intrenched that even when they do drop and bottom out they are so convinced they will drop again they mis the great opportunity to get in at the low or just after they start rising again

Yep.  Buying a home instead of renting one is so overwhelmingly advantageous over a lifetime (and we all need somewhere to live out our lives!) that the only real question is HOW MUCH financial advantage is gained.  Fact is, some home buyers will end up better off than others, depending on a whole load of parameters, but over the long term they'll ALL benefit financially.

Buying a home IS is big step, a daunting step, and for some people overwhelmingly so.  I well remember agonising over buying my first home - could I REALLY afford it?  What if this happened, what if that happened, what if something I hadn't even thought about happened?   But within a few years I couldn't believe I'd agonised over the decision.  After 3 years I was moved to a bigger house but with a proportionally cheaper mortgage . . . and so it went on.  I now wish I had committed earlier!   
If I hadn't bought my own home, I couldn't have afforded to retire early because I'd be needing to find around £3500 a month to rent the house I'm now living in . . . . which I would not have been able to afford anyway!

People need somewhere to live for their entire lives so THAT should be their planning timescale . . . not the next few months or even years.  What happens to house prices this year or next won't matter a jot in 20 years time.  What will matter in 20 years time is whether you're still paying rent or whether you're living in your own home with the end of your mortgage in sight and no further housing costs for the remainder of your life.

Although I wholeheartedly agree with everything you say, I must point out that buying a house is not for everyone. For some the risks are to great and/or they just don't want that responsibility.
Both options have their pros and cons, but for you,me and a whole host of others, the pro's outweigh the cons.
Buying a house for me has been a lifelong dream and ranks only second to being a dad.

Mickey666

Sunsaru said:

Mickey666 said:

getmore4less said:

There is no real issue for the OP,

They are looking at a 3bed house for studio money
they have around double that spare to do it up overpay etc.
They could get a lodger and smash the mortgage in a few years or cover it if they lost their job.

It would need every crash duck to line up in a row and topple like dominoes for the OP to be in trouble.

Seems the houses will be cheaper tomorrow is so intrenched that even when they do drop and bottom out they are so convinced they will drop again they mis the great opportunity to get in at the low or just after they start rising again

Yep.  Buying a home instead of renting one is so overwhelmingly advantageous over a lifetime (and we all need somewhere to live out our lives!) that the only real question is HOW MUCH financial advantage is gained.  Fact is, some home buyers will end up better off than others, depending on a whole load of parameters, but over the long term they'll ALL benefit financially.

Buying a home IS is big step, a daunting step, and for some people overwhelmingly so.  I well remember agonising over buying my first home - could I REALLY afford it?  What if this happened, what if that happened, what if something I hadn't even thought about happened?   But within a few years I couldn't believe I'd agonised over the decision.  After 3 years I was moved to a bigger house but with a proportionally cheaper mortgage . . . and so it went on.  I now wish I had committed earlier!   
If I hadn't bought my own home, I couldn't have afforded to retire early because I'd be needing to find around £3500 a month to rent the house I'm now living in . . . . which I would not have been able to afford anyway!

People need somewhere to live for their entire lives so THAT should be their planning timescale . . . not the next few months or even years.  What happens to house prices this year or next won't matter a jot in 20 years time.  What will matter in 20 years time is whether you're still paying rent or whether you're living in your own home with the end of your mortgage in sight and no further housing costs for the remainder of your life.

Although I wholeheartedly agree with everything you say, I must point out that buying a house is not for everyone. For some the risks are to great and/or they just don't want that responsibility.
Both options have their pros and cons, but for you,me and a whole host of others, the pro's outweigh the cons.
Buying a house for me has been a lifelong dream and ranks only second to being a dad.

I was focusing purely on the financial aspects because that's the focus for a money-saving forum, but you raise a very fair point that there are other non-financial considerations as well - if you can afford them

Crashy_Time

Ozzuk said:

Crashy_Time said

Governments can stop a lot of things, but they can`t stop sellers trying to chase the market down.
I like some aspects of this house, and other aspects I`m not so sure, but the 175k price drop so far is good.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/77494609#/
People just need to be careful that they keep an eye on realistic value if they are buying in this market IMO.

To be clear, your continued argument that everything is doomed is based on a house that someone bought, improved and tried a 'punt' price and is now still selling for vastly more than bought (of course we don't know reno costs). And your argument to dismiss the predicted economy growth is of course it will rise because its fallen.  You are desperately hanging on to an agenda that isn't reflected in reality, the crash you predicted didn't happen, and if it didn't happen during the massive downturn you just referenced it isn't going to happen on the upswing.  Of course Covid may turn around and change all our plans!

Can`t remember saying everything is doomed, where do you think I said that?  I am saying that we have an obvious property bubble propped up by near zero rates and money printing and that the also very obviously choreographed attempts at getting inflation (Amazon, McDonalds etc. coming out within an hour of each other announcing 10% wage hikes etc.) to counteract a massive deflationary demand shock risk pushing mortgage rates up on the "upswing" as you call it, and people need to be aware of how much mortgage debt they are getting into for property that may be cheaper in future, that`s all.