Has an era come to an end?

Gadfium

Betteridge's Law of Headlines applies here....

Alexland

coastline said:

I'm not expecting crash as we've just had one. Just blow a bit off the top.

In recent weeks there seems to have been an absence of notable bad news or moments of reflection to stop this party. Every day our investments seem to be going up by more than I can earn in a month. Getting strong flashbacks to the euphoria of the dot com era. A correction or period of earnings catchup would be welcome to keep valuations within the upper limits of reasonable.

ratechaser

Alexland said:

coastline said:

I'm not expecting crash as we've just had one. Just blow a bit off the top.

In recent weeks there seems to have been an absence of notable bad news or moments of reflection to stop this party. Every day our investments seem to be going up by more than I can earn in a month. Getting strong flashbacks to the euphoria of the dot com era. A correction or period of earnings catchup would be welcome to keep valuations within the upper limits of reasonable.

Well if you think it's coming you could always move to cash for the time being and then buy the dip 

It has been a good few weeks though. My pension growth has outpaced my earnings by some distance!

MaxiRobriguez

Alexland said:

coastline said:

I'm not expecting crash as we've just had one. Just blow a bit off the top.

In recent weeks there seems to have been an absence of notable bad news or moments of reflection to stop this party. Every day our investments seem to be going up by more than I can earn in a month. Getting strong flashbacks to the euphoria of the dot com era. A correction or period of earnings catchup would be welcome to keep valuations within the upper limits of reasonable.

Wasn't around for the dot com party but was saying to friends this morning it's been a one way bet recently - 95% of my stocks have been green every day for the last two weeks and they're all strong gains (1%+) daily too. 

I've started to look at taking some gains, not add to positions. 

ratechaser

MaxiRobriguez said:

Alexland said:

coastline said:

I'm not expecting crash as we've just had one. Just blow a bit off the top.

In recent weeks there seems to have been an absence of notable bad news or moments of reflection to stop this party. Every day our investments seem to be going up by more than I can earn in a month. Getting strong flashbacks to the euphoria of the dot com era. A correction or period of earnings catchup would be welcome to keep valuations within the upper limits of reasonable.

Wasn't around for the dot com party but was saying to friends this morning it's been a one way bet recently - 95% of my stocks have been green every day for the last two weeks and they're all strong gains (1%+) daily too. 

I've started to look at taking some gains, not add to positions. 

I was, it was my first experience of a crash while working in finance. We had all been given this extra 'bonus' in 2000 in the form of a highly leveraged stake in a private equity fund for dot coms. At the time we were told that we could expect 40%+ returns on it each year for ever. There genuinely was that much euphoria that 'this' was a truly sustainable technology revolution.

I think we all got about £800 when they wound the fund up 6 years later. Was surprised to even get that!

Alexland

ratechaser said:

Well if you think it's coming you could always move to cash for the time being and then buy the dip 

Problem is there is always a crash or correction coming and I know well enough that more money is wasted sitting on the sidelines in anticipation of the drops than just staying the course. Still interest rates on cash JISAs are attractive enough maybe I should move the kids back to cash again to slightly derisk the family portfolio by a percent or two. That worked out very well for them about 18 months ago. Hmm. Fidelity might be surprised that they can't even give their service away for free without people transferring out.

ratechaser said:

It has been a good few weeks though. My pension growth has outpaced my earnings by some distance!

Yes a couple of months ago I did my annual forecast for where I wanted us to be at the end of this new tax year as a result of new money contributions into various accounts (which I know is pointless given the volatility of assets but I do like to have a short term plan to aim for and see results against) and we are almost there already!

I was just helping a friend at work with his capital gains tax position from making more than I could earn in a decade on crypto. He's a very clever guy and we have been chatting about it for years but yes even with these S&S gains it's pretty humbling to see his crypto gains especially as they cost him nothing more than his time and home computer processing power. That's the way to do crypto.

ratechaser

Alexland said:

ratechaser said:

Well if you think it's coming you could always move to cash for the time being and then buy the dip 

Problem is there is always a crash or correction coming and I know well enough that more money is wasted sitting on the sidelines in anticipation of the drops than just staying the course. Still interest rates on cash JISAs are attractive enough maybe I should move the kids back to cash again to slightly derisk the family portfolio by a percent or two. That worked out very well for them about 18 months ago. Hmm. Fidelity might be surprised that they can't even give their service away for free without people transferring out.

ratechaser said:

It has been a good few weeks though. My pension growth has outpaced my earnings by some distance!

Yes a couple of months ago I did my annual forecast for where I wanted us to be at the end of this new tax year as a result of new money contributions into various accounts (which I know is pointless given the volatility of assets but I do like to have a short term plan to aim for and see results against) and we are almost there already!

I was just helping a friend at work with his capital gains tax position from making more than I could earn in a decade on crypto. He's a very clever guy and we have been chatting about it for years but yes even with these S&S gains it's pretty humbling to see his crypto gains especially as they cost him nothing more than his time and home computer processing power. That's the way to do crypto.

I'm resisting the urge to tinker right now, but if I did, it would probably just be to move my Vanguard pension from VLS80 to cash. It's only about 5% of the total of my pensions, so a very minor hedge in the scheme of things.

And to your last point, I have a US friend that keeps posting pictures on Facebook of the mining rig he has set up in his kitchen at home. Takes up most of the worktop, I have no idea what his wife makes of it but he does appear to be making some money - if you are going to do crypto, I agree that's the way (flatulentoldgoat please take note...).

And always assuming you have a good deal on your energy bills! That scene in Billions where Axe's son caused a city blackout due to stealing electricity for mining was quite funny...

stephenadarglas

I've been taking some profits over the last few months and adding it to my cash holding in my SIPP which in turn increases my monthly drawdown payment.  Deaccumulation in action where appropriate.

Thrugelmir

Alexland said:

coastline said:

I'm not expecting crash as we've just had one. Just blow a bit off the top.

In recent weeks there seems to have been an absence of notable bad news or moments of reflection to stop this party. Every day our investments seem to be going up by more than I can earn in a month. Getting strong flashbacks to the euphoria of the dot com era. A correction or period of earnings catchup would be welcome to keep valuations within the upper limits of reasonable.

Investors become more optimistic as spring arrives. Hence the old stock market adage "Sell in May and go away, come back on St. Leger’s Day". 

ratechaser

Thrugelmir said:

Alexland said:

coastline said:

I'm not expecting crash as we've just had one. Just blow a bit off the top.

In recent weeks there seems to have been an absence of notable bad news or moments of reflection to stop this party. Every day our investments seem to be going up by more than I can earn in a month. Getting strong flashbacks to the euphoria of the dot com era. A correction or period of earnings catchup would be welcome to keep valuations within the upper limits of reasonable.

Investors become more optimistic as spring arrives. Hence the old stock market adage "Sell in May and go away, come back on St. Leger’s Day". 

I thought that was because the traders of old had nice country houses to go to in summer (away from the ripe odours of London) and wanted to clear their exposure while they were away... no phones or DMA back then...