I don't trust the stock market...

John464

Doc_N said:

John464 said:

JulieRight said:

I've made a few threads on here asking for investing advice... im confused.. if now is a good time to invest.. it feels like the top and the bottom is a long way down..stock market is all time high during a pandemic.. this makes no sense at all.... stimulus money inflating prices.. what happens when all this ends... I've literally been stuck inside since Christmas on etoro... how many others are too around the globe...especially America? all this is inflating stock prices... what happens when life goes back to normal, furlough ends, and no more stimulus money...???? how on earth do people think the stock market will continue to rise at its current rate..just look at SPX500 chart...it doesn't look real..??? it's going to go down over the next 2-3 years like it did in the 2000 crash.... I really want to invest 150k but I know something bad is on the horizon... this virus has not been for nothing..... house market, stock market, crypto... the lot is about to crash... after the summer... I have a vanguard account... I won't invest it in.. now feels like top of the market.. just look at all the charts... it is comical.. everyone is stuck at home sucked inside a bubble... doing nothing but investing.... it is like a big pressure cooker... lift the lid i.e. covid restrictions and the market will plummet!!! 

this could all be wrong and it will continue to rise but how?? what will make it rise..?? the economic recovery?? 

You seem to have covered everything except the inflation risk from holding cash

How would you describe the level of that inflation risk, as against the risk of a one week 50% fall if sentiment changes?

When I look at the increasing debt, the damage from Brexit, and our current Government, I am more worried about the pound than the stock market.  So I am 83% equities, 17% cash  
If I was ignoring inflation like the OP, I would be 100% cash. 

sevenhills

John464 said:

When I look at the increasing debt, the damage from Brexit, and our current Government, I am more worried about the pound than the stock market.  So I am 83% equities, 17% cash  
If I was ignoring inflation like the OP, I would be 100% cash. 

Isn't lower Sterling good for the FTSE?

sevenhills

JulieRight said:

I really want to invest 150k but I know something bad is on the horizon... this virus has not been for nothing..... house market, stock market, crypto... the lot is about to crash... after the summer... I have a vanguard account... I won't invest it in.. now feels like top of the market.. just look at all the charts... it is comical..

If you look at the FSTE it's at the same level it was at 4 years ago, compare that to the Dow and that is 33,800 now, but it was 18,500 4 years ago.

Thrugelmir

sevenhills said:

JulieRight said:

I really want to invest 150k but I know something bad is on the horizon... this virus has not been for nothing..... house market, stock market, crypto... the lot is about to crash... after the summer... I have a vanguard account... I won't invest it in.. now feels like top of the market.. just look at all the charts... it is comical..

If you look at the FSTE it's at the same level it was at 4 years ago, compare that to the Dow and that is 33,800 now, but it was 18,500 4 years ago.

Compare the P/E ratios on the stocks that have driven the US market upwards........  Nor forget that the pro market president has left the Oval Office. Biden has big plans that US corporates are going to provide funding for. 

JohnWinder

Savings accounts returns seem to have kept up with inflation in US. Here's the view from a slightly different perspective: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=345536&p=5937085#p5937085

John464

Thrugelmir said:

the pro market president has left the Oval Office

Trump may have been pro market, but I'm not sure his bellicose, unpredictable, erratic behaviour and trade wars did them any good.

John464

JohnWinder said:

Savings accounts seem to have kept up with inflation in US. Here's the view from a slightly different perspective: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=345536&p=5937085#p5937085

Are their inflation statistics any more trustworthy than ours?
(I can't take ours seriously when they ignore the biggest cost for many people - housing)

MovingForwards

Seems to be a reincarnation of someone who had £200k and didn't know whether to buy in Cambridge or Edinburgh.

John464

sevenhills said:

John464 said:

When I look at the increasing debt, the damage from Brexit, and our current Government, I am more worried about the pound than the stock market.  So I am 83% equities, 17% cash  
If I was ignoring inflation like the OP, I would be 100% cash. 

Isn't lower Sterling good for the FTSE?

Over 70% of FTSE100 income is earned abroad so lower sterling makes their foreign earnings worth more when measured in sterling.

moneysavinghero

Interest rates are at record lows and cant really get much lower. They will start rising at some point. How much and how quickly they rise will decide how much and how quickly the stock market will fall.