I don't trust the stock market...

dunstonh

I don't trust the stock market...

It isnt there to be trusted or untrusted.   The stockmarket is a bit like the weather.   It will be what it will be.

what happens when all this ends

There wont be a stockmarket any more.  There won't be anything any more. So, we won't care.  We won't be around to care.

. how many others are too around the globe...especially America?

Global diversification is sensible investing.    However, I do fear too many have jumped on US equity as being the thing just because of recent performance.   In the previous cycle, US equity underperformed everyone else.   The sector that is best in one period is often amongst the worst in the next and vice versa.

what happens when life goes back to normal, furlough ends, and no more stimulus money...?

We have had over a decade of stimulus.  

ow on earth do people think the stock market will continue to rise at its current rate..just look at SPX500 chart...it doesn't look real..?

PE Ratio certainly suggests it is over priced and ripe for a drop.  Its higher than it was in the depression and has only ever been higher in one previous period and that was the lead up to the dot.com crash.      So, concerns are valid.  However, PE ratios can fall without a major crash.   

it's going to go down over the next 2-3 years like it did in the 2000 crash.

If that was the general feeling it would already be happening.

I really want to invest 150k but I know something bad is on the horizon

There always is.

lift the lid i.e. covid restrictions and the market will plummet!!! 

There is absolutely no logic in that statement whatsoever.   The restrictions are hindering the markets.  The stimulus and support and weening off that is the problem.

csgohan4

OP everyone is Warren Buffet, in hindsight. 

if you continue to sit on the side lines, you will lose money to inflation and potential gains, also losses. However if your in it for the longterm, at least 10 years, then it wouldn't matter. 

Starting with hopefully less volatile index trackers would be reasonable until you find your feet. I would not delve into individual stocks, unless you like losing sleep. Not until your more confident and understand what you want to invest in and why

I made the jump last Summer into ISA's and never looked back. Made a few mistakes and ever still learning, but importantly know what your risk appetite is and stick to it and most of all don't gamble what you can't afford to lose. 

whatstheplan

OP, I was (and maybe a part of me still is) thinking the same as you i.e. a drop in prices is surely coming.  And tbh if I was a decade or so younger I maybe would hold off for 6-12 months before starting to invest just to see if there's any significant adjustment downwards.  However, at close to 50, every year I wait before I start investing has a consequence on my future success ... or otherwise!  So I've decided to go for it now, although I'm looking at leaving my investments for 9 years minimum.

Also, as others have said, no one actually knows what the market is going to do and when.  So if markets continue to rise over the coming year or so, I'd then be sitting April 2022 thinking 'why didn't you start this ride April 2021?!?'

In short, unless you're in that small bracket of investing gods that seem to have the knack for timing markets more often than not, you need to jump in at some point or not at all.  Same holds true for many things in life not just investing

mrlegend123

the stock market is not over-valued if you compare it to the freshly printed money supply. Money supply has nearly doubled due to covid... 

MaxiRobriguez

Stock markets are only expensive in the US, really, and they've been expensive in the US for about 3 or 4 years so it's no surprise they've continued to do well even during the pandemic.

If you're concerned about valuations then why not invest closer to home? You can have stocks like M&G which have a P/E <10 and pay a chunky 9% dividend despite having decent prospects. Plenty of others offering good value to - housebuilders, insurance, banks....

Alistair31

Probably not the best forum section to concern yourself with then.

Nebulous2

Cool - well done for elaborating that. I find myself with significant sums in cash for the first time. I had intended investing it passively for the long-term, but following your post I'm now going to put it in gold and a nuclear bunker.......

aroominyork

Julie - you are getting boring. There is no magic answer and starting new threads until one of us (whoever that might be) gives you what seems a magic answer is a pointless exercise. You might as well have titled your thread "I don't trust a bag of chips".

Doc_N

John464 said:

JulieRight said:

I've made a few threads on here asking for investing advice... im confused.. if now is a good time to invest.. it feels like the top and the bottom is a long way down..stock market is all time high during a pandemic.. this makes no sense at all.... stimulus money inflating prices.. what happens when all this ends... I've literally been stuck inside since Christmas on etoro... how many others are too around the globe...especially America? all this is inflating stock prices... what happens when life goes back to normal, furlough ends, and no more stimulus money...???? how on earth do people think the stock market will continue to rise at its current rate..just look at SPX500 chart...it doesn't look real..??? it's going to go down over the next 2-3 years like it did in the 2000 crash.... I really want to invest 150k but I know something bad is on the horizon... this virus has not been for nothing..... house market, stock market, crypto... the lot is about to crash... after the summer... I have a vanguard account... I won't invest it in.. now feels like top of the market.. just look at all the charts... it is comical.. everyone is stuck at home sucked inside a bubble... doing nothing but investing.... it is like a big pressure cooker... lift the lid i.e. covid restrictions and the market will plummet!!! 

this could all be wrong and it will continue to rise but how?? what will make it rise..?? the economic recovery?? 

You seem to have covered everything except the inflation risk from holding cash

How would you describe the level of that inflation risk, as against the risk of a one week 50% fall if sentiment changes?

Thrugelmir

Doc_N said:

John464 said:

JulieRight said:

I've made a few threads on here asking for investing advice... im confused.. if now is a good time to invest.. it feels like the top and the bottom is a long way down..stock market is all time high during a pandemic.. this makes no sense at all.... stimulus money inflating prices.. what happens when all this ends... I've literally been stuck inside since Christmas on etoro... how many others are too around the globe...especially America? all this is inflating stock prices... what happens when life goes back to normal, furlough ends, and no more stimulus money...???? how on earth do people think the stock market will continue to rise at its current rate..just look at SPX500 chart...it doesn't look real..??? it's going to go down over the next 2-3 years like it did in the 2000 crash.... I really want to invest 150k but I know something bad is on the horizon... this virus has not been for nothing..... house market, stock market, crypto... the lot is about to crash... after the summer... I have a vanguard account... I won't invest it in.. now feels like top of the market.. just look at all the charts... it is comical.. everyone is stuck at home sucked inside a bubble... doing nothing but investing.... it is like a big pressure cooker... lift the lid i.e. covid restrictions and the market will plummet!!! 

this could all be wrong and it will continue to rise but how?? what will make it rise..?? the economic recovery?? 

You seem to have covered everything except the inflation risk from holding cash

How would you describe the level of that inflation risk, as against the risk of a one week 50% fall if sentiment changes?

Investing £160k, even a 10% fall can be enough to give people sleepless nights. When it actually happens people then realise that their risk tolerance isn't as high as they originally thought. Last years sharp dip and recovery has merely reinforced the belief that stock markets are a one way bet.