Anyone else finding it impossible to buy right now?

MobileSaver

JJR45 said:

Repossessions restart today (nearly 100,000 in arrears) and evictions will start back up soon (estimated 840,000 in arrears), that could se a lot of unhappy BTL landlords selling up and repossessed properties coming to the market.

Those are big numbers you are quoting but the reality, as I'm sure you know, is that only a fraction of those will result in actual repossessions or evictions.

Fundamentally, whatever the number of repossessions or evictions, all those people still need to live somewhere so the impact on the housing supply/demand ratio will be minimal.

Even more fundamentally though, for the last forty years the UK has not been building enough housing to satisfy demand and even today the government is eight years behind its 300,000 a year target.

The above are just two of the fundamental reasons why Crashy's dream of a serious house price crash just ain't going to happen.

JJR45

SpiderLegs said:

JJR45 said:

SpiderLegs said:

No, you are trying to state forecasts as facts, they rarely are accurate. That is my point and have highlighted 2 that have been incorrect. One before and one after the pandemic.
If forecasts were right life would be easy as the future would be presented to us on a regular basis.

No you have that wrong too. If you don’t put much faith in GDP forecasts because you deem them to be historically inaccurate, don’t then use forecasts of unemployment or repossessions to make your own forecast on house prices.

I think you are just misreading for an argument, I have not used any forecasts to predict house prices. You asked for reasons why people may find out they have overpaid in a year or SO's time. They were all reasons why people may find out people may have overpaid.

When we reach the point where you are rewriting your own statements the game is up.

‘There are going to be a lot of people who find out they have over paid in a year or so time.’

I have rewritten nothing?
A lot of people will find out they have overpaid? I never said everyone.
I gave you an example of us in 2016.
You obviously believe every property sale is ideal and everyone will make a fortune.🙄

JJR45

MobileSaver said:

JJR45 said:

Repossessions restart today (nearly 100,000 in arrears) and evictions will start back up soon (estimated 840,000 in arrears), that could se a lot of unhappy BTL landlords selling up and repossessed properties coming to the market.

Those are big numbers you are quoting but the reality, as I'm sure you know, is that only a fraction of those will result in actual repossessions or evictions.

Fundamentally, whatever the number of repossessions or evictions, all those people still need to live somewhere so the impact on the housing supply/demand ratio will be minimal.

Even more fundamentally though, for the last forty years the UK has not been building enough housing to satisfy demand and even today the government is eight years behind its 300,000 a year target.

The above are just two of the fundamental reasons why Crashy's dream of a serious house price crash just ain't going to happen.

They are big numbers, but none of them are ideal numbers though. 
A crash most probably not happen, but likewise they do indicate supply will increase as defaults and evictions have not been able to happen over the last 12 months.
In reality a pandemic should not be causing a sudden supply issue, so obviously there are drivers for this, these drivers are going to ease over the next few months.
If lack of building was the main issue house prices would have been flying for the past 13 years.

To add, I am looking to buy ASAP, cash purchase. But I do think we are very near the top of the market at the moment (next 12 months) affordability is already at a higher multiple than 2007, that's not great and not sustainable for long. If it keeps inflating it will cause a crash.
But hopefully it will be a fair few years of below inflation rises instead.

MobileSaver

JJR45 said:

they do indicate supply will increase as defaults and evictions have not been able to happen over the last 12 months.

Again though, you are ignoring the other side of the equation... increased demand; all those people evicted and repossessed still need somewhere to live!

JJR45 said:

affordability is already at a higher multiple than 2007 ... not sustainable for long.

For at least seven years Crashy has been telling anyone that will listen that we are at the top of the market and multiples are too high yet people keep buying and prices keep rising.

JJR45

MobileSaver said:

JJR45 said:

they do indicate supply will increase as defaults and evictions have not been able to happen over the last 12 months.

Again though, you are ignoring the other side of the equation... increased demand; all those people evicted and repossessed still need somewhere to live!

Increased demand in what, bedsits and low-end accommodation that is covered by housing allowance?
So in a time of pandemic and deaths being well above average, that has spurnned demand that was not there in 2019?
I'm not ignoring anything, the argument is inconsistent and flimsy as demand (at the moment) is not in those areas of the housing market. 
Or do you think that people losing their jobs and being on furlough has created huge demand in 4 bed+ detached property?
People need places to live in 2007, late 80s and the 70s, so saying "people need somewhere to live" as the basis of property prices will never correct is simply wrong.
Property "generally" goes up, but usually over a boom and bust cycle.
One thing is for sure, in the cycle we are far closer to the end than the beginning. Check out the history, a correction will happen but no one knows when. Could be 5 years,  could be tomorrow, all it takes is a trigger.
The trigger would have been covid, that would caused a minor correction without market intervention (house prices were falling early last year)
But one thing is for sure if there is another trigger, the government has no other weapons.
Could go fine, or could get messy, neither you or I will have any influence though.

MobileSaver

JJR45 said:

MobileSaver said:

JJR45 said:

they do indicate supply will increase as defaults and evictions have not been able to happen over the last 12 months.

Again though, you are ignoring the other side of the equation... increased demand; all those people evicted and repossessed still need somewhere to live!

Increased demand in what, bedsits and low-end accommodation that is covered by housing allowance?
So in a time of pandemic and deaths being well above average, that has spurnned demand that was not there in 2019?
I'm not ignoring anything, the argument is inconsistent and flimsy as demand (at the moment) is not in those areas of the housing market.

Yes you were, you were ignoring that evicted people still need to live somewhere, that is a simple and obvious fact that directly affects demand.

I  thought the discussion was about the housing market in general not a particular subset that may or may not support your flawed claims if you ignore certain types of housing?

The tragedy that is "deaths well above average" will again have a minimal effect on the housing market. The average age of those who have died from Covid is 82 years of age and the vast majority of those did not live in their own home.

The_Real_Cheddar_Bob

My advice, buy with your head not your heart. So, walk away from any deal where the agent is pushing up the price. The stamp duty saving is not a saving, just added to the mortgage. 

JJR45

Yes you were, you were ignoring that evicted people still need to live somewhere, that is a simple and obvious fact that directly affects demand.

But yet evictions and repossessions won't increase supply in your world?🤔
Demand just increases exponentially regardless the situation.
Must have been that massive demand in rehousing that caused the 2007/2008 boom.🙄

MobileSaver

JJR45 said:

Yes you were, you were ignoring that evicted people still need to live somewhere, that is a simple and obvious fact that directly affects demand.

But yet evictions and repossessions won't increase supply in your world?🤔

I made no such claim.

You stated that "estimated 840,000 in arrears ...a lot of unhappy BTL landlords selling up and repossessed properties coming to the market" giving the impression that supply would increase significantly while you ignored that those evicted still need to live somewhere; so while supply will increase to an extent (but nothing like the 840,000 you were implying) it will be pretty much cancelled out by a similar increase in demand.

JJR45

MobileSaver said:

1) I made no such claim.
2)so while supply will increase to an extent (but nothing like the 840,000 you were implying) it will be pretty much cancelled out by a similar increase in demand.

1)"Again though, you are ignoring the other side of the equation... increased demand; all those people evicted and repossessed still need somewhere to live!" 
No, such claim you say?

2) Mmm, did I say 840,000 were selling up or did I state that a lot of unhappy ones will sell up?🤔

In a correction, demand for social/ emergency housing does not offset repossessions, keeping pricing inflated.
Prices become depressed due to increased supply and decreased demand. At the moment, there is increased demand and decreased supply, that inflates prices.

I am not saying we are going to crash, but you are clearly waffling. History is not supporting a word you write.