6 year plan, traditional investments too slow?

Albermarle

Just to come away from the Crypto debate /topic.

And if it still exists I'll get my state pension come 67 to boost things a bit more.

Do you think any government would abolish the state pension , when older people vote much more than any other age group? Even rumours that one part of the current triple lock might be removed has politicians diving for cover . The SP does more than boost things a little . To buy an annuity that paid £9K pa at 67 with a better than inflation link , would cost around £300K .

Also you are not keen on investments but you have a workplace pension , which will be invested in the markets and will hopefully pay you an income until you die . Normal advice on here would be to pay more into that due to the tax relief and make sure it is  in the right investments for your age and objectives.

Costabit

whatstheplan said:

Costabit said:

whatstheplan said:

  Although much of crypto is crystal ball stuff, analysts predict Ethereum could be worth £6.5k - £50k come 2025.  Although a different product than the likes of Bitcoin, I think it's perfectly reasonable to assume somewhere between those figures could be achieved.

Well, Ethereum has gone from $18 to $1800 in the last 4 years , so yes, these analysts may be correct, but with a range from £6.5K to £50K , I wouldn't be too confident in their research that comes up with a range that vast.
I also often wonder why these analysts didn't analyse this 4 years ago and "invest" then, and are now sitting on their yacht in the Maldives with a massive profit instead of continuing to work as a media analyst.
I know that's rather cynical of me and wish you luck of course and I have to admit, the lack of crypto in my portfolio has bothered me on occasions, so will watch this thread with interest. 

Yeah I'm kicking myself more than slightly on this.  I was going to buy 1 x Bitcoin and 5 x Ethereum around mid 2017 and genuinely can't remember why I didn't!  Life getting in the way I suppose.  Whether a gamble or not, a $4k investment then (gamble if you wish to call it that) would currently be worth $64k.

During 2018 it dropped from a then high of $1066 to $111 by the end of the year. It wasn't until Oct2020 that it got to around the $400 price , before its latest rapid rise in 4 months to what it is now.
I cant help thinking that a similar thing could happen again ( and again and probably again).
But you seem to realise that it is a gamble, so if you get the the timings right, then who knows ?

Out of interest, how are you planning to drip feed this monthly £250  what trading platform are you considering, what costs will it incur etc ?

jimjames

whatstheplan said:

dunstonh said:

Rightly or wrongly (and if you think I'm wrong feel free to say so!) my take on traditional investments e.g. stocks and shares, is that whilst they can pay dividends in the longer term, to see any potential significant growth in your investment you need to play a longer game than I want to e.g. 10+ years.  As touched on above, at this stage in my life, I'm not interested in starting an investment portfolio that might prove fruitful when I hit 65+.  I'll get by on the above plan money wise.  I might have looked at this differently if I was 39 as oppose to 49, however I am where I am.

That goes for all investments. Including BTLs.
You are 49.  Are you suggesting that you are not going to need any money when you hit 65+?

The informed chance/gamble I'm taking is this approach has the potential to buy me another few years of retiring earlier than 62, whereas a traditional approach e.g. stocks and shares is unlikely to offer that level of payout within what is a relatively short timescale when looking at investments.

You seem to be mistaking conventional investments as having just one risk level.   There are plenty of conventional investments that can double money in 12 months just as easily as losing as much, like crypto.

You appear to want a get rich quick scheme and pray that it doesn't go wrong.   Problem is that get rich quick schemes frequently do.     

Hi
Yes I'll need money when I'm 65+, which will come from my work based pension, BTL income and state pension from 67.
I don't really consider my possible crypto approach as a get rich quick scheme as such, although it's all subjective I suppose.  I've never been a player in the traditional markets and within what's a compressed timescale, I doubt I'd garner sufficient knowledge nor be able to invest sufficient sums to make that approach potentially pay off.  I don't have a desire to keep investing into my 60's and beyond. So in that sense, because I'm looking to do something with crypto over 5-6 years with a hopefully reasonable payout at that point, if people want to look on that as trying to get rich quick then fine, however I don't view it that way.

I'm curious why you think you have time to learn about crypto but not time to learn about investing? It doesn't seem to make sense to me.

whatstheplan

Costabit said:

whatstheplan said:

Costabit said:

whatstheplan said:

  Although much of crypto is crystal ball stuff, analysts predict Ethereum could be worth £6.5k - £50k come 2025.  Although a different product than the likes of Bitcoin, I think it's perfectly reasonable to assume somewhere between those figures could be achieved.

Well, Ethereum has gone from $18 to $1800 in the last 4 years , so yes, these analysts may be correct, but with a range from £6.5K to £50K , I wouldn't be too confident in their research that comes up with a range that vast.
I also often wonder why these analysts didn't analyse this 4 years ago and "invest" then, and are now sitting on their yacht in the Maldives with a massive profit instead of continuing to work as a media analyst.
I know that's rather cynical of me and wish you luck of course and I have to admit, the lack of crypto in my portfolio has bothered me on occasions, so will watch this thread with interest. 

Yeah I'm kicking myself more than slightly on this.  I was going to buy 1 x Bitcoin and 5 x Ethereum around mid 2017 and genuinely can't remember why I didn't!  Life getting in the way I suppose.  Whether a gamble or not, a $4k investment then (gamble if you wish to call it that) would currently be worth $64k.

During 2018 it dropped from a then high of $1066 to $111 by the end of the year. It wasn't until Oct2020 that it got to around the $400 price , before its latest rapid rise in 4 months to what it is now.
I cant help thinking that a similar thing could happen again ( and again and probably again).
But you seem to realise that it is a gamble, so if you get the the timings right, then who knows ?

Out of interest, how are you planning to drip feed this monthly £250  what trading platform are you considering, what costs will it incur etc ?

Yes, the money I'd invest/gamble I can afford to lose, so whilst that wouldn't be ideal (getting 5 years down the line and having £0 gain) I'm 100% aware that could be a reality.  As for the platform I'd use, still looking at that as the fee structures of some are 'interesting' to say the least!

whatstheplan

jimjames said:

whatstheplan said:

dunstonh said:

Rightly or wrongly (and if you think I'm wrong feel free to say so!) my take on traditional investments e.g. stocks and shares, is that whilst they can pay dividends in the longer term, to see any potential significant growth in your investment you need to play a longer game than I want to e.g. 10+ years.  As touched on above, at this stage in my life, I'm not interested in starting an investment portfolio that might prove fruitful when I hit 65+.  I'll get by on the above plan money wise.  I might have looked at this differently if I was 39 as oppose to 49, however I am where I am.

That goes for all investments. Including BTLs.
You are 49.  Are you suggesting that you are not going to need any money when you hit 65+?

The informed chance/gamble I'm taking is this approach has the potential to buy me another few years of retiring earlier than 62, whereas a traditional approach e.g. stocks and shares is unlikely to offer that level of payout within what is a relatively short timescale when looking at investments.

You seem to be mistaking conventional investments as having just one risk level.   There are plenty of conventional investments that can double money in 12 months just as easily as losing as much, like crypto.

You appear to want a get rich quick scheme and pray that it doesn't go wrong.   Problem is that get rich quick schemes frequently do.     

Hi
Yes I'll need money when I'm 65+, which will come from my work based pension, BTL income and state pension from 67.
I don't really consider my possible crypto approach as a get rich quick scheme as such, although it's all subjective I suppose.  I've never been a player in the traditional markets and within what's a compressed timescale, I doubt I'd garner sufficient knowledge nor be able to invest sufficient sums to make that approach potentially pay off.  I don't have a desire to keep investing into my 60's and beyond. So in that sense, because I'm looking to do something with crypto over 5-6 years with a hopefully reasonable payout at that point, if people want to look on that as trying to get rich quick then fine, however I don't view it that way.

I'm curious why you think you have time to learn about crypto but not time to learn about investing? It doesn't seem to make sense to me.

For me, the ins and outs of crypto are less arduous to follow, in addition I've been watching with interest over the last 12 months or so.  I'm not trying to paint my possible approach in any other light other than what it is, spreading investment in Ethereum over a fixed period playing the odds that come 2026 or thereabouts the investment (gamble if you like) will have paid off in terms of value appreciation.  If it has, sell and withdraw from the process.  If it hasn't, chalk it up as one of life's experiences and leave my initial investment where it is in the hope the landscape changes in the years to come.  Ethereum could flourish, similarly it could be overtaken by a dozen other competitors or more that are in the same space. 

I suppose in some regards I also find the world of crypto more interesting, possibly because I come from a technical/IT background.  However, whether crypto or traditional investments, at 49 I'm not interested in playing a longer game.  Like I said, if I was younger (i.e. typing this at 39 or better still 29!) then it's very possible I'd look at things differently.

Steve182

There are higher risk equity investments that you could also consider if you are not afraid of volatility, all with a reasonable chance of doubling (and also some chance of halving) over a 5 year timeframe, eg. 

Scottish Mortgage
Baillie Gifford Pacific Horizon
Lindsell Train Global Equity
Lindsell Train Investment Trust
Fundsmith Equity
Smithson Investment Trust

thegentleway

I think there is no way to predict what is going to happen to crypto. Your guess is as good as anybody else’s. I don’t think it’s wise to base your retirement plan on such an unknown. You seem very interested in it so you could gamble 1-2% of your investments. If it skyrockets then great but if it tanks it won’t ruin your retirement plan. 

ratechaser

However many calm and reasoned posts go into this thread, it's still a get rich quick scheme. It might work, it might not, no one here can tell you which way it will go. If they could (to a good level of accuracy), they would be sipping cocktails on their mega yacht rather than posting here at close to midnight...

I have some frankly insufferable acquaintances that 'got in early' on crypto and are crowing about how smart they were. I'll grant that they were lucky, but smart, really? Amazing how hindsight can make people rationalise themselves as financial geniuses. They are still sitting on what is only a paper profit, because BTC will obviously go to a $million, right? Let's see shall we.

So good luck to you if this is the punt you want to take, but aside from a handful of crypto fanboys on here, you're unlikely to hear a lot of strong validation for your plan.

whatstheplan

thegentleway said:

I think there is no way to predict what is going to happen to crypto. Your guess is as good as anybody else’s. I don’t think it’s wise to base your retirement plan on such an unknown. You seem very interested in it so you could gamble 1-2% of your investments. If it skyrockets then great but if it tanks it won’t ruin your retirement plan. 

Thanks and I see what you're saying, however bear in mind my (original) retirement plan won't be affected as I'll have a workplace pension, hopefully a BTL to boost my income and eventually a state pension.  My worst case scenario is working until I'm 65 (plan or second worst case is somewhere between 60-62 depending on the figures.  However recently I've been thinking of options, some of which may indeed be a gamble/punt, that if they pay off could see me retire somewhere between 55-60.

whatstheplan

ratechaser said:

However many calm and reasoned posts go into this thread, it's still a get rich quick scheme. It might work, it might not, no one here can tell you which way it will go. If they could (to a good level of accuracy), they would be sipping cocktails on their mega yacht rather than posting here at close to midnight...

I have some frankly insufferable acquaintances that 'got in early' on crypto and are crowing about how smart they were. I'll grant that they were lucky, but smart, really? Amazing how hindsight can make people rationalise themselves as financial geniuses. They are still sitting on what is only a paper profit, because BTC will obviously go to a $million, right? Let's see shall we.

So good luck to you if this is the punt you want to take, but aside from a handful of crypto fanboys on here, you're unlikely to hear a lot of strong validation for your plan.

Thanks for the feedback and I agree, those that got in early with crypto were more than anything lucky, right decision right time and all that.  However, and yes many think it's all just smoke and mirrors, there is some traction gaining around blockchain technology and surrounding activities.  You are of course 100% right, x years from now it might be a much more established technology and an investment opportunity that attracts traditional investors.  Similarly, the whole thing might have crashed and burned.  However, me investing/gambling say £6k in crypto over the next 24 months has the potential to return more, maybe even much more, in 5ish years time than investing £6k in traditional markets.  Say I doubled my investment in the same timeframe via traditional investments, so I've made £6k.  Great.  However it does little in terms of bringing my retirement date forward.  So in that sense yes, I'd be taking a punt as oppose to a more considered investment approach.

Tbh I wasn't seeking validation and I appreciate crypto fans on this forum are probably in a very small minority.  However it's of more use to me to receive considered feedback and advice as oppose to joining a crypto forum where the reverse would likely be true i.e. many people simply saying to me 'yeah do it, great plan, you'll make millions!'  An echo chamber isn't what I need or seek