6 year plan, traditional investments too slow?

whatstheplan

Hi
New here, would be interested in your thoughts on the following.  Before I start, some background info on me:

49 years old.
Full time (relatively secure) employment, work place pension.
3 x BTLs (mortgaged), 1 x residential mortgage, no other investments.

My own mortgage will be paid when I hit 62.  The plan is to retire then, consolidate the BTLs keeping 1 (with mortgage paid off) to boost my pension.  If it transpires the numbers don't quite work at that stage, the backup plan would be to keep on working to 65 max then call it a day.  I'm quite frugal though so hopefully 62 is achievable even though it'll mean less of a pension lump sum and lower amount received monthly.  And if it still exists I'll get my state pension come 67 to boost things a bit more.

However, I'd like to explore one or two avenues that might make it possible for me to retire even earlier, whether that's 61, 60, 59 or possibly even younger.  In short, yes perhaps it's a mid-life crisis, I want to escape the proverbial rat race as soon as I possibly can.

Rightly or wrongly (and if you think I'm wrong feel free to say so!) my take on traditional investments e.g. stocks and shares, is that whilst they can pay dividends in the longer term, to see any potential significant growth in your investment you need to play a longer game than I want to e.g. 10+ years.  As touched on above, at this stage in my life, I'm not interested in starting an investment portfolio that might prove fruitful when I hit 65+.  I'll get by on the above plan money wise.  I might have looked at this differently if I was 39 as oppose to 49, however I am where I am.

This is where some of you will roll your eyes and think 'oh no, another one!' however I've been looking at crypto, specifically Ethereum.  I'm toying with a dollar cost averaging investment approach of £250 monthly until 2025, possibly increasing this if the value of Ethereum continues to rise.  Although much of crypto is crystal ball stuff, analysts predict Ethereum could be worth £6.5k - £50k come 2025.  Although a different product than the likes of Bitcoin, I think it's perfectly reasonable to assume somewhere between those figures could be achieved.  Equally it could be worthless, I take that as a given.  Although hindsight/past performance is no indication of future performance, who would have predicted 50x growth for Bitcoin since 2017 and 90x for Ethereum.  I don't think many expect that sort of growth to continue, I don't, however I do think crypto is here to stay.

The informed chance/gamble I'm taking is this approach has the potential to buy me another few years of retiring earlier than 62, whereas a traditional approach e.g. stocks and shares is unlikely to offer that level of payout within what is a relatively short timescale when looking at investments.

Based on where I am in life and what I'd like to achieve, is my approach valid in your eyes or complete and utter lunacy?  If the latter, why?

If you've read to this stage, many thanks in advance for your time

Thrugelmir

Why are you "informed" and no one else is.  That's the question you need to answer to yourself. What's your edge over every other player in the crypto game of bluff?  

Bravepants

What you are saying is that you could really benefit from a get-rich-quick scheme.

And just like many, many other people, you consider cryptocurrency to be the best option for your get-rich-quick scheme. 

whatstheplan

Thrugelmir said:

Why are you "informed" and no one else is.  That's the question you need to answer to yourself. What's your edge over every other player in the crypto game of bluff?  

I suppose what I mean is, unless you know how to invest very wisely in traditional markets, if you're going to see a return it's unlikely to be as significant as I'd need it to be based on retiring 1, 2, 3 years earlier than planned.  I don't intend to play the longer game.  I also base this on the fact I do not have significant sums to invest.  Whereas, whilst it's more of a gamble than traditional markets, should crypto increase, the potential payback in 5ish years time could be significant.  Yes I appreciate I'm talking in should and could, however my overarching point is whilst crypto might do nothing for me, the potential is there for it to provide better returns than traditional approaches within my relatively compressed timescales.

eskbanker

whatstheplan said:
Yes I appreciate I'm talking in should and could, however my overarching point is whilst crypto might do nothing for me, the potential is there for it to provide better returns than traditional approaches within my relatively compressed timescales.

Putting all your money on red (or black), or the 2:30 at Newmarket, also have the potential to deliver better returns than traditional investment, which is why they're typically referred to as gambling....

Thrugelmir

whatstheplan said:

Thrugelmir said:

Why are you "informed" and no one else is.  That's the question you need to answer to yourself. What's your edge over every other player in the crypto game of bluff?  

I suppose what I mean is, unless you know how to invest very wisely in traditional markets, if you're going to see a return it's unlikely to be as significant as I'd need it to be based on retiring 1, 2, 3 years earlier than planned.  I don't intend to play the longer game.  I also base this on the fact I do not have significant sums to invest.  Whereas, whilst it's more of a gamble than traditional markets, should crypto increase, the potential payback in 5ish years time could be significant.  Yes I appreciate I'm talking in should and could, however my overarching point is whilst crypto might do nothing for me, the potential is there for it to provide better returns than traditional approaches within my relatively compressed timescales.

You could always overpay your residential mortgage. Shorten the term. That at least provides a guaranteed return. May even open up other options. Capital Gains Tax is likely to increase in the years ahead. Which might take the shine off the capital appreciation on your the BTL's you plan to sell. 

whatstheplan

Thrugelmir said:

whatstheplan said:

Thrugelmir said:

Why are you "informed" and no one else is.  That's the question you need to answer to yourself. What's your edge over every other player in the crypto game of bluff?  

I suppose what I mean is, unless you know how to invest very wisely in traditional markets, if you're going to see a return it's unlikely to be as significant as I'd need it to be based on retiring 1, 2, 3 years earlier than planned.  I don't intend to play the longer game.  I also base this on the fact I do not have significant sums to invest.  Whereas, whilst it's more of a gamble than traditional markets, should crypto increase, the potential payback in 5ish years time could be significant.  Yes I appreciate I'm talking in should and could, however my overarching point is whilst crypto might do nothing for me, the potential is there for it to provide better returns than traditional approaches within my relatively compressed timescales.

You could always overpay your residential mortgage. Shorten the term. That at least provides a guaranteed return. May even open up other options. Capital Gains Tax is likely to increase in the years ahead. Which might take the shine off the capital appreciation on your the BTL's you plan to sell. 

Thanks, yes that's something I intend to start later this year, using income that's currently directed elsewhere.

dunstonh

Rightly or wrongly (and if you think I'm wrong feel free to say so!) my take on traditional investments e.g. stocks and shares, is that whilst they can pay dividends in the longer term, to see any potential significant growth in your investment you need to play a longer game than I want to e.g. 10+ years.  As touched on above, at this stage in my life, I'm not interested in starting an investment portfolio that might prove fruitful when I hit 65+.  I'll get by on the above plan money wise.  I might have looked at this differently if I was 39 as oppose to 49, however I am where I am.

That goes for all investments. Including BTLs.
You are 49.  Are you suggesting that you are not going to need any money when you hit 65+?

The informed chance/gamble I'm taking is this approach has the potential to buy me another few years of retiring earlier than 62, whereas a traditional approach e.g. stocks and shares is unlikely to offer that level of payout within what is a relatively short timescale when looking at investments.

You seem to be mistaking conventional investments as having just one risk level.   There are plenty of conventional investments that can double money in 12 months just as easily as losing as much, like crypto.

You appear to want a get rich quick scheme and pray that it doesn't go wrong.   Problem is that get rich quick schemes frequently do.     

Costabit

whatstheplan said:

  Although much of crypto is crystal ball stuff, analysts predict Ethereum could be worth £6.5k - £50k come 2025.  Although a different product than the likes of Bitcoin, I think it's perfectly reasonable to assume somewhere between those figures could be achieved.

Well, Ethereum has gone from $18 to $1800 in the last 4 years , so yes, these analysts may be correct, but with a range from £6.5K to £50K , I wouldn't be too confident in their research that comes up with a range that vast.
I also often wonder why these analysts didn't analyse this 4 years ago and "invest" then, and are now sitting on their yacht in the Maldives with a massive profit instead of continuing to work as a media analyst.
I know that's rather cynical of me and wish you luck of course and I have to admit, the lack of crypto in my portfolio has bothered me on occasions, so will watch this thread with interest. 

whatstheplan

Costabit said:

whatstheplan said:

  Although much of crypto is crystal ball stuff, analysts predict Ethereum could be worth £6.5k - £50k come 2025.  Although a different product than the likes of Bitcoin, I think it's perfectly reasonable to assume somewhere between those figures could be achieved.

Well, Ethereum has gone from $18 to $1800 in the last 4 years , so yes, these analysts may be correct, but with a range from £6.5K to £50K , I wouldn't be too confident in their research that comes up with a range that vast.
I also often wonder why these analysts didn't analyse this 4 years ago and "invest" then, and are now sitting on their yacht in the Maldives with a massive profit instead of continuing to work as a media analyst.
I know that's rather cynical of me and wish you luck of course and I have to admit, the lack of crypto in my portfolio has bothered me on occasions, so will watch this thread with interest. 

Yeah I'm kicking myself more than slightly on this.  I was going to buy 1 x Bitcoin and 5 x Ethereum around mid 2017 and genuinely can't remember why I didn't!  Life getting in the way I suppose.  Whether a gamble or not, a $4k investment then (gamble if you wish to call it that) would currently be worth $64k.

whatstheplan

dunstonh said:

Rightly or wrongly (and if you think I'm wrong feel free to say so!) my take on traditional investments e.g. stocks and shares, is that whilst they can pay dividends in the longer term, to see any potential significant growth in your investment you need to play a longer game than I want to e.g. 10+ years.  As touched on above, at this stage in my life, I'm not interested in starting an investment portfolio that might prove fruitful when I hit 65+.  I'll get by on the above plan money wise.  I might have looked at this differently if I was 39 as oppose to 49, however I am where I am.

That goes for all investments. Including BTLs.
You are 49.  Are you suggesting that you are not going to need any money when you hit 65+?

The informed chance/gamble I'm taking is this approach has the potential to buy me another few years of retiring earlier than 62, whereas a traditional approach e.g. stocks and shares is unlikely to offer that level of payout within what is a relatively short timescale when looking at investments.

You seem to be mistaking conventional investments as having just one risk level.   There are plenty of conventional investments that can double money in 12 months just as easily as losing as much, like crypto.

You appear to want a get rich quick scheme and pray that it doesn't go wrong.   Problem is that get rich quick schemes frequently do.     

Hi
Yes I'll need money when I'm 65+, which will come from my work based pension, BTL income and state pension from 67.
I don't really consider my possible crypto approach as a get rich quick scheme as such, although it's all subjective I suppose.  I've never been a player in the traditional markets and within what's a compressed timescale, I doubt I'd garner sufficient knowledge nor be able to invest sufficient sums to make that approach potentially pay off.  I don't have a desire to keep investing into my 60's and beyond. So in that sense, because I'm looking to do something with crypto over 5-6 years with a hopefully reasonable payout at that point, if people want to look on that as trying to get rich quick then fine, however I don't view it that way.