Ridiculous listing prices

RelievedSheff

Mickey666 said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

The economy and property bubble was in trouble before Covid

Really?!?!

How do you explain house prices have been rising for the last ten years if the "property bubble was in trouble"?

Crashy_Time said:

people who couldn`t afford bigger properties with bigger gardens then certainly can`t afford it now,

You keep stating this as a fact and yet report after report proves you wrong (including I might add articles that you yourself have linked to!)

Crashy_Time said:

What would the thought process be that drives a seller to do this in the middle of the biggest downturn in living memory?

Probably acting on actual real-world verifiable facts rather than misguided opinions from HPC fanatics:

UK house prices reach new high

Prices ended 2020 up 6% on the previous year on pent-up demand and stamp duty holiday

House prices up 6% is the "biggest downturn in living memory"?!?! LOL

So just to be clear, you are saying that these headlines are just not true?

https://metro.co.uk/2021/02/12/uk-economy-shrank-by-9-8-in-2020-faster-than-any-point-in-100-years-14068920/#metro-comments-container

Er, yes, that headline was true. I have answered your question so please can you answer mine?

1. How do you explain house prices have been rising for the last ten years if the "property bubble was in trouble"?
2. How do you explain report after report confirming people are moving away from urban areas to less-urban areas with bigger properties and bigger gardens if people cannot afford them?
3. How do you explain house prices increasing by 6% if we are in the "biggest downturn in living memory"?

I'll risk a guess for 3 - I suspect Crashy is using a drop in transactions as a definition of downturn, which I suppose it could be, except that it also (further) reduces supply, which increases demand, hence house prices rising even though transactions are low.
But I'm stumped on 1 & 2

Don't be daft. Covid is an anomaly. That 6% rise never happened 🤣🤣🤣

Getting_greyer

Well another fascinating thread. For what it's worth I think around this time next year, we'll look back at today's "ridiculous asking prices" as just the asking prices.  There maybe a glut of btl on the market come the summer/autumn that will see some bargains for those that are in a position to snap them up. 

All in, our fiscally conservative chancellor will want to increase some tax, but a PM who's more relaxed about debt and more interested in poll ratings won't allow it until after a snap election.  Any party who stands on a platform that offers a HTBesque/gov backed 100% mortgage  policy on the open market will win a landslide- regardless of whether it's a good idea or not as it's all about votes.  This means the bubble keeps growing, at the same time as unemployment decreases. Ultimately the bubble goes for a few more years until the bank can't ignore inflation anymore.  As rates increase  prices will drop but will still be higher than they are now. 

I will not be basing any spending decisions on this, which shows how much I trust my own prediction.

RelievedSheff

Getting_greyer said:

Well another fascinating thread. For what it's worth I think around this time next year, we'll look back at today's "ridiculous asking prices" as just the asking prices.  There maybe a glut of btl on the market come the summer/autumn that will see some bargains for those that are in a position to snap them up. 

All in, our fiscally conservative chancellor will want to increase some tax, but a PM who's more relaxed about debt and more interested in poll ratings won't allow it until after a snap election.  Any party who stands on a platform that offers a HTBesque/gov backed 100% mortgage  policy on the open market will win a landslide- regardless of whether it's a good idea or not as it's all about votes.  This means the bubble keeps growing, at the same time as unemployment decreases. Ultimately the bubble goes for a few more years until the bank can't ignore inflation anymore.  As rates increase  prices will drop but will still be higher than they are now. 

I will not be basing any spending decisions on this, which shows how much I trust my own prediction.

For what it is worth I also see another year of 5-6% house price growth.

The economy will bounce back once restrictions are lifted and will have a mini boom this summer with more people than usual holidaying in the UK.

Getting_greyer

RelievedSheff said:

Getting_greyer said:

Well another fascinating thread. For what it's worth I think around this time next year, we'll look back at today's "ridiculous asking prices" as just the asking prices.  There maybe a glut of btl on the market come the summer/autumn that will see some bargains for those that are in a position to snap them up. 

All in, our fiscally conservative chancellor will want to increase some tax, but a PM who's more relaxed about debt and more interested in poll ratings won't allow it until after a snap election.  Any party who stands on a platform that offers a HTBesque/gov backed 100% mortgage  policy on the open market will win a landslide- regardless of whether it's a good idea or not as it's all about votes.  This means the bubble keeps growing, at the same time as unemployment decreases. Ultimately the bubble goes for a few more years until the bank can't ignore inflation anymore.  As rates increase  prices will drop but will still be higher than they are now. 

I will not be basing any spending decisions on this, which shows how much I trust my own prediction.

For what it is worth I also see another year of 5-6% house price growth.

The economy will bounce back once restrictions are lifted and will have a mini boom this summer with more people than usual holidaying in the UK.

If you think HPI is bad you should check out VW T2/T3 price inflation since last year's lockdown.  I'm contemplating putting mine up for sale but I know I'd hate myself after.

RelievedSheff

Getting_greyer said:

RelievedSheff said:

Getting_greyer said:

Well another fascinating thread. For what it's worth I think around this time next year, we'll look back at today's "ridiculous asking prices" as just the asking prices.  There maybe a glut of btl on the market come the summer/autumn that will see some bargains for those that are in a position to snap them up. 

All in, our fiscally conservative chancellor will want to increase some tax, but a PM who's more relaxed about debt and more interested in poll ratings won't allow it until after a snap election.  Any party who stands on a platform that offers a HTBesque/gov backed 100% mortgage  policy on the open market will win a landslide- regardless of whether it's a good idea or not as it's all about votes.  This means the bubble keeps growing, at the same time as unemployment decreases. Ultimately the bubble goes for a few more years until the bank can't ignore inflation anymore.  As rates increase  prices will drop but will still be higher than they are now. 

I will not be basing any spending decisions on this, which shows how much I trust my own prediction.

For what it is worth I also see another year of 5-6% house price growth.

The economy will bounce back once restrictions are lifted and will have a mini boom this summer with more people than usual holidaying in the UK.

If you think HPI is bad you should check out VW T2/T3 price inflation since last year's lockdown.  I'm contemplating putting mine up for sale but I know I'd hate myself after.

We are in the process of selling our boat for a damn sight more than we had agreed a sale for this time last year.  We lost the sale last year due to the guy buying it having to shut his business due to Covid. We decided to keep the boat last year instead

Trouble is we are now looking to buy a motorhome instead and the price of those has also increased a lot. 

Getting_greyer

RelievedSheff said:

Getting_greyer said:

RelievedSheff said:

Getting_greyer said:

Well another fascinating thread. For what it's worth I think around this time next year, we'll look back at today's "ridiculous asking prices" as just the asking prices.  There maybe a glut of btl on the market come the summer/autumn that will see some bargains for those that are in a position to snap them up. 

All in, our fiscally conservative chancellor will want to increase some tax, but a PM who's more relaxed about debt and more interested in poll ratings won't allow it until after a snap election.  Any party who stands on a platform that offers a HTBesque/gov backed 100% mortgage  policy on the open market will win a landslide- regardless of whether it's a good idea or not as it's all about votes.  This means the bubble keeps growing, at the same time as unemployment decreases. Ultimately the bubble goes for a few more years until the bank can't ignore inflation anymore.  As rates increase  prices will drop but will still be higher than they are now. 

I will not be basing any spending decisions on this, which shows how much I trust my own prediction.

For what it is worth I also see another year of 5-6% house price growth.

The economy will bounce back once restrictions are lifted and will have a mini boom this summer with more people than usual holidaying in the UK.

If you think HPI is bad you should check out VW T2/T3 price inflation since last year's lockdown.  I'm contemplating putting mine up for sale but I know I'd hate myself after.

We are in the process of selling our boat for a damn sight more than we had agreed a sale for this time last year.  We lost the sale last year due to the guy buying it having to shut his business due to Covid. We decided to keep the boat last year instead

Trouble is we are now looking to buy a motorhome instead and the price of those has also increased a lot. 

Yep absolutely. It was a godsend having it last summer. I'd only sell for a price that would be impossible to refuse, which is what most people are thinking I guess.

Mickey666

Isn't the thing about economic 'bubbles', historically anyway, that they only 'burst' and prices crashed when everyone wants to get out and sell up.  That's never going to happen with the housing market because it's not a 'luxury' item.  It's a basic necessity of living, not an optional purchase. 

Even if you don't want to buy you have to rent so there's a constant demand.  If the population were to suddenly drop then I could see house prices falling as well, but there's no sign of that on the horizon (unfortunately) so I can't really see a crash ever happening in our lifetimes.  I could imagine a slowing down of the rate of increase, perhaps even to zero, but not a fundamental restructuring of market prices. 

But, as I've said before, in a way it doesn't really matter as far as buy-or-rent decisions are concerned, because buying will always be cheaper over a lifetime than renting . . . and everyone needs a home over their lifetime.

RelievedSheff

Getting_greyer said:

RelievedSheff said:

Getting_greyer said:

RelievedSheff said:

Getting_greyer said:

Well another fascinating thread. For what it's worth I think around this time next year, we'll look back at today's "ridiculous asking prices" as just the asking prices.  There maybe a glut of btl on the market come the summer/autumn that will see some bargains for those that are in a position to snap them up. 

All in, our fiscally conservative chancellor will want to increase some tax, but a PM who's more relaxed about debt and more interested in poll ratings won't allow it until after a snap election.  Any party who stands on a platform that offers a HTBesque/gov backed 100% mortgage  policy on the open market will win a landslide- regardless of whether it's a good idea or not as it's all about votes.  This means the bubble keeps growing, at the same time as unemployment decreases. Ultimately the bubble goes for a few more years until the bank can't ignore inflation anymore.  As rates increase  prices will drop but will still be higher than they are now. 

I will not be basing any spending decisions on this, which shows how much I trust my own prediction.

For what it is worth I also see another year of 5-6% house price growth.

The economy will bounce back once restrictions are lifted and will have a mini boom this summer with more people than usual holidaying in the UK.

If you think HPI is bad you should check out VW T2/T3 price inflation since last year's lockdown.  I'm contemplating putting mine up for sale but I know I'd hate myself after.

We are in the process of selling our boat for a damn sight more than we had agreed a sale for this time last year.  We lost the sale last year due to the guy buying it having to shut his business due to Covid. We decided to keep the boat last year instead

Trouble is we are now looking to buy a motorhome instead and the price of those has also increased a lot. 

Yep absolutely. It was a godsend having it last summer. I'd only sell for a price that would be impossible to refuse, which is what most people are thinking I guess.

We are glad we kept it last year but as you say we have had an offer we just can not refuse. 

The jury is out if we buy the motorhome this year or not. Trouble is we know what make and model we want but there are not that many about to start with 🤔

Getting_greyer

At the national level nominal prices did drop 2008/9, whether that fits within the anology of a bursting bubble I take your point. I guess it's from whixh base year you use.

Thrugelmir

Getting_greyer said:

There maybe a glut of btl on the market come the summer/autumn that will see some bargains for those that are in a position to snap them up. 

A considerable number of migrant EU workers appear to have left the country. With the early demise of many due to Covid.  A weakening would be no surprise given. Then we've yet to see the full damage caused to the economy. Unemployment is going to rise somewhat higher yet in the short term.