Stamp Duty Ending

SpiderLegs

Crashy_Time said:

SpiderLegs said:

Crashy_Time said:

Angela_D_3 said:

Crashy_Time said:

jimmyjammy001 said:

What I find disconcerting is that something like 50% of people have said  they will have to abort their house sale if it goes pass the March deadline, people have spent what they have saved in stamp duty on a house and have absolutely no emergency savings in place to deal with emergency expenses like just in case they don't complete by the deadline, crazy!

But if the seller puts it back on the market again it's unlikely they will get what they wanted pre stamp duty holiday as people will now have less to spend on the house they want and will need to factor in paying the stamp duty. So it could work out buyers haggling with sellers to get the stamp duty equivalent knocked off the price or they pull out. 

Wow, just shows how stretched people really are?

Or how lovely itll be to be able to buy nice things gor the house instead of paying tax with it. 

Im buying a house because i need somewhere to live.  If i pay SD which i can but if i dont thsts £3000 ill send on decor and on lical trades people who in turn will psy tax on that income.  I dont wish to be unkind or rude.  

But inflation is predicted... if thats the case buying was a great idea.  If theres a crash id need more than a 20% deposit so i couldnt benefit anyway.  Theres no risk here.  Id imagine lots of people are in the same situation.  

General inflation will raise interest rates, and that along with other rising costs will make it harder to service mortgage debt, and if there is a crash lending won`t stop (all they have done is try to keep lending since the 2008 crisis!) and it is unlikely that 20% deposits will be required when property prices are coming down?

When do you think interest rates will rise?

When do you think general inflation will rise?

February.

Your turn. When do you think interest rates will rise?

mrlegend123

my prediction is never because 1% increase in IRs means 20% drop in asset prices. US tried and look what happened to their markets couple of years back.

Stamp duty will be removed to keep the market afloat and they will introduced a different tax such as property tax as mentioned. 

I am not sure how property tax would work with BTL unless they introduce a different property tax just for BTL.

BTL will become targets again in the budget....easy target and should be taxed more due to benefits of leverage. 

Angela_D_3

mrlegend123 said:

my prediction is never because 1% increase in IRs means 20% drop in asset prices. US tried and look what happened to their markets couple of years back.

Stamp duty will be removed to keep the market afloat and they will introduced a different tax such as property tax as mentioned. 

I am not sure how property tax would work with BTL unless they introduce a different property tax just for BTL.

BTL will become targets again in the budget....easy target and should be taxed more due to benefits of leverage. 

BTL is s business.  Airbnb etc also.  You seriously think the government will target British businesses that keep peoples roofs over their heads ?  

MobileSaver

mrlegend123 said:

because 1% increase in IRs means 20% drop in asset prices.

What complete and utter nonsense!

mrlegend123 said:

BTL will become targets again in the budget....easy target and should be taxed more due to benefits of leverage. 

Only a few days ago you were saying BTL was already not worth it [as a business] so how could taxing it more be remotely sustainable for anyone?

Mickey666

mrlegend123 said:

my prediction is never because 1% increase in IRs means 20% drop in asset prices. US tried and look what happened to their markets couple of years back.

Well that's not what happened when UK had frequently rising interest dates in the 80s and 90s.

mrlegend123

@MobileSaver. It is not nonsense, read Bank of England Report on Interest Rates dated Dec 19! They predicted 1% increase in IRs = 20% drop in asset prices. 

@Mickey666. The current financial system (new financial instruments nowadays) is different to the 80/90s.........IRs will never go up due tooooooo much debt in the system. 
Also, asset prices were not that high relative to IRs. 

@Angela_D_3. I understand that BTL is a business but it has strong benefits such as leverage, inheriting etc. There needs to be another property tax against landlords if stamp duty goes. It will be fair to the wider society, especially the younger generations. 

Getting_greyer

Do you mean the MPC minutes of December 2020?  Please tell me which paragraph as I can't seem to find it.

SpiderLegs

Ah I get it.

If we try compare the past to today that is pointless because things are now different.

but if we want to think about the future well we can just look at today because it won’t be any different.

Yep, makes perfect sense.

mrlegend123

Getting_greyer said:

Do you mean the MPC minutes of December 2020?  Please tell me which paragraph as I can't seem to find it.

no if I meant that I would of said that.... 

Changes in the risk‑free real rate are a crucial driver of changes in house prices — the model predicts that a 1% sustained increase in index‑linked gilt yields could ultimately (ie in the long run) result in a fall in real house prices of just under 20%.

working report number 837 dated December 2019.....not 2020 minutes... 

MobileSaver

mrlegend123 said:

@MobileSaver. It is not nonsense, read Bank of England Report on Interest Rates dated Dec 19! They predicted 1% increase in IRs = 20% drop in asset prices.

No they did not and what you wrote was simply untrue and complete nonsense.

Firstly and most importantly the Bank of England report is talking about medium-term real interest rates not the short-term nominal interest rates that the Bank sets.

Secondly the report said that such an increase in the real interest rate if it was unexpected and persistent could result in a 20% drop over a period of many years; that is a million miles away from your claim that a 1% increase equals a 20% drop.

Thirdly the report concludes that "it does not suggest that house prices are likely to move lower" as it explains that this would mean a reversal of a 30 years trend which is unlikely and there is "little sign" of this happening.