Energy Cost Trends for 2021?

oldwiring

What are crystal balls saying on this? 
I ask because my fixed dual fuel contract expires at the end of April, and I find the supplier's current fix, irrelevant who, if in force then, would cost 27% more than what I have, but their variable tracker 7% less for a like consumption of gas and electricity.
Should I change to the variable contract now, or wait and see what emerges near end of contract? Their are no penalties to consider on any change I make.

Shedman

I read somewhere but can't locate the link at the moment (think it was some sort of trade online news site) that wholesale electric prices rose from a low of £20 per megawatt (or whatever bulk unit they use) in Jun/July 20 to over £60 in late Autumn and that those increases wouldn't necessarily have filtered through to increases in tariffs yet (due to forward buying) but obviously are likely to feed through in next few months.  

I also recall someone on here saying their Igloo variable tariff was increasing by 9% or so in near future.  

The unknowns are the impact of this latest lockdown and colder weather on demand (my guess is increased demand so pointing towards higher prices) and the possible upside from a strengthening pound vs dollar following Brexit resolution/US current woes and hence lower oil/gas prices in sterling terms.

My crystal ball, for what is worth then, is indicating upward pressure on utility prices hence why I am switching to another fixed term.

oldwiring

@Shedman Am I reading you right, that while there is general pressure on prices, gas prices may fall? How companies will play that, I am not sure, as the increase between my fix and current was 31.4% on standing charge and 8.7% for gas

Brewer20

Yes it was me who posted the rise by Igloo, 9.1% from February 8th. It's already showing the rise on their tariffs if you get a quote. They have just one variable tariff (Pioneer) so not much to consider, also no exit fees, no fixers. They do have a refer a friend, £50 to both, that's about as simple as it gets.
I've done comparisons over the last 3 weeks, not many now can beat Igloo to make it worth switching, my opinion of course. Swings and roundabouts on tariffs v standing charges, worked it all out and for me it amounts to around £20-30 saving last time I checked. Avro or EDF being the competition in price. For now I'm sticking, at least I now know how much the rise will be come February, keeping a watchful eye on things but I'm not holding out much hope of prices falling.

Shedman

oldwiring said:

@Shedman Am I reading you right, that while there is general pressure on prices, gas prices may fall? How companies will play that, I am not sure, as the increase between my fix and current was 31.4% on standing charge and 8.7% for gas

My point was more that a strengthening of the pound reduces, in sterling terms, the cost of the inputs for the oil/gas used to generate electricity and hence could reduce retail electricity prices (although I guess so much is now generated by wind and other green methods that this probably has a negligible impact), but it could possibly have a slightly favourable impact on domestic natural gas prices although I doubt it.  My (unscientific gut feeling) expectation is that both electric and gas prices will rise over the course of this year.  

There are sometimes opportunities to pick up a good deal in late Spring/Summer once the winter demand drops but I prefer the certainty of fixing the tariff so long as the premium over a variable tariff isn't too great.

I think I would agree that there does seem to an move towards the SCs increasing significantly probably so as to allow unit rate increases not to look so steep..

Mickey666

If you plan for energy prices to rise every year then you won't be far wrong.  If it turns out you are wrong then at least it'll be a pleasant surprise.  In fact, it's best to plan on everything increasing in price every year

CRISPIANNE3

I have allowed £83.00 a month for gas and electricity and has never risen in 8 years from this figure. The reason being over time we have got all energy efficient appliances and switch on a regular basis. 

oldwiring

[quote]Mickey666  If you plan for energy prices to rise every year then you won't be far wrong.  If it turns out you are wrong then at least it'll be a pleasant surprise.  In fact, it's best to plan on everything increasing in price every year [/quote]
That reminds me of a saying that pessimists are seldom disappointed.

oldwiring

@Shedman Maybe the emphasis on SCs is also to protect income as .well

Verdigris

I spend less on energy, now, that I did ten years ago. This is from combination of analysis my energy (and water) use, changing my habits accordingly, changing to LED lighting and other more efficient gear and shopping around for my energy supply. I have far more electrical stuff than I did then. On top of that the relative cost has reduced owing to inflation.

Shedman

oldwiring said:

@Shedman Maybe the emphasis on SCs is also to protect income as .well

Agreed that's also a possibility and if it helps stop so many of the smaller suppliers folding as seems to have happened over last 12-18 months then maybe it's not such a bad thing