2021 Predictions

mark55man

I see oil and banks doing well and the UK, despite the gaping hole in our foot from the brexit shotgun will find a way to do what we have always done and make money.  so I think UK as a whole will do well this year and I am overweight UK using Vanguard FTSE All Share @20%.  In my "special situations" fund I have LLOY and a blend of oilers.  I missed the green energy surge and am not going to chase it

I see the yield curve remaining flat both short and long term despite fears of inflation and interest rate rising so no disaster in long term bonds, but not much gain.  I will be looking to shorten the duration of my bond exposure to medium - but not short, once we get out of lockdown.  I think corporates will be awash with money so have started to build up corporate bond exposure.  Still holding 20% bonds

I predict that Covid will be conquered but like any storm will have random gusts across the world, therefore my global equities currently Euro focussed  are going into a big Global vanguard pot (ex UK) as I want to fire and forget @40%.  I do think that US will do well, and I have missed that to date out of aversion, but I am not so confident as to go overweight 

Outside US I see smaller companies as being stronger than  large cap, and I have put some money into Euro small cap to go alongside my FTSE-AS.  @10%

I think Gold will be unpredictable but it has been a useful balance to my portfolio so I'm not going to change that @ 10%

 In terms of specific predictions:
UK FTSE All Share - +15%
US Roller coaster - +10%
Gold - Level but insurance costs

If that seems aggressive, well I am already 7% up from 1 Jan, and I wasn't predicting that

Thrugelmir

ZingPowZing said:

Well, the First Amendment of the social media playground is your right to ignore anything that doesn't conform to your pre-conceived idea...but I'm not sure it helps your argument. 

Not an argument it's a viewpoint. Differing views make markets. Someone is happy to sell in order for somebody else to buy. 

thegentleway

My prediction is that the S&P500 will move between -10% and +30% by year end with a 80% confidence interval. 

mark55man

thegentleway said:

My prediction is that the S&P500 will move between -10% and +30% by year end with a 80% confidence interval. 

I'm almost certain I think you might be in the right ballpark with that

coastline

Head on chopping block. The markets will have a healthy correction in the first half of the year. The Russell 2000 Index and similar will suffer more. 
Most stocks showing the classic parabolic chart pattern will perform badly.
Tesla will fall to 600 minimum. 

sevenhills

Thrugelmir said:

Not going to attempt to predict individual share prices. As for markets.

S&P 500 down at least 10%. 
FTSE All Share up at least 5%
Nikkei up at least 5%
Stoxx 600 up at least 10%

Jack Ma will remain out of sight for the whole of 2021. 

Inflation (CPI) will spike at over 2% during the year.

Those two look good, FTSE has gone from 3,724 to 4,035

mark55man

Yes but the S&P is up 15% YTD so swings and roundabouts

Thrugelmir

sevenhills said:

Thrugelmir said:

Not going to attempt to predict individual share prices. As for markets.

S&P 500 down at least 10%. 
FTSE All Share up at least 5%
Nikkei up at least 5%
Stoxx 600 up at least 10%

Jack Ma will remain out of sight for the whole of 2021. 

Inflation (CPI) will spike at over 2% during the year.

Those two look good, FTSE has gone from 3,724 to 4,035

Over 6 months to go yet. Anything could happen.......

Bobziz

Thrugelmir said:

sevenhills said:

Thrugelmir said:

Not going to attempt to predict individual share prices. As for markets.

S&P 500 down at least 10%. 
FTSE All Share up at least 5%
Nikkei up at least 5%
Stoxx 600 up at least 10%

Jack Ma will remain out of sight for the whole of 2021. 

Inflation (CPI) will spike at over 2% during the year.

Those two look good, FTSE has gone from 3,724 to 4,035

Over 6 months to go yet. Anything could happen.......

Care to adjust your predictions ?

WHUFC123

I predict inflation to hit 4% or more by September, a new breakthrough in treatment of Covid, Boris to be replaced by Rishi , and a travel corridor to the US to be open by October