Jeremy Grantham’s Bubble Predictions

coyrls

BananaRepublic said:

theGrinch said:

Is he still on display at UCL? I saw him in 1990 in a cupboard

The head is a fake. 

You're right, it's wax.  Bentham asked for his body to be preserved but his head decomposed too much and so was replaced by a wax copy.  His actual head used to be kept in a box on top of the case containing his body.  The box with his head in it was stolen by Kings College students in the 1975 (when I was at UCL).  The UCL authorities were not amused and called in the police.  The box was eventually recovered and I think it is now kept in safer place.

Some details here: https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bentham-project/who-was-jeremy-bentham/auto-icon, although my recollection was the the police were called in, not that a ransom of £10 was paid!

BananaRepublic

coyrls said:

BananaRepublic said:

theGrinch said:

Is he still on display at UCL? I saw him in 1990 in a cupboard

The head is a fake. 

You're right, it's wax.  Bentham asked for his body to be preserved but his head decomposed too much and so was replaced by a wax copy.  His actual head used to be kept in a box on top of the case containing his body.  The box with his head in it was stolen by Kings College students in the 1975 (when I was at UCL).  The UCL authorities were not amused and called in the police.  The box was eventually recovered and I think it is now kept in safer place.

Some details here: https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bentham-project/who-was-jeremy-bentham/auto-icon, although my recollection was the the police were called in, not that a ransom of £10 was paid!

I was a student in London, and heard various stories including medical students taking cadavers on bus rides. I have no proof of course. 

Thrugelmir

Prism said:

itwasntme001 said:
 It was certainly the fashionable style following the tech bubble bursting (and coincidently it was consumer staples that under performed during that same period - so I think it was more the cyclical value stocks that did well).  It shows that certain styles and sectors do well during certain periods and we don't really know when and for how long because a lot of the reason for certain things doing well is because the macro environment has or will be changing in combination with starting valuations.  But you can re-position when things go out of whack so maybe the ultra high octane growth style that SMT favours needs to be managed more carefully (since they are much more likely to fall 50% in a short time than a fundsmith).

Investing was never meant to be easy.

I hear that consumer stocks did poorly after the tech bubble but actually they seemed to do very well, mainly because at that time they were the value stocks. This is the time that Woodford made all of his great returns by moving into them in the late 90s as everyone was piling into tech. 

Woodford is a Buffett disciple. Didn't move into the stocks, built Perpetual Income around them. When Dot Com blew up. Woodford was sitting pretty. As held sizable stakes in well run profitable businessess that investors turned their attention too. 

Thrugelmir

ZingPowZing said:

So basically, Grantham has been sitting out the dance for a long time. Or, to be more accurate, telling you to sit it out.
Treated like seers when their predictions eventually come good, it's a shame these figures are never held to account for the opportunity cost of their caution for the rest of the time.

Asset managers have no time horizon unlike retail investors. Markets are cyclical. Spend enough years investing and you'll witness it yourself. 

[Deleted User]

Thrugelmir said:

ZingPowZing said:

So basically, Grantham has been sitting out the dance for a long time. Or, to be more accurate, telling you to sit it out.
Treated like seers when their predictions eventually come good, it's a shame these figures are never held to account for the opportunity cost of their caution for the rest of the time.

Asset managers have no time horizon unlike retail investors. Markets are cyclical. Spend enough years investing and you'll witness it yourself. 

If there is no time horizon, then the doomsters who say "The Titanic sails at dawn," are never wrong, only waiting to be right. Like a stopped clock. 

It is a good job these characters are not in charge of their country's shipping lanes, let alone their futures. Because,  "reversion to the mean" is a mantra that leads to advocating selling Alaska for $4 million, the year after their country bought it for $2.2 million.

ChilliBob

BananaRepublic said:

coyrls said:

BananaRepublic said:

theGrinch said:

Is he still on display at UCL? I saw him in 1990 in a cupboard

The head is a fake. 

You're right, it's wax.  Bentham asked for his body to be preserved but his head decomposed too much and so was replaced by a wax copy.  His actual head used to be kept in a box on top of the case containing his body.  The box with his head in it was stolen by Kings College students in the 1975 (when I was at UCL).  The UCL authorities were not amused and called in the police.  The box was eventually recovered and I think it is now kept in safer place.

Some details here: https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bentham-project/who-was-jeremy-bentham/auto-icon, although my recollection was the the police were called in, not that a ransom of £10 was paid!

I was a student in London, and heard various stories including medical students taking cadavers on bus rides. I have no proof of course. 

I seem to recall they said Bentham (waxy) was rolled into certain meetings from time to time too, or had been, which seems a bit mad. Fun times, I used to spend quite a while in that Quad building doing my Econometrics coursework! 

valiant24

Sailtheworld said:

Lars Kroijer has a good set of videos which accompany his Investing Demystified book at Lars Kroijer. I revisit these videos whenever I start to think I know what I'm doing to remind myself I don't 

But if you accept Lars Kroijer's advice you'll scrap all your holdings and just buy a single global tracker.  I watch and read him and completely believe him ... but I can't bring myself to follow the advice!
How do others feel about his message?
Also, isn't his message diluted somewhat by the fact that he sits on the boards of several fund managers?   I wonder if he personally practices what he preaches with his own assets ....

Thrugelmir

valiant24 said:

Sailtheworld said:

Lars Kroijer has a good set of videos which accompany his Investing Demystified book at Lars Kroijer. I revisit these videos whenever I start to think I know what I'm doing to remind myself I don't 

How do others feel about his message?

The original book was published in 2014. Given the combination of the performance of US tech giants and falling exchange rates since then. Along with the exceptional returns on bonds. Has made the concept the Holy Grail of Investing! Of course Vanguard wasn't even a known name in the UK back then. As only launched funds in January 2016.  Investment styles are like fashions they all eventually come and go. When everybody is buying the same assets then eventually prices will be bid up above fair value. Then somebody will rediscover value investing, or cyclicals or smaller companies or the BRIC's again resulting in a new fad. Money will flow from one sector to the next. As retail investors bemoan their portfolio underperformance. 

Michael121

Thrugelmir said:

valiant24 said:

Sailtheworld said:

Lars Kroijer has a good set of videos which accompany his Investing Demystified book at Lars Kroijer. I revisit these videos whenever I start to think I know what I'm doing to remind myself I don't 

How do others feel about his message?

The original book was published in 2014. Given the combination of the performance of US tech giants and falling exchange rates since then. Along with the exceptional returns on bonds. Has made the concept the Holy Grail of Investing! Of course Vanguard wasn't even a known name in the UK back then. As only launched funds in January 2016.  Investment styles are like fashions they all eventually come and go. When everybody is buying the same assets then eventually prices will be bid up above fair value. Then somebody will rediscover value investing, or cyclicals or smaller companies or the BRIC's again resulting in a new fad. Money will flow from one sector to the next. As retail investors bemoan their portfolio underperformance. 

Wasn't the s and p 500 index fund first introduced in 1976. It is interesting how flat the index is from 1930 till 1976 it went from $30 to $96 in 46 years then the next 44 year it sky rockets.