Jeremy Grantham’s Bubble Predictions

AnotherJoe

Sailtheworld said:

I don't have a crystal ball, neither does Grantham and neither do the analysts at JP Morgan predicting a 25% increase in the S&P500 this year.

I woudlnt trust anything JPM said. One hand says sell Acme Corp, the other is busily buying it for themselves. Bunch of crooks.

itwasntme001

AnotherJoe said:

Sailtheworld said:

I don't have a crystal ball, neither does Grantham and neither do the analysts at JP Morgan predicting a 25% increase in the S&P500 this year.

I woudlnt trust anything JPM said. One hand says sell Acme Corp, the other is busily buying it for themselves. Bunch of crooks.

I know someone who used to work in equity research for them.  From what he was saying they are certainly dodgy as hell.

Thrugelmir

itwasntme001 said:

AnotherJoe said:

Sailtheworld said:

I don't have a crystal ball, neither does Grantham and neither do the analysts at JP Morgan predicting a 25% increase in the S&P500 this year.

I woudlnt trust anything JPM said. One hand says sell Acme Corp, the other is busily buying it for themselves. Bunch of crooks.

I know someone who used to work in equity research for them.  From what he was saying they are certainly dodgy as hell.

Who are their corporate clients? Unlikely to issue a research paper advocating a sell rating for those that they represent. 

Cus

AnotherJoe said:

Sailtheworld said:

I don't have a crystal ball, neither does Grantham and neither do the analysts at JP Morgan predicting a 25% increase in the S&P500 this year.

I woudlnt trust anything JPM said. One hand says sell Acme Corp, the other is busily buying it for themselves. Bunch of crooks.

The Volcker rules had restricted this behaviour.

theGrinch

Is he still on display at UCL? I saw him in 1990 in a cupboard

ChilliBob

Ha ha that's Bentham, I went to UCL. 

BananaRepublic

theGrinch said:

Is he still on display at UCL? I saw him in 1990 in a cupboard

The head is a fake. 

Reaper

The bubble prediction does worry me because it rings true. On 1st May 2020 Elon Musk said on Twitter "Tesla stock price is too high imo"

Today it is 5 times higher.

Logic has gone out of the window but the question is how to reposition. Value investing (i.e. buying shares that look cheap today rather than ones that might be good value in the distant future) has had a miserable time in recent years but I'm wondering if now might be the time to have another look. There are long neglected value investing funds which might make a comeback.

itwasntme001

Reaper said:

The bubble prediction does worry me because it rings true. On 1st May 2020 Elon Musk said on Twitter "Tesla stock price is too high imo"

Today it is 5 times higher.

Logic has gone out of the window but the question is how to reposition. Value investing (i.e. buying shares that look cheap today rather than ones that might be good value in the distant future) has had a miserable time in recent years but I'm wondering if now might be the time to have another look. There are long neglected value investing funds which might make a comeback.

I think there is a strong case for value returning back in fashion but it will take some time before it goes mainstream and the like of Fundsmith and SMT being replaced by whoever is the top performing value investor.  The trick is to get there early for outsized gains.

The easier option is to just stick with a global tracker and let the market adjust the weightings for you over time.  So if your portfolio has a lot of growth style funds, maybe move them to a global tracker so you become more neutral.

Value may not be that cheap in itself but owning more of it and less of growth could mean you suffer less of a drawdown.  We could be in an everything bubble and perhaps higher interest rates and inflation is the pin that pricks it.

coastline

Following on from the OP's news link I've found the detailed article which is a very good read.
Waiting for the Last Dance (gmo.com)
3Q 2020 GMO Quarterly Letter
Market valuations in the US are high but have been there before in the 1960's with low interest rates.
EZ_91bOXQAAp1Zo (1400×1169) (twimg.com)
Earnings are still forecast higher and latest consensus 2020 $137 2021 $167 and 2022 $195.
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Will this hold out ?
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Some say bull run since 2009 but when you look it never regained highs until 2015.?
EhCv7GqUwAACMF8 (900×504) (twimg.com)
Could just stick a few more trillion on to keep it going ?
Eq35QyBXcAAl4tZ (900×398) (twimg.com)
Short term distance from 200 day moving average is rather high. These things tend to correct but its possible a sideways move is next.? If not we're going to the moon and the original article is on the ball. Plenty dips there for the OP to drip feed a lump sum.
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