Santa Rally?

mooneysaver

Apodemus said:

mooneysaver said:

Santa rallies have been regularly increasing as you can see from the chart below. I don't see anything different about this year which would break the cycle.

I'm not sure I see that at all from your chart. And even if it did show an increasing "santa rally" in the gold price, what relevance would that have to the rest of the market?

Actually this thread isn't about "what will happen to the rest of the market", but more as a discussion of where it all went horribly wrong for the UK? From the mighty British Empire to a mid tier country with a sub par economy. To be honest if it can happen to us then perhaps you're right and in 40 years the US economy could fall off the perch and India, China and Brazil take over and rule the world. Our with old in with the new kinda thing. 

Who knows... I guess it's just the natural cycle of things. There's only a certain amount of time you can remain dominant for, British Empire, Roman Empire, Persian Empire etc. They all ended up falling.

jimjames

There has certainly been some Santa rally in some areas although maybe not across the board. FTSE250 has gone up about 5% over the last month and SMT is up 16% from when I bought in Nov.

[Deleted User]

My portfolio has done very well over the past few weeks (SMT has gone up again and is now nearly 1200)

msallen

mooneysaver said:

Apodemus said:

mooneysaver said:

Santa rallies have been regularly increasing as you can see from the chart below. I don't see anything different about this year which would break the cycle.

I'm not sure I see that at all from your chart. And even if it did show an increasing "santa rally" in the gold price, what relevance would that have to the rest of the market?

Actually this thread isn't about "what will happen to the rest of the market", but more as a discussion of where it all went horribly wrong for the UK? From the mighty British Empire to a mid tier country with a sub par economy. To be honest if it can happen to us then perhaps you're right and in 40 years the US economy could fall off the perch and India, China and Brazil take over and rule the world. Our with old in with the new kinda thing. 

Who knows... I guess it's just the natural cycle of things. There's only a certain amount of time you can remain dominant for, British Empire, Roman Empire, Persian Empire etc. They all ended up falling.

Seems you have history with this sort of drivel - https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/77379692#Comment_77379692

Apodemus

msallen said:

Seems you have history with this sort of drivel - https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/77379692#Comment_77379692

Well spotted msallen! Must admit I was stuggling with the non-sequitur response to my post!

Doshwaster

Considering what a crap year it has been I'm fairly relieved to be finishing 2020 about 5% up across my whole portfolio. UK returns have been poor but the US market has been doing well. My US tracker is up 16% on the year despite the huge fall in March. Just wish I'd had the confidence (and spare cash) to pile in when everything was collapsing.

Old_Lifer

A Santa Rally ?   An Emerging Europe  Fund with  investments in Turkey should do well at this time of year.     Of course, if Turkey prices fall after Christmas, I'd be stuffed.

cricidmuslibale

Old_Lifer said:

A Santa Rally ?   An Emerging Europe  Fund with  investments in Turkey should do well at this time of year.     Of course, if Turkey prices fall after Christmas, I'd be stuffed.

That made me laugh! Thank you!

Thrugelmir

aroominyork said:

Thrugelmir said:

aroominyork said:

Alexland said:

Just realised that we haven't had the traditional forum Santa Rally thread yet. Is anyone seriously expecting a last minute surge or are we all just thankful that our investments survived the 2020 pandemic with modest gains? Was this year's crash the start of a new market cycle or are we still at the end of the long bull run that followed 2008?

That.

Thrugelmir said:

Be the usual closing of open positions ahead of financial year at the investment banks etc. 

Can you explain that please? De-technicalise it.

To close a position you sell a security or an option that you hold. Could be either a long or short position. 

Are you saying that Santa rallies are partly caused by stacks of people/institutions who have shorted a stock being forced buyers by 31 December? 

Not exclusively but part of the much bigger picture. Besides the direct trading of shares. There's futures, options, CFD's etc that all have to be settled as it's not just calendar year end but also the normal quarter end. 

grumiofoundation

Old_Lifer said:

A Santa Rally ?   An Emerging Europe  Fund with  investments in Turkey should do well at this time of year.     Of course, if Turkey prices fall after Christmas, I'd be stuffed.

I would expect the Belgium stock market to sprout upwards as well.