Santa Rally?

Prism

EdGasketTheThird said:

masonic said:

EdGasketTheThird said:

A year-end melt-up is on the cards imho

A melt-up? We've had plenty of that already, haven't we?

S&P to 4500; DOW to 35000 by early next year.

Bit of a change of heart for you isn't it?

aroominyork

Alexland said:

Just realised that we haven't had the traditional forum Santa Rally thread yet. Is anyone seriously expecting a last minute surge or are we all just thankful that our investments survived the 2020 pandemic with modest gains? Was this year's crash the start of a new market cycle or are we still at the end of the long bull run that followed 2008?

That.

Thrugelmir said:

Be the usual closing of open positions ahead of financial year at the investment banks etc. 

Can you explain that please? De-technicalise it.

eskbanker

Prism said:

EdGasketTheThird said:

masonic said:

EdGasketTheThird said:

A year-end melt-up is on the cards imho

A melt-up? We've had plenty of that already, haven't we?

S&P to 4500; DOW to 35000 by early next year.

Bit of a change of heart for you isn't it?

Are you confusing him with a completely different now-banned poster?

Michael121

Not sure why he would have been banned

Thrugelmir

aroominyork said:

Alexland said:

Just realised that we haven't had the traditional forum Santa Rally thread yet. Is anyone seriously expecting a last minute surge or are we all just thankful that our investments survived the 2020 pandemic with modest gains? Was this year's crash the start of a new market cycle or are we still at the end of the long bull run that followed 2008?

That.

Thrugelmir said:

Be the usual closing of open positions ahead of financial year at the investment banks etc. 

Can you explain that please? De-technicalise it.

To close a position you sell a security or an option that you hold. Could be either a long or short position. 

cricidmuslibale

Thrugelmir said:

csgohan4 said:

with the brexit in the balance, it could go either way tbh, although some could argue if it hasn't already been built in already. Clearly you can see that with the air line industry based in Europe taking a hit last 1 week or so

Who has a reliable crystal ball?

Index trackers and energy funds are the way to go at present

Global airlines are hardly faring any better. BA announced the scrapping of a number of international routes today.  

That may not be good news for all investors but it is potentially good news for saving planet Earth! One of the only silver linings to the massive cloud that is the COVID pandemic is that far fewer planes have been in the sky; if catastrophic global warming is to be prevented in c. 30 years time then all those who pre-COVID were frequent flyers for business (or indeed personal reasons) must simply find a way of still making good money whilst flying much less than before! [There are many other climate saving measures that will also need to be taken alongside this substantial reduction in air traffic obviously.]

aroominyork

Thrugelmir said:

aroominyork said:

Alexland said:

Just realised that we haven't had the traditional forum Santa Rally thread yet. Is anyone seriously expecting a last minute surge or are we all just thankful that our investments survived the 2020 pandemic with modest gains? Was this year's crash the start of a new market cycle or are we still at the end of the long bull run that followed 2008?

That.

Thrugelmir said:

Be the usual closing of open positions ahead of financial year at the investment banks etc. 

Can you explain that please? De-technicalise it.

To close a position you sell a security or an option that you hold. Could be either a long or short position. 

Are you saying that Santa rallies are partly caused by stacks of people/institutions who have shorted a stock being forced buyers by 31 December? 

bowlhead99

aroominyork said:

Thrugelmir said:

aroominyork said:

Alexland said:

Just realised that we haven't had the traditional forum Santa Rally thread yet. Is anyone seriously expecting a last minute surge or are we all just thankful that our investments survived the 2020 pandemic with modest gains? Was this year's crash the start of a new market cycle or are we still at the end of the long bull run that followed 2008?

That.

Thrugelmir said:

Be the usual closing of open positions ahead of financial year at the investment banks etc. 

Can you explain that please? De-technicalise it.

To close a position you sell a security or an option that you hold. Could be either a long or short position. 

Are you saying that Santa rallies are partly caused by stacks of people/institutions who have shorted a stock being forced buyers by 31 December? 

There may be some closing and re opening of both short and long positions to convert unrealised to realised gains for presentation purposes, which can add trading volume to otherwise quiet markets as people wind up for holidays. And you might imagine if an investment house with a long/short strategy has a particularly large short exposure to a stock or the market generally and wants to be able to disclose more of a net long position in its year end report, or a fund has a high level of stock out on loan from time to time and prefers to show a lower level of that in its financial report so wants to take back its stock by year end, there would be some closing and tidy up of open shorts.

More generally, as markets can be quiet over the Christmas / new year period with people on holiday, trading volumes and liquidity may be expected to be lower for a short while. When markers are more thinly traded, price moves will be exaggerated because the market is more sensitive to individual trades...

For example some AIM tiddlers see wide spreads and low volumes even in normal conditions, so if someone wants to buy £500k during a quiet Christmas week there can be more of an impact on offer price than at other times, and visibly rising prices can affect sentiment and cause people to notice the stock or want to jump upon the bandwagon; that effect is muted in large-cap companies but can still happen to an extent.

mooneysaver

Santa rallies have been regularly increasing as you can see from the chart below. I don't see anything different about this year which would break the cycle.

Apodemus

mooneysaver said:

Santa rallies have been regularly increasing as you can see from the chart below. I don't see anything different about this year which would break the cycle.

I'm not sure I see that at all from your chart. And even if it did show an increasing "santa rally" in the gold price, what relevance would that have to the rest of the market?