FTSE rising whilst prospect of FTA seems to be fading

Another_Saver

I'd like another crash so I can buy more at sale prices 🤷‍♂️

In any event, the FTSE 100 and 250 are generally closely correlated but I prefer the 250 for the more domestic focus, greater diversity, lower concentration and record of outperformance which appears to have come from net acquisitions of co's in the index from co's outside the index.
And the total market has historically been strongly correlated with GDP over the long term.
Don't try and make sense of short term movements. It's that saying, in the short term the market is a voting machine, in the long term a weighing machine.

Thrugelmir

Another_Saver said:

I'd like another crash so I can buy more at sale prices 🤷‍♂️

Individual share prices have been bobbing up and down. Set some price alerts. As there are bargains to be had.

Another_Saver

Thrugelmir said:

Another_Saver said:

I'd like another crash so I can buy more at sale prices 🤷‍♂️

Individual share prices have been bobbing up and down. Set some price alerts. As there are bargains to be had.

Alas I only buy index funds.

Another_Saver

Yep just worked it out. In absolute real terms the UK stock market and GDP r=0.85, whether using index year start or end. Using the LN function on the same dataset reduces r to 0.75 (0.74 for index year start, 0.76 index year-end).
Sources: ONS, Barclays Equity gilts study

0779mike

Another_Saver what does that mean to simple folk like me, please ?

Linton

Another_Saver said:

Thrugelmir said:

Another_Saver said:

I'd like another crash so I can buy more at sale prices 🤷‍♂️

Individual share prices have been bobbing up and down. Set some price alerts. As there are bargains to be had.

Alas I only buy index funds.

So in a crash you preferentially buy those equities which have fallen the least? Seems an interesting strategy.

Another_Saver

0779mike said:

Another_Saver what does that mean to simple folk like me, please ?

In the long term the UK stock market and UK economy have been strongly related. I would say that they "are" related but who knows what the future holds.

Linton said:

Another_Saver said:

Thrugelmir said:

Another_Saver said:

I'd like another crash so I can buy more at sale prices 🤷‍♂️

Individual share prices have been bobbing up and down. Set some price alerts. As there are bargains to be had.

Alas I only buy index funds.

So in a crash you preferentially buy those equities which have fallen the least? Seems an interesting strategy.

Isn't that one of those classic straw man arguments against indexing. I like buying the whole market as cheaply as possible. I use index funds anyway, that is my strategy, and then try and buy as much as I can as cheap as I can. I cba with individual shares. To quote Buffett, just looking at the price is not investing, you're suggesting looking at the price before looking at the stock.

BananaRepublic

I have a feeling that the markets have priced in a free trade deal between the UK and EU. I do think we will get a deal, but I worry about the consequences of no deal on my investments (a very selfish viewpoint no doubt). 
No deal would hit the EU, and Eire in particular, which is why I think a deal is likely. 

Alexland

BananaRepublic said:

I do think we will get a deal, but I worry about the consequences of no deal on my investments

If the pound sinks then all global investments should go up as they did in 2016. In the event of a deal, which seems likely, the pound could go up to 1.40+ usd and we could see at least 10% growth in UK equity valuations. Last week when the pound was lower I switched our iWeb ISAs from a global tracker into CTY to try and capture some of that upside to partially offset the decline in our other investment accounts if the pound was to rise. The UK market is still looking very good value particularly for those seeking income - it can't all be a trap.

MPN

Alexland said:

BananaRepublic said:

I do think we will get a deal, but I worry about the consequences of no deal on my investments

If the pound sinks then all global investments should go up as they did in 2016. In the event of a deal, which seems likely, the pound could go up to 1.40+ usd and we could see at least 10% growth in UK equity valuations. Last week when the pound was lower I switched our iWeb ISAs from a global tracker into CTY to try and capture some of that upside to partially offset the decline in our other investment accounts if the pound was to rise. The UK market is still looking very good value particularly for those seeking income - it can't all be a trap.

I pretty much did the same and was trying to decide between Murray Income and Evenlode Income. I considered splitting the money between the two but In the end I went with Murray Income.