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Brexit deal currency movements
Alexland
Posts: 9,804 Forumite
Another nice start to the day with our global investments up around 1% to achieve new highs but does anyone else have the feeling of impending doom that we might just be about to agree a brexit deal and the pound will shoot up to 1.40 USD or higher? How far to go down in a no deal scenario maybe 1.15 USD? Last week I hedged my risk a little bit by taking on some UK bias (which has gone down so far today).
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With the prospect of a pivot to a UK-US trade deal after no deal exit with EU now seemingly dead, it would take a serious amount of cojones for us to not secure a deal from here. I can't see anything else than a red, white a blue surrender deal. We'll push it to the wire to try and secure as much as possible but ultimately when it comes to the final hurdle we'll take whatever is on the table.
It may push GBP higher but I'm not convinced it will sky rocket. It's going to be a light tough, bad deal for the UK. It's better than no deal but....
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I predict it is unpredictable. Keep calm and carry on.0
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Most interesting for me will be to see the impact of passive index investing on price movements. I do wonder if the "GBP up, FTSE 100 down" assumption is going to be broken if we do get a deal, with both rising in tandem.2
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MaxiRobriguez said:Most interesting for me will be to see the impact of passive index investing on price movements. I do wonder if the "GBP up, FTSE 100 down" assumption is going to be broken if we do get a deal, with both rising in tandem.
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I hope it breaks that stupid assumption because it's a false myth anyway, hmph2
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I have money sitting in a bank account in Hong Kong. I'm waiting for the HKD/GBP to improve so I can bring that money home. HKD is pegged to the USD and the last time it was any good for me was back in August. Hoping Brexit might help out!0
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Alexland said:Another nice start to the day with our global investments up around 1% to achieve new highs but does anyone else have the feeling of impending doom that we might just be about to agree a brexit deal and the pound will shoot up to 1.40 USD or higher? How far to go down in a no deal scenario maybe 1.15 USD? Last week I hedged my risk a little bit by taking on some UK bias (which has gone down so far today).
Its a mugs game trying to double guess the exchange rate. Too many moving parts.
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AnotherJoe said:Its a mugs game trying to double guess the exchange rate. Too many moving parts.
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Alexland said:AnotherJoe said:Its a mugs game trying to double guess the exchange rate. Too many moving parts.If you are a long term investor, why bother managing anything that has a short term binary impact? Its probably swings and roundabouts in the long term.0
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Another_Saver said:I hope it breaks that stupid assumption because it's a false myth anyway, hmph0
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