Bitcoin

HansOndabush

Taking a 10% loss on an investment you are no longer happy with is good policy; 'cut your losses' is what you are supposed to do so they don't get out of hand. It doesn't mean that person is dim as you put it. The market is made up of buyers and sellers, winners and losers. Bitcoin only reacts to speculation and hence is a zero-sum game, less costs, for all players. Maybe your bulb will blow when bitcoin crashes, then we'll see who the dimmest bulb in the box is.

Another_Saver

[Deleted User] said:

bowlhead99 said:

Another_Savero said:

[Deleted User] said:

I am happy with my 160% in 6 months, aren't you guys? That's very sad how naysayers and haters are loosing out to those who are not afraid to bet 1% of their money to have 200x bigger return comparing to laughable <1% saving accounts.

So you believe that whereas the "market cap* of bitcoin is about £370 billion now, that it can increase by 200x to £74 trillion, bearing in mind the total market cap of the entire world is currently less than £50 trillion, all of the gold in the world is valued less than £10 trillion, and global wealth totals about £265 trillion, within a reasonable time frame?

Perhaps you did your maths wrong. He said that his 160% over six months was a 200x bigger return than some of the laughable <1% saving accounts. Obviously, the return was not without risk (unlike the guaranteed return from the savings accounts).

He did not say he expects the BTC price of $27k to increase by 200x to $5.4 million per coin any time soon.

Of course he did his math wrong (I'm ignoring his posts but noticed your quotes).

What I meant is £100 invested in Bitcoin gives you 200x more return than saving account over the same, (recent) time period. Simple math <1% vs 160%. Some people fighting over 0.5% saving account access I've seen in the other thread in this very forum.

And to other fellow forum users replying: I've been investing in Bitcoin for a long time. My 6 month price return is just an example. Take any given period of years and compare it to today, Bitcoin return beats everything. It's very volatile, I give it that. Bitcoin is at all time high right now, so whoever invested in the past have profit today (by means of profitable open position which can be liquidated immediately at any exchange). I laugh when I read people saying they bought it, it doubled and then fell, so they sold it at a loss because they got bored 😂 Patient approach with strategy (DCA for example) can bring you results, not only with Bitcoin. But for some people Bitcoin is a gamble - well, if their approach is like they said maybe they shouldn't touch any money and leave everything in saving accounts 🤣 But fact that some people can't make money on Bitcoin or lost on it doesn't invalidate it as an investment - it just merely idenfity "investor" as not the brightest bulb.

@[Deleted User], I do not need to state that my maths, as a Maths graduate, in both examples, is obviously correct. The maths I used is covered in the GCSE syllabus, I suggest you look it up. Mocking someone you're arguing when they are factually correct is just sad. It's ironic you feel a need to denegrate the intelligence of literally everyone who doesn't "invest" in Bitcoin given how lacking your own demonstrably is. You have still failed to provide any cogent explanation why Bitcoin, to quote @Barnstar2077, should be considered an investable asset as it is merely a thing with a variable price in fiat currency.

So let me ask you this, setting aside whether Bitcoin should be thought of as an investable asset, what returns do you expect from Bitcoin over say, 2021 or over the next decade?

*I can still see your posts so unsure if you have actually put me on ignore or not. Regardless, as long as I can see your posts I can hopefully warn anyone you try and scam.

[Deleted User]

HansOndabush said:

Taking a 10% loss on an investment you are no longer happy with is good policy; 'cut your losses' is what you are supposed to do so they don't get out of hand. It doesn't mean that person is dim as you put it.

Yes I agree with you. What I was mocking was description that forumite @Cus got bored and decided to sell at a loss. Boredom is determining force in investment planning for some people, no wonder they are losing money.

HansOndabush said:

The market is made up of buyers and sellers, winners and losers. Bitcoin only reacts to speculation and hence is a zero-sum game, less costs, for all players. Maybe your bulb will blow when bitcoin crashes, then we'll see who the dimmest bulb in the box is.

I already cashed out dozens of times more than I invested initially. I know volatility of Bitcoin and I understand risks I've taken (which paid off) and I understand current risks, but I am still invested with funds I am comfortable having in Bitcoin. I am "second type" investor like @Cus have put it (but still allowed to point out on forums 160% return vs <1% on saving account).

How can my "bulb" can blow in that case, please?

Voyager2002

Have you considered investing in horse-manure? It is a commodity that is actually useful under certain circumstances, unlike...

HansOndabush

Voyager2002 said:

Have you considered investing in horse-manure? It is a commodity that is actually useful under certain circumstances, unlike...

I wouldn't class that as a very liquid investment; not unless the horse had a digestive problem!

[Deleted User]

Voyager2002 said:

Have you considered investing in horse-manure? It is a commodity that is actually useful under certain circumstances, unlike...

By implying that Bitcoin is not useful and horse manure is more useful from it, clearly you show your lack of fundamental (or any) knowledge about it, don't know what it is and you never used it, but you gonna participate in discussion anyway. That reminds me of Dunning-Kruger effect (Wikipedia).

TL;DR: "A cognitive bias by which an unskilled individual suffers from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability as much higher than it actually is."

If we count people under influence of Dunning–Kruger effect in this thread I am sure there would be plenty of candidates.

Another_Saver

[Deleted User] said:

Voyager2002 said:

Have you considered investing in horse-manure? It is a commodity that is actually useful under certain circumstances, unlike...

By implying that Bitcoin is not useful and horse manure is more useful from it, clearly you show your lack of fundamental (or any) knowledge about it, don't know what it is and you never used it, but you gonna participate in discussion anyway. That reminds me of Dunning-Kruger effect (Wikipedia).

TL;DR: "A cognitive bias by which an unskilled individual suffers from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability as much higher than it actually is."

If we count people under influence of Dunning–Kruger effect in this thread I am sure there would be plenty of candidates.

Narcissism Level 9000.

Cus

[Deleted User] said:

HansOndabush said:

Taking a 10% loss on an investment you are no longer happy with is good policy; 'cut your losses' is what you are supposed to do so they don't get out of hand. It doesn't mean that person is dim as you put it.

Yes I agree with you. What I was mocking was description that forumite @Cus got bored and decided to sell at a loss. Boredom is determining force in investment planning for some people, no wonder they are losing money.

HansOndabush said:

The market is made up of buyers and sellers, winners and losers. Bitcoin only reacts to speculation and hence is a zero-sum game, less costs, for all players. Maybe your bulb will blow when bitcoin crashes, then we'll see who the dimmest bulb in the box is.

I already cashed out dozens of times more than I invested initially. I know volatility of Bitcoin and I understand risks I've taken (which paid off) and I understand current risks, but I am still invested with funds I am comfortable having in Bitcoin. I am "second type" investor like @Cus have put it (but still allowed to point out on forums 160% return vs <1% on saving account).

How can my "bulb" can blow in that case, please?

Yes I got bored as buying bitcoin it's very much not an investment planning process for me, hence deciding to go bet on the footie instead. But that is because imo I am that first type of 'investor' as I described. 

I'd consider myself very much an amateur when it comes to proper investing hence I pay a company to (hopefully) do it better than I could for now.  I'm always interested in people's methods with true investing (like the second type of investor I mentioned and that you said you relate to) especially with bitcoin. What I don't understand is why you refer to cashing out multiple times? Is that a timing the market reference? Selling at highs, waiting for it to drop, buying again? Or was it arbitrage across other crypto currencies?  Also, what funds?
Most people will invest and then add to that investment over time, building up that portfolio percentage.  Sounds like you went a different route so was intrigued.  Thanks.

bowlhead99

Cus said:

[Deleted User] said:
I already cashed out dozens of times more than I invested initially. I know volatility of Bitcoin and I understand risks I've taken (which paid off) and I understand current risks, but I am still invested with funds I am comfortable having in Bitcoin. 

What I don't understand is why you refer to cashing out multiple times? Is that a timing the market reference? Selling at highs, waiting for it to drop, buying again? Or was it arbitrage across other crypto currencies?  

He mentioned cashing amount 'dozens of times more' than he had invested initially. That simply means the amount of sales proceeds is an order of magnitude greater than what he had initially paid. If you were investing at the $300-500 level back in 2013-15 (or even lower in previous years), and selling at the $5000 - 25000 level in 2017-2020, you would have been able to take a return of 15-80x more than your initial purchase without needing to do any of the 'exit at high, wait for it to crash 75%, buy in again and wait for the new high etc.' malarkey which would likely be difficult to get the timing right.

In other words, simply buying a chunk of coins, and holding on to them well beyond the initial 'tempting to cash out now for 50% profit', might allow you to ultimately make cashouts of five times, ten times, twelve times, sixty times your original stake ('dozens of times more than I invested initially') .  The same can be true for those who bought shares in Tesla, Fevertree, Asos, Ocado - more tangible investments of course but still carrying risks of failure with potential for huge rewards if it worked out. 

Also, what funds?

There is perhaps a language barrier, but he refers to currently being invested 'with funds he's comfortable having in bitcoin'. For example, someone with £200k of liquid wealth might be comfortable with having £2 or £200 or £2000 or £20000 of their funds tied up in bitcoin at a point in time - it is a figure of speech about how much of their money is in crypto, but doesn't mean they are literally buying a fund which is exposed to bitcoin. It is cheaper and more efficient to just buy the coins directly.

For what it's worth, in my pension I do have a 'tracker fund'-type exposure to Bitcoin, as I bought a few thousand worth of a Bitcoin ETC (BTCE, trading as DE000A27Z304 on Xetra) this summer. However due to FCA guidance within the last month, most DIY pension providers have stopped offering crypto-linked products such as that or XBT / XBTE (traded in Sweden) to retail investors and will only let you keep what you already have or sell, rather than buy more.

I have sold a bit as I liked the quick gains, but if I sold more I would not be able to buy back without jumping through some hoops, so it makes me something of a captive investor - but at <1% of the pension it can just sit there as a curiosity without me worrying about it damaging my wealth or me getting bored of seeing it there.

Most people will invest and then add to that investment over time, building up that portfolio percentage.  Sounds like you went a different route so was intrigued.  Thanks.

If you put 1% of your portfolio into something and it grows to 10x or 50x its cost over the course of a few years, you will more likely need to be trimming it back within the portfolio rather than adding more to it over time.  As many will have done with their BTC in the last few years or Another_Saver will have done with his Tesla etc. 

For the avoidance of doubt, I'm not expecting another 50x growth over the next few years from what I have now            though I have done well from it in the past (more than enough profit to fund the purchase I made within the pension several times over).

planteria

I am happy with my 160% in 6 months, aren't you guys? 

i'm pleased for you patient.
what i've put into bitcoin, what i've taken out, and what i still have, are amazing.. but that can happen if we can pick an asset that is moving up rapidly and are prepared to risk capital.
i'm generating interest with my bitcoin, but we can't compare it to cash savings accounts (which i have too) because there is clear volatility and risk involved. fwiw i manage it more similarly to an equity in my portfolio, with it moving up and down, and i can trade in & out if i want to.
good luck for 2021.