BITCOIN

Zola.

Oxford will have the option to keep whatever Bitcoin they want from sales, or just take fiat cash... 

On the subject of football, here is a non-league team who are a heavily focused Bitcoin club, who also openly share their financial reports. 

https://www.realbedford.com/
https://www.realbedford.com/transparency
https://www.realbedford.com/income-report-june-22

If nothing else we live in interesting times 

barnstar2077

Aegis said:

Linton said:

Zola. said:

Cus said:

After the last few minutes months has it shook you Zola our are you still committed?  

What kind of events need to happen for you to cut losses?
Comment: This is not a dig, I'd like to know what a pro bitcoin investor thinks?

Not at all. I am not aiming to trade Bitcoin on a very short term basis, so my time horizon is far out. I am also adding to my stack when the prices are low (as well as continuing to buy index funds etc).

What events would need to happen to cut losses? It would have to be something utterly devastating, like a serious bug in the code, or some other catastrophic self inflected wound.

Everything else is just speculation and noise. 

Are prices for Bitcoin low at the moment?  What analysis tells you that?

Bitcoin has dropped by more than 40%  (in USD) in the past year.  Why could it not drop by 40% in the next year?

This is exactly the question I keep coming back to - how do you determine fair value so that you know whether short term movements are buying opportunities?  The answer usually seems to be "long term trend", which in my view simply doesn't adequately answer the question of where value comes from.

Well, it's simple.  You start with the value of the underlying asset that the tokens you are purchasing are based upon... 

Aegis

barnstar2077 said:

Aegis said:

Linton said:

Zola. said:

Cus said:

After the last few minutes months has it shook you Zola our are you still committed?  

What kind of events need to happen for you to cut losses?
Comment: This is not a dig, I'd like to know what a pro bitcoin investor thinks?

Not at all. I am not aiming to trade Bitcoin on a very short term basis, so my time horizon is far out. I am also adding to my stack when the prices are low (as well as continuing to buy index funds etc).

What events would need to happen to cut losses? It would have to be something utterly devastating, like a serious bug in the code, or some other catastrophic self inflected wound.

Everything else is just speculation and noise. 

Are prices for Bitcoin low at the moment?  What analysis tells you that?

Bitcoin has dropped by more than 40%  (in USD) in the past year.  Why could it not drop by 40% in the next year?

This is exactly the question I keep coming back to - how do you determine fair value so that you know whether short term movements are buying opportunities?  The answer usually seems to be "long term trend", which in my view simply doesn't adequately answer the question of where value comes from.

Well, it's simple.  You start with the value of the underlying asset that the tokens you are purchasing are based upon... 

That certainly tends to be the conclusion I eventually reach with any attempt to value these tokens.

jcontest

Aegis said:

Linton said:

Zola. said:

Cus said:

After the last few minutes months has it shook you Zola our are you still committed?  

What kind of events need to happen for you to cut losses?
Comment: This is not a dig, I'd like to know what a pro bitcoin investor thinks?

Not at all. I am not aiming to trade Bitcoin on a very short term basis, so my time horizon is far out. I am also adding to my stack when the prices are low (as well as continuing to buy index funds etc).

What events would need to happen to cut losses? It would have to be something utterly devastating, like a serious bug in the code, or some other catastrophic self inflected wound.

Everything else is just speculation and noise. 

Are prices for Bitcoin low at the moment?  What analysis tells you that?

Bitcoin has dropped by more than 40%  (in USD) in the past year.  Why could it not drop by 40% in the next year?

This is exactly the question I keep coming back to - how do you determine fair value so that you know whether short term movements are buying opportunities?  The answer usually seems to be "long term trend", which in my view simply doesn't adequately answer the question of where value comes from.

There is nothing to back the value of BTC.  If I buy 20,000 lottery tickets today they have no value at all (Until draw date), it is the same thing.  BTC has thus far been nothing more than a self fulfilling ponzi scheme.  I did "mine" coins and ran a full node way back when they were worthless, I may have even mined a few coins - Honestly don't remember and I can't find my wallets (I had I think 5).  In the "Developed" world BTC is obviously a huge risk, in highly unstable parts of the world (rampant inflation) BTC COULD help those who have high wealth.  Just keep in mind that BTC can be taxed as CGT in the UK and in other parts of the world too.

If you did want to assign an actual "value" to BTC then it would likely be the mining cost and that's stuck somewhere between $15k and $20k.  Mining cost will continually move upwards so sure there is a trend in that regard.

It's a lottery ticket.  It may pay out big or you may walk away with nothing.

thegentleway

it does look like gambling to me.
blockchain is great and I can see crypto being internet money but it’s gambling on which coin(s) will prevail. Seems to me the odds of the original prototype being the dominant one are very low.

jcontest

Aegis said:

Linton said:

Zola. said:

Cus said:

After the last few minutes months has it shook you Zola our are you still committed?  

What kind of events need to happen for you to cut losses?
Comment: This is not a dig, I'd like to know what a pro bitcoin investor thinks?

Not at all. I am not aiming to trade Bitcoin on a very short term basis, so my time horizon is far out. I am also adding to my stack when the prices are low (as well as continuing to buy index funds etc).

What events would need to happen to cut losses? It would have to be something utterly devastating, like a serious bug in the code, or some other catastrophic self inflected wound.

Everything else is just speculation and noise. 

Are prices for Bitcoin low at the moment?  What analysis tells you that?

Bitcoin has dropped by more than 40%  (in USD) in the past year.  Why could it not drop by 40% in the next year?

This is exactly the question I keep coming back to - how do you determine fair value so that you know whether short term movements are buying opportunities?  The answer usually seems to be "long term trend", which in my view simply doesn't adequately answer the question of where value comes from.

I think we should look at "paying with BTC" in the same way as "Cash Accepted" or "Pay by Phone" or "Pay with Visa".  For people that hold huge amounts of BTC the swings could be against you when you purchase something (cash in your BTC) but you could save a lot too.  Early days I loved the idea of BTC, these days I do not.  It doesn't scale well at all and I think that will eventually mean the end for it.  Plus a lot of people think it's "hiding" your money and transactions (Much like they think of a VPN for networks) but when they soon realise that there is a public ledger that can track their money forever then the luster on that idea will dull.

fwor

jcontest said:

BTC has thus far been nothing more than a self fulfilling ponzi scheme.

It's a lottery ticket.  It may pay out big or you may walk away with nothing.

I don't think either of those comparisons is fair to Bitcoin. A Ponzi scheme has a very well-defined set of characteristics, and Bitcoin doesn't match. Similarly, with a lottery ticket, either you win or you don't and then the ticket has no value.That doesn't describe Bitcoin at all - IMO it will continue to exist, with an accepted value, for many years to come.

Having said that, I've never "invested", for a number of reasons. One is the lack of transparency and accountability at the edges - at the exchanges, which every owner is dependent on to change into something they can use as everyday currency.

But more than that, the problem for me is that Bitcoin was a prototype. It was a good one, but still riddled with flaws. IMO it will slowly drop into obscurity as better cryptocurrency systems are developed. And IMO those are likely to be utilitarian - a means to an end, and not something that anyone would ever consider "investing" in.

jcontest

fwor said:

jcontest said:

BTC has thus far been nothing more than a self fulfilling ponzi scheme.

It's a lottery ticket.  It may pay out big or you may walk away with nothing.

I don't think either of those comparisons is fair to Bitcoin. A Ponzi scheme has a very well-defined set of characteristics, and Bitcoin doesn't match. Similarly, with a lottery ticket, either you win or you don't and then the ticket has no value.That doesn't describe Bitcoin at all - IMO it will continue to exist, with an accepted value, for many years to come.

Having said that, I've never "invested", for a number of reasons. One is the lack of transparency and accountability at the edges - at the exchanges, which every owner is dependent on to change into something they can use as everyday currency.

But more than that, the problem for me is that Bitcoin was a prototype. It was a good one, but still riddled with flaws. IMO it will slowly drop into obscurity as better cryptocurrency systems are developed. And IMO those are likely to be utilitarian - a means to an end, and not something that anyone would ever consider "investing" in.

It is something that's difficult to compare to.  It was probably around 2010/2011 back when I was dealing with it, and honestly back then we would just give each other portions of coins because it was something neat to play with.  To me, and it may just be me, It's quite a bit like a Ponzi or Pyramid scheme now.  Neither do fit into what Bitcoin is but they come close.  You will find less "Winners" in BTC than "Losers".  Speculation is a rough game, if people have money to burn then I guess it's not a big deal.  Our Governments will eventually adopt some form of "Digital" currency, but something like BTC can't scale globablly unless there's a lot of design changes.  It's also a bit backwards too, the more BTC is used is the more cost it incurs (by processors), where with cash, the more it's used is the more processors can cut cost due to volume.

fwor

jcontest said:

It's quite a bit like a Ponzi or Pyramid scheme now.

Bear in mind that you're adding to a thread that has 235 pages of comments already.

What you are saying has been said here before, earlier in the thread (probably several times over) and neither the analogy with Ponzi nor with pyramid type schemes holds up to closer examination.

But I think it's generally agreed that it doesn't scale well, and it is ridiculously (some would say unacceptably) resource-intensive in its current form. Both issues have been worked on, and continue to be worked on, but I don't personally see that as being fixable with Bitcoin. Other cryptocurrency solutions will be better.

Aegis

fwor said:

What you are saying has been said here before, earlier in the thread (probably several times over) and neither the analogy with Ponzi nor with pyramid type schemes holds up to closer examination.

I have yet to see any actual analysis that leads me to think it's anything other than a Ponzi scheme.  236 pages or not.