Really confused about what I want :(

Crashy_Time

Salemicus said:

IMO the house is worth about 80k, that isn`t a prediction it is my opinion.

This might be the stupidest thing I've seen you write, and that's saying something.

There is a narrative in the financial media at the moment that good news on a vaccine is going to (and is) pushing up bond rates and will feed into higher mortgage rates, so IMO a vaccine means pressure on house prices and no vaccine means pressure (big pressure) on house prices.

No, very next sentence, we have a new winner. The perfect distillation of the illogic that is your worldview.

Can you explain why the view on bonds/interest rates in relation to mortgages and vaccine sentiment is stupid?

Crashy_Time

spoovy said:

Crashy_Time said:

London is showing us the future though...
https://www.property118.com/sadiq-khan-launches-property-licence-checker-for-tenants/

Crashy, yes we know, prices will come down, at some point and by some amount.  But when, and by how much?
What you do is the equivalent of telling everyone you meet that they're going to die.  Yes it may be true, but it's a totally banal statement unless you're also able to tell them when and how.

History tells us that when bubbles pop they do so suddenly and quite violently, they tend not to go for the slow deflation route, hence the MASSIVE interference in the market we have seen since 2008. The question isn`t really When? or How Much? IMO, it is - Can they keep going with the same level of intervention any longer, and will public sentiment remain positive towards a debt bubble that is pricing key workers out of homes? IMO if you look at the regulation changes in London on landlords recently it is obvious that politicians see the danger of ignoring the renter vote much longer, and if you add to that the priced out young living with their parents it is a sizeable chunk of voters that will cheer on the bursting property bubble now? 2008 was a very different world, totally different demographic and general sentiment.

hazyjo

Crashy, please please please stop trying to make every single effing thread about general house prices. You must have been dancing round your 'flat' in excitement when Covid hit that there may FINALLY be a crash and you could ignore the reason but claim your (long term) prediction was right. And STILL you're being proved wrong.

I really don't know what you're still doing here. Bored now.

Salemicus

Crashy_Time said:

Salemicus said:

IMO the house is worth about 80k, that isn`t a prediction it is my opinion.

This might be the stupidest thing I've seen you write, and that's saying something.

There is a narrative in the financial media at the moment that good news on a vaccine is going to (and is) pushing up bond rates and will feed into higher mortgage rates, so IMO a vaccine means pressure on house prices and no vaccine means pressure (big pressure) on house prices.

No, very next sentence, we have a new winner. The perfect distillation of the illogic that is your worldview.

Can you explain why the view on bonds/interest rates in relation to mortgages and vaccine sentiment is stupid?

That's not the hugely stupid bit. The hugely stupid bit is that you think that both a vaccine and no vaccine means lower house prices.

House prices today = P(vaccine)*E(house prices|vaccine) + P(no vaccine)*E(house prices|no vaccine). If you think a vaccine will lower house prices, you must think that no vaccine will raise them, for your beliefs to be logically consistent. That's just the maths of it.

There's an old joke about a physicist explaining the data on a graph, and why the line slopes down. After a while, one of his students points out that he's holding the graph upside down, so the line really slopes up. The professor pauses for a second, then says "Well, in this case, the data is even easier to explain!" So with you.

jls85

Crashy_Time said:

MFWannabe said:

Crashy_Time said:

Salemicus said:

MFWannabe said:

RelievedSheff said:

I'm starting to think you and Dan could be the same person!!

Must be surely? 

No, I doubt it. Crashy is essentially a troll, Dan seems like a genuine but troubled person.

In all seriousness, threads like this are why I hate Crashy. If he wants to waste his time spouting unfalsifiable nonsense about house prices, I don't really care. But when he comes into threads like this, and gives truly terrible advice to a clearly anxious person, he's doing real damage. And that's why his refusal to make specific predictions about his "house price crash" grate so much. He's very happy to imply to Dan that he'd be overpaying by 50% on that house. But if challenged, Crashy won't predict that house prices in that (or any!) area will fall by any particular amount in any particular timeframe.

It's utterly bogus and irresponsible, and I wish he could be banned.

IMO the house is worth about 80k, that isn`t a prediction it is my opinion. There is a narrative in the financial media at the moment that good news on a vaccine is going to (and is) pushing up bond rates and will feed into higher mortgage rates, so IMO a vaccine means pressure on house prices and no vaccine means pressure (big pressure) on house prices. You have to remember also that the economy was in trouble before Covid. What is irresponsible IMO is egging someone on to buy a frankly pretty basic property at inflated prices that they obviously are nowhere near 100% committed to buying. OP follow your own intuition and maybe tune into some more in depth financial news from time to time rather than follow advice on the internet from people who already have large mortgages or may even be multiple property landlords and are obviously worried about the general economic outlook for their VI.

No one is egging on the OP to buy anything; he asked for advice which was given 
we have all said many times it is his choice; like it’s everyones choice of how and where they live; including yourself. 
As for the comment about large mortgages etc. Nope not me and my property has risen by 30k in the 5 years I’ve owned it, I’m really glad I bought when I did tbh. 👍

I find that unlikely in the event of actually trying to sell it now, the headline stats are skewed up by the small number of very expensive properties that sell and reduced transactions meaning that relying on paper gains isn`t really very sensible, and even if you had it valued a buyer or their bank might disagree.

I bought my house in 2015 for £106k and completed on my sale yesterday for £140k, which is a £34k uplift in 5 years. So this is more than possible.

MFWannabe

I wonder if OP went to view the Nightingale Drive property today? 🤔

Crashy_Time

Salemicus said:

Crashy_Time said:

Salemicus said:

IMO the house is worth about 80k, that isn`t a prediction it is my opinion.

This might be the stupidest thing I've seen you write, and that's saying something.

There is a narrative in the financial media at the moment that good news on a vaccine is going to (and is) pushing up bond rates and will feed into higher mortgage rates, so IMO a vaccine means pressure on house prices and no vaccine means pressure (big pressure) on house prices.

No, very next sentence, we have a new winner. The perfect distillation of the illogic that is your worldview.

Can you explain why the view on bonds/interest rates in relation to mortgages and vaccine sentiment is stupid?

That's not the hugely stupid bit. The hugely stupid bit is that you think that both a vaccine and no vaccine means lower house prices.

House prices today = P(vaccine)*E(house prices|vaccine) + P(no vaccine)*E(house prices|no vaccine). If you think a vaccine will lower house prices, you must think that no vaccine will raise them, for your beliefs to be logically consistent. That's just the maths of it.

There's an old joke about a physicist explaining the data on a graph, and why the line slopes down. After a while, one of his students points out that he's holding the graph upside down, so the line really slopes up. The professor pauses for a second, then says "Well, in this case, the data is even easier to explain!" So with you.

The way you are thinking about it works if it was just a case of the virus stifling economic activity and causing job losses, then everything springing back to "normal" with a vaccine, but the actual scenario is that the bubble needs super low mortgage rates (and deposits) to keep going and recent vaccine news pushed up inflation expectations which feeds into bond yields and mortgage rates -  do you think rising mortgage rates are good for higher house prices?

Crashy_Time

jls85 said:

Crashy_Time said:

MFWannabe said:

Crashy_Time said:

Salemicus said:

MFWannabe said:

RelievedSheff said:

I'm starting to think you and Dan could be the same person!!

Must be surely? 

No, I doubt it. Crashy is essentially a troll, Dan seems like a genuine but troubled person.

In all seriousness, threads like this are why I hate Crashy. If he wants to waste his time spouting unfalsifiable nonsense about house prices, I don't really care. But when he comes into threads like this, and gives truly terrible advice to a clearly anxious person, he's doing real damage. And that's why his refusal to make specific predictions about his "house price crash" grate so much. He's very happy to imply to Dan that he'd be overpaying by 50% on that house. But if challenged, Crashy won't predict that house prices in that (or any!) area will fall by any particular amount in any particular timeframe.

It's utterly bogus and irresponsible, and I wish he could be banned.

IMO the house is worth about 80k, that isn`t a prediction it is my opinion. There is a narrative in the financial media at the moment that good news on a vaccine is going to (and is) pushing up bond rates and will feed into higher mortgage rates, so IMO a vaccine means pressure on house prices and no vaccine means pressure (big pressure) on house prices. You have to remember also that the economy was in trouble before Covid. What is irresponsible IMO is egging someone on to buy a frankly pretty basic property at inflated prices that they obviously are nowhere near 100% committed to buying. OP follow your own intuition and maybe tune into some more in depth financial news from time to time rather than follow advice on the internet from people who already have large mortgages or may even be multiple property landlords and are obviously worried about the general economic outlook for their VI.

No one is egging on the OP to buy anything; he asked for advice which was given 
we have all said many times it is his choice; like it’s everyones choice of how and where they live; including yourself. 
As for the comment about large mortgages etc. Nope not me and my property has risen by 30k in the 5 years I’ve owned it, I’m really glad I bought when I did tbh. 👍

I find that unlikely in the event of actually trying to sell it now, the headline stats are skewed up by the small number of very expensive properties that sell and reduced transactions meaning that relying on paper gains isn`t really very sensible, and even if you had it valued a buyer or their bank might disagree.

I bought my house in 2015 for £106k and completed on my sale yesterday for £140k, which is a £34k uplift in 5 years. So this is more than possible.

Only helps you though if you are buying a cheaper property now, and costs etc. are going to eat into that, it isn`t pure profit?

MFWannabe

This thread needs to get back to what it was really about or end 😔

RelievedSheff

MFWannabe said:

This thread needs to get back to what it was really about or end 😔

Agreed. Yet another topic ruined by Crashy