Future Diesel Residuals. To buy or not to buy?

Mr_Munneepennee

Hi everyone,

I have an itch that needs to be scratched before it's too late....

My current lease is coming to an end.  I really want to experience owning a big engined, fast diesel (BMW 535d f10 2014-2016).  Obviously there is an ongoing war on diesels right now that is probably going to get worse.  I know uk diesel sales have seen a sharp decline over the past year.  The car i'm looking at complies with the latest euro 6 regs, however who knows when stricter measures may come in.  I don't live anywhere near London exclusion zones or anything (Scotland).

I know a crystal ball would be handy but what are people's thoughts on where the market will be in 3-4 years? Am I foolish to spend 18k when the future diesel market could collapse, or extortionate taxes are enforced or something? Or are we still a long way off from that happening?

Personally right now I don't think the tories really care, there's obviously way too much other stuff that will be going on over the next 3 years plus eu regulations will no longer apply.

I don't want to buy on PCP for the security of being able to hand it back if the market collapses. PCP on a 2nd hand car out of warranty doesn't sit well with me. I will be buying outright.

Very interested to hear any opinions. Thanks in advance.

Greg

Dr_Crypto

I don’t see the market collapsing for a while yet (over 10 years). Electric vehicles aren’t a viable option for many if not most people yet and diesels will still be a good fit for certain people.

Zellah

Don't listen to the doom mongers about diesels. The latest EUR6 diesels are as clean as the latest petrols and of course you get the better fuel economy as well. If you want to buy a modern diesel then go for it. Btw I have a 2020 Audi A6 40 TDI Quattro and coming from a 2018 Audi A4 2.0 TFSI (aka 40 TFSI), the diesel is a far far better engine both for power/torque and for fuel economy.

Flight3287462

Buy a decent fully serviced 535D and keep it for +/-10 years, if you do that then you won't be worrying too much in 10 years and in fact by then residuals could be going up again.  I buy salvage, repair it and then run it until it dies, that way I can pick up younger 2-4 year old cars at a fraction of what they are worth.

daveyjp

As long as you remember an expensive car is always expensive to repair.

Some go further and have the attitude "if I can't afford it new, I can't afford it used".

You need to take your time and find the one that hasn't been abused with lots of history and receipts (if only to give an idea of potential costs) and then spend whatever it needs to keep it in good order.  Once its ten years old you then have a chance of finding someone who will buy it.

L9XSS

Just bought a 19 plate BMW 320d touring Msport Shadow edition. It’s a peach of a motor, 14 months old and 40% of list price due to the newer model launch. I’d say go for it, diesels aren’t dead yet. Not sold on EV vehicles yet, too expensive and the infrastructure isn’t in place at present.

shinytop

Agree with other comments, demand will still be there.  Especially if all you can buy new is a 1 litre 3 cylinder petrol turbo or an EV.  You only have one life, etc....

Mickey666

I wouldn't be surprised to see petrol engines disappear before diesels.  Pretty much every bit of industrial plant and machinery relies on diesel engines, not to mention agricultural machinery and road haulage and electric versions of that lot aren't exactly around the corner. 

Probably the real issue is future government policy deciding to penalise diesel cars (or indeed petrol cars) in some way . . . but that's moving the discussion into complete guesswork territory.

clive0510

I have a peugeot diesel and its as sweet as. no road tax because it has euro 6.1 emmissons, 52mpg around here. 60 on a journey. i can not fault it. i do know how ever that one day someone will say 'all diesel to be scrapped'. but im not worried. it wont happen in my life time. let the youngsters worry about it. 

Mr_Munneepennee

Thanks a lot for the replies, much appreciated. This has reinforced what I was already thinking, also a couple of good points here I hadn't even considered. 
Looking forward to diesel engine ownership and the best of both worlds. 

Apodemus

daveyjp said:

As long as you remember an expensive car is always expensive to repair.

Some go further and have the attitude "if I can't afford it new, I can't afford it used".

Lol, if I applied that logic, I would never have managed to own a car at all!