London house price since 2019?

groovybug

Hello everyone,

I would like to ask what is the general house price trend of London since Jan 2019? What would be a fair price for a property bought in Jan 2019 for £400k?

We have found a flat suitable for our needs ( Zone 3 London). It's on the market for Offer Over £430k, however the vendor only bought it recently in Jan 2019 for £400k. It's been rented out since and no work has be done on the flat. Considering the market since, we came in at £395k and thought it was a serious and fair offer, however got rejected. 

We are not sure how to proceed. On one hand, the property is good price for the area, suitable for us (not our dream home, but with our budget, compromises have to be made) and we understand price is not all about trend; one the other hand we don't want to pay over the market value too much. I have the feeling the vendor might be just testing out if he can benefit from the "mini-boom" post lockdown and not urgent to sell. 

Hope to hear your advice.

missfreshpastures

Apparently still going up slightly until covid 

last six months London averaged falling property 

davidmcn

The current value is whatever similar properties are selling for. I expect that's going to differ depending on the neighbourhood, using whatever the overall average is for London probably won't tell you much (especially if the £400k paid in Jan 2019 wasn't a fair price at the time!).

ChewyyBacca

Even if the fair price, arrived at by doing comparative analysis or statistical and trend analysis, factoring in C-19 and subsequent GDP growth drop, and all other fancy methods; you cannot convince the seller to lower the price. They can expect stars and moons for their property. It an altogether different matter if there is a buyer out there ready to pay what is expected of them.
So, if it is fair mkt price, the property will be sold at 430. if not, it will be sitting there waiting for the buyer. How much are you ready to shell out for the flat- that's the most important question!

hazyjo

Which part of London?

It's how it compares to others now. You have no idea if they got it for a good price. I've knocked lots of a sale before when the one I was buying agreed to a substantial drop.

groovybug

I understand it's about supply and demand, what a buyer is willing to pay. However as buyer, we have to be also guided by valuation, and then decide how much more/less we can afford to pay above that price, isn't that right? It's very hard to compare with recent sale locally, as there are not many and every property is different. 

@hazyjo: this is in Bounds Green/Wood Green area.

AdrianC

groovybug said:

I would like to ask what is the general house price trend of London since Jan 2019?

London house price index... https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/march2020#london-house-prices

What would be a fair price for a property bought in Jan 2019 for £400k?
...
It's on the market for Offer Over £430k

How does it compare to other £430k properties in the area?

How much somebody else paid for it when is completely and utterly irrelevant. Maybe they got a very good deal, maybe they got rinsed.

Only one thing's for sure... It's a different vendor with different expectations now to a year and a half ago.

numbercruncher8

The 'general' trend doesn't really help, because it's made up of lots of different types of properties, and lots of different areas.
Personally I think London is a collection of individual areas rather than one giant one.

Going on last sold price and applying the general trend to arrive at an asking price is pretty much what indexes like Zoopla do, it's quite likely to be inaccurate.

The fact that you were rejected doesn't necessarily mean that you are under market value - perhaps the seller needs a certain amount of money for a certain place - doesn't mean they'll get it but they are entitled to ask for what they want.

If you post the area up most likely there will be someone who lives there and will know better, but from where I am looking, £400k would buy you more today than it would at the start of the year.

missfreshpastures

There seems to be a trend of many moving away from the city and this is why prices falling in London and going up outside in nicer areas

Salemicus

If the property is a good price for the area, that's a good price. It doesn't matter what the vendor paid for it in 2019 - you don't know the circumstances of that sale. By the same token, don't buy a property at a bad price, even if you're getting a massive discount from a previous transaction.

It doesn't matter that you thought your offer was fair. The vendor didn't. You should proceed to either:

• Make a higher offer
• Move on, and look at other properties.

Do you have any notion of how long the flat has been on the market and what other interest there has been? Did you get any indication from the agent as to what price the vendor might accept?

missfreshpastures

Most experts think property will fall next year especially in the cities and especially London