Premium Bonds and your expereince

Bravepants

Despite the pros and cons of PBs it does currently seem to be THE place to put an emergency fund according to some posters. I have been considering it in recent days, if for no other reason than to keep the cash "out of sight, out of mind". But then checking for wins each month doesn't exactly fulfil that requirement!

sweetsand

coyrls said:

sweetsand said:

AnotherJoe said:

sweetsand said:

Again, thank you all, all very interesting and encouraging though i am aware I may get a lot less than the 1% but hoping to get a lot more

Why is it encouraging? For everyone with above average luck, there's someone with below average luck. As the saying goes "that could be you"

Of course, what they got in the past is irrelevant as to what they will get in the future unless you believe that their luck will run into the future in which case, it's more likely you will get below average luck.  So you should be discouraged. 

That's fair enough and you are entitled to that as I am entitled to be encouraged by what has been posted. As you are aware, I am also aware of the risks, rewards and luck and happy these posters took the time and effort to share their experiences and help me decide.

I don't think entitled comes into it.  It is a fact that other people's history of wins will have no effect on your past or future wins.

I stand by what I said earlier and you re entitled to your opinion.

sweetsand

Bravepants said:

Despite the pros and cons of PBs it does currently seem to be THE place to put an emergency fund according to some posters. I have been considering it in recent days, if for no other reason than to keep the cash "out of sight, out of mind". But then checking for wins each month doesn't exactly fulfil that requirement!

What we do with the 40 odd k we have in them for the past few months, we never check but if 25 comes via post, then that is a pleasant surprise. When we take the figure higher before the end of the month, we will keep a closer eye on it.
Thanks

thegentleway

sweetsand said:

coyrls said:

sweetsand said:

AnotherJoe said:

sweetsand said:

Again, thank you all, all very interesting and encouraging though i am aware I may get a lot less than the 1% but hoping to get a lot more

Why is it encouraging? For everyone with above average luck, there's someone with below average luck. As the saying goes "that could be you"

Of course, what they got in the past is irrelevant as to what they will get in the future unless you believe that their luck will run into the future in which case, it's more likely you will get below average luck.  So you should be discouraged. 

That's fair enough and you are entitled to that as I am entitled to be encouraged by what has been posted. As you are aware, I am also aware of the risks, rewards and luck and happy these posters took the time and effort to share their experiences and help me decide.

I don't think entitled comes into it.  It is a fact that other people's history of wins will have no effect on your past or future wins.

I stand by what I said earlier and you re entitled to your opinion.

It's not an opinion... You're entitled to find herd bias/bandwagon effect encouraging (most humans do, myself included) but the simple statiscal fact that historical wins do not affect future draws remains true. It's a very common misconception: you've rolled three 6s in a row so you think you're less likely to roll a fourth 6... In reality the dice has no memory and you are still just as likely (1/6 chance) to roll a 6. Previous rolls don't affect future rolls in the same way previous wins don't affect future wins.
PS: Hope you win!

thegentleway

Sailtheworld said:

The national lottery probably prefer it when portly middle aged couples go public about their wins. 

Doesn't affect the odds of winning one iota but makes the chance of winning seem 'real'. I always find myself drawn to rollover draws - no idea why - my odds of winning are completely unchanged.

Your odds of winning are unchanged but the amount you can win is increased therefore your expected return has increased so it's reasonable for you to be drawn. If the rollovers kept going, there would be a point where you'd be silly not to play!

sweetsand

thegentleway said:

sweetsand said:

coyrls said:

sweetsand said:

AnotherJoe said:

sweetsand said:

Again, thank you all, all very interesting and encouraging though i am aware I may get a lot less than the 1% but hoping to get a lot more

Why is it encouraging? For everyone with above average luck, there's someone with below average luck. As the saying goes "that could be you"

Of course, what they got in the past is irrelevant as to what they will get in the future unless you believe that their luck will run into the future in which case, it's more likely you will get below average luck.  So you should be discouraged. 

That's fair enough and you are entitled to that as I am entitled to be encouraged by what has been posted. As you are aware, I am also aware of the risks, rewards and luck and happy these posters took the time and effort to share their experiences and help me decide.

I don't think entitled comes into it.  It is a fact that other people's history of wins will have no effect on your past or future wins.

I stand by what I said earlier and you re entitled to your opinion.

It's not an opinion... You're entitled to find herd bias/bandwagon effect encouraging (most humans do, myself included) but the simple statiscal fact that historical wins do not affect future draws remains true. It's a very common misconception: you've rolled three 6s in a row so you think you're less likely to roll a fourth 6... In reality the dice has no memory and you are still just as likely (1/6 chance) to roll a 6. Previous rolls don't affect future rolls in the same way previous wins don't affect future wins.
PS: Hope you win!

Sorry, I still disagree and stand by what I said. Thanks for the good luck message and to you too.

thegentleway

sweetsand said:

thegentleway said:

sweetsand said:

coyrls said:

sweetsand said:

AnotherJoe said:

sweetsand said:

Again, thank you all, all very interesting and encouraging though i am aware I may get a lot less than the 1% but hoping to get a lot more

Why is it encouraging? For everyone with above average luck, there's someone with below average luck. As the saying goes "that could be you"

Of course, what they got in the past is irrelevant as to what they will get in the future unless you believe that their luck will run into the future in which case, it's more likely you will get below average luck.  So you should be discouraged. 

That's fair enough and you are entitled to that as I am entitled to be encouraged by what has been posted. As you are aware, I am also aware of the risks, rewards and luck and happy these posters took the time and effort to share their experiences and help me decide.

I don't think entitled comes into it.  It is a fact that other people's history of wins will have no effect on your past or future wins.

I stand by what I said earlier and you re entitled to your opinion.

It's not an opinion... You're entitled to find herd bias/bandwagon effect encouraging (most humans do, myself included) but the simple statiscal fact that historical wins do not affect future draws remains true. It's a very common misconception: you've rolled three 6s in a row so you think you're less likely to roll a fourth 6... In reality the dice has no memory and you are still just as likely (1/6 chance) to roll a 6. Previous rolls don't affect future rolls in the same way previous wins don't affect future wins.
PS: Hope you win!

Sorry, I still disagree and stand by what I said. Thanks for the good luck message and to you too.

You disagree with statistics and think dice have memory!? That's unusual. Just out of interest, what do you calculate the odds of throwing a 6 to be after you've rolled threes 6s already?

sweetsand

thegentleway said:

sweetsand said:

thegentleway said:

sweetsand said:

coyrls said:

sweetsand said:

AnotherJoe said:

sweetsand said:

Again, thank you all, all very interesting and encouraging though i am aware I may get a lot less than the 1% but hoping to get a lot more

Why is it encouraging? For everyone with above average luck, there's someone with below average luck. As the saying goes "that could be you"

Of course, what they got in the past is irrelevant as to what they will get in the future unless you believe that their luck will run into the future in which case, it's more likely you will get below average luck.  So you should be discouraged. 

That's fair enough and you are entitled to that as I am entitled to be encouraged by what has been posted. As you are aware, I am also aware of the risks, rewards and luck and happy these posters took the time and effort to share their experiences and help me decide.

I don't think entitled comes into it.  It is a fact that other people's history of wins will have no effect on your past or future wins.

I stand by what I said earlier and you re entitled to your opinion.

It's not an opinion... You're entitled to find herd bias/bandwagon effect encouraging (most humans do, myself included) but the simple statiscal fact that historical wins do not affect future draws remains true. It's a very common misconception: you've rolled three 6s in a row so you think you're less likely to roll a fourth 6... In reality the dice has no memory and you are still just as likely (1/6 chance) to roll a 6. Previous rolls don't affect future rolls in the same way previous wins don't affect future wins.
PS: Hope you win!

Sorry, I still disagree and stand by what I said. Thanks for the good luck message and to you too.

You disagree with statistics and think dice have memory!? That's unusual. Just out of interest, what do you calculate the odds of throwing a 6 to be after you've rolled threes 6s already?

PB's are not a dice. PB's you get the average payout but you will also get money going into the prize fund where the holder/s take out their money a day or few before the draw and that money has to go to someone. Then you have thouse with 50 pounds or less could wind tens of thousands, so it not a dice it purely luck of the draw and those with more money in PB's on the whole win more smaller prizes from what I can see here and the bigger prizes are just luck with luck weighing towards those with more money in PB's but not always, so it's not a fact but your pinion just like it's mine.

thegentleway

sweetsand said:

thegentleway said:

sweetsand said:

thegentleway said:

sweetsand said:

coyrls said:

sweetsand said:

AnotherJoe said:

sweetsand said:

Again, thank you all, all very interesting and encouraging though i am aware I may get a lot less than the 1% but hoping to get a lot more

Why is it encouraging? For everyone with above average luck, there's someone with below average luck. As the saying goes "that could be you"

Of course, what they got in the past is irrelevant as to what they will get in the future unless you believe that their luck will run into the future in which case, it's more likely you will get below average luck.  So you should be discouraged. 

That's fair enough and you are entitled to that as I am entitled to be encouraged by what has been posted. As you are aware, I am also aware of the risks, rewards and luck and happy these posters took the time and effort to share their experiences and help me decide.

I don't think entitled comes into it.  It is a fact that other people's history of wins will have no effect on your past or future wins.

I stand by what I said earlier and you re entitled to your opinion.

It's not an opinion... You're entitled to find herd bias/bandwagon effect encouraging (most humans do, myself included) but the simple statiscal fact that historical wins do not affect future draws remains true. It's a very common misconception: you've rolled three 6s in a row so you think you're less likely to roll a fourth 6... In reality the dice has no memory and you are still just as likely (1/6 chance) to roll a 6. Previous rolls don't affect future rolls in the same way previous wins don't affect future wins.
PS: Hope you win!

Sorry, I still disagree and stand by what I said. Thanks for the good luck message and to you too.

You disagree with statistics and think dice have memory!? That's unusual. Just out of interest, what do you calculate the odds of throwing a 6 to be after you've rolled threes 6s already?

PB's are not a dice. PB's you get the average payout but you will also get money going into the prize fund where the holder/s take out their money a day or few before the draw and that money has to go to someone. Then you have thouse with 50 pounds or less could wind tens of thousands, so it not a dice it purely luck of the draw and those with more money in PB's on the whole win more smaller prizes from what I can see here and the bigger prizes are just luck with luck weighing towards those with more money in PB's but not always, so it's not a fact but your pinion just like it's mine.

Sorry but I don't understand any of that.
PBs are a prize draw. A machine called ERNIE generates a random number which is matched to elligible bond numbers in order to determine a lucky winner. ERNIE does not have a memory: it doesn't know what numbers came up previously (otherwise it wouldn't be random), it just spits out a number. Just like a dice but with more numbers. Previous winners do not affect future draws, in exactly the same way that previous rolls of a dice do not affect future rolls.

sweetsand

thegentleway said:

sweetsand said:

thegentleway said:

sweetsand said:

thegentleway said:

sweetsand said:

coyrls said:

sweetsand said:

AnotherJoe said:

sweetsand said:

Again, thank you all, all very interesting and encouraging though i am aware I may get a lot less than the 1% but hoping to get a lot more

Why is it encouraging? For everyone with above average luck, there's someone with below average luck. As the saying goes "that could be you"

Of course, what they got in the past is irrelevant as to what they will get in the future unless you believe that their luck will run into the future in which case, it's more likely you will get below average luck.  So you should be discouraged. 

That's fair enough and you are entitled to that as I am entitled to be encouraged by what has been posted. As you are aware, I am also aware of the risks, rewards and luck and happy these posters took the time and effort to share their experiences and help me decide.

I don't think entitled comes into it.  It is a fact that other people's history of wins will have no effect on your past or future wins.

I stand by what I said earlier and you re entitled to your opinion.

It's not an opinion... You're entitled to find herd bias/bandwagon effect encouraging (most humans do, myself included) but the simple statiscal fact that historical wins do not affect future draws remains true. It's a very common misconception: you've rolled three 6s in a row so you think you're less likely to roll a fourth 6... In reality the dice has no memory and you are still just as likely (1/6 chance) to roll a 6. Previous rolls don't affect future rolls in the same way previous wins don't affect future wins.
PS: Hope you win!

Sorry, I still disagree and stand by what I said. Thanks for the good luck message and to you too.

You disagree with statistics and think dice have memory!? That's unusual. Just out of interest, what do you calculate the odds of throwing a 6 to be after you've rolled threes 6s already?

PB's are not a dice. PB's you get the average payout but you will also get money going into the prize fund where the holder/s take out their money a day or few before the draw and that money has to go to someone. Then you have thouse with 50 pounds or less could wind tens of thousands, so it not a dice it purely luck of the draw and those with more money in PB's on the whole win more smaller prizes from what I can see here and the bigger prizes are just luck with luck weighing towards those with more money in PB's but not always, so it's not a fact but your pinion just like it's mine.

Sorry but I don't understand any of that.
PBs are a prize draw. A machine called ERNIE generates a random number which is matched to elligible bond numbers in order to determine a lucky winner. ERNIE does not have a memory: it doesn't know what numbers came up previously (otherwise it wouldn't be random), it just spits out a number. Just like a dice but with more numbers. Previous winners do not affect future draws, in exactly the same way that previous rolls of a dice do not affect future rolls.

TBH, I did not want to sound rude but you lost me a long while ago, I was being polite and trying to answer as best as I can.
I know that whatever you are saying is sincere to you, but what I am saying is sincere to me.
I think we will agree to disagree if that's ok.
I do mean this, I hope you get the mill pound prize for next month and we get the other.