Premium Bonds and your expereince

coyrls

sweetsand said:

thegentleway said:

sweetsand said:

thegentleway said:

sweetsand said:

thegentleway said:

sweetsand said:

coyrls said:

sweetsand said:

AnotherJoe said:

sweetsand said:

Again, thank you all, all very interesting and encouraging though i am aware I may get a lot less than the 1% but hoping to get a lot more

Why is it encouraging? For everyone with above average luck, there's someone with below average luck. As the saying goes "that could be you"

Of course, what they got in the past is irrelevant as to what they will get in the future unless you believe that their luck will run into the future in which case, it's more likely you will get below average luck.  So you should be discouraged. 

That's fair enough and you are entitled to that as I am entitled to be encouraged by what has been posted. As you are aware, I am also aware of the risks, rewards and luck and happy these posters took the time and effort to share their experiences and help me decide.

I don't think entitled comes into it.  It is a fact that other people's history of wins will have no effect on your past or future wins.

I stand by what I said earlier and you re entitled to your opinion.

It's not an opinion... You're entitled to find herd bias/bandwagon effect encouraging (most humans do, myself included) but the simple statiscal fact that historical wins do not affect future draws remains true. It's a very common misconception: you've rolled three 6s in a row so you think you're less likely to roll a fourth 6... In reality the dice has no memory and you are still just as likely (1/6 chance) to roll a 6. Previous rolls don't affect future rolls in the same way previous wins don't affect future wins.
PS: Hope you win!

Sorry, I still disagree and stand by what I said. Thanks for the good luck message and to you too.

You disagree with statistics and think dice have memory!? That's unusual. Just out of interest, what do you calculate the odds of throwing a 6 to be after you've rolled threes 6s already?

PB's are not a dice. PB's you get the average payout but you will also get money going into the prize fund where the holder/s take out their money a day or few before the draw and that money has to go to someone. Then you have thouse with 50 pounds or less could wind tens of thousands, so it not a dice it purely luck of the draw and those with more money in PB's on the whole win more smaller prizes from what I can see here and the bigger prizes are just luck with luck weighing towards those with more money in PB's but not always, so it's not a fact but your pinion just like it's mine.

Sorry but I don't understand any of that.
PBs are a prize draw. A machine called ERNIE generates a random number which is matched to elligible bond numbers in order to determine a lucky winner. ERNIE does not have a memory: it doesn't know what numbers came up previously (otherwise it wouldn't be random), it just spits out a number. Just like a dice but with more numbers. Previous winners do not affect future draws, in exactly the same way that previous rolls of a dice do not affect future rolls.

TBH, I did not want to sound rude but you lost me a long while ago, I was being polite and trying to answer as best as I can.
I know that whatever you are saying is sincere to you, but what I am saying is sincere to me.
I think we will agree to disagree if that's ok.
I do mean this, I hope you get the mill pound prize for next month and we get the other.

Not everything is opinion.  It's like agreeing to disagree about whether the earth is flat or round.  Opinion, entitlement or sincerity doesn’t come into it.  Good luck anyway!

Albermarle

thegentleway said:

sweetsand said:

thegentleway said:

sweetsand said:

coyrls said:

sweetsand said:

AnotherJoe said:

sweetsand said:

Again, thank you all, all very interesting and encouraging though i am aware I may get a lot less than the 1% but hoping to get a lot more

Why is it encouraging? For everyone with above average luck, there's someone with below average luck. As the saying goes "that could be you"

Of course, what they got in the past is irrelevant as to what they will get in the future unless you believe that their luck will run into the future in which case, it's more likely you will get below average luck.  So you should be discouraged. 

That's fair enough and you are entitled to that as I am entitled to be encouraged by what has been posted. As you are aware, I am also aware of the risks, rewards and luck and happy these posters took the time and effort to share their experiences and help me decide.

I don't think entitled comes into it.  It is a fact that other people's history of wins will have no effect on your past or future wins.

I stand by what I said earlier and you re entitled to your opinion.

It's not an opinion... You're entitled to find herd bias/bandwagon effect encouraging (most humans do, myself included) but the simple statiscal fact that historical wins do not affect future draws remains true. It's a very common misconception: you've rolled three 6s in a row so you think you're less likely to roll a fourth 6... In reality the dice has no memory and you are still just as likely (1/6 chance) to roll a 6. Previous rolls don't affect future rolls in the same way previous wins don't affect future wins.
PS: Hope you win!

Sorry, I still disagree and stand by what I said. Thanks for the good luck message and to you too.

You disagree with statistics and think dice have memory!? That's unusual. Just out of interest, what do you calculate the odds of throwing a 6 to be after you've rolled threes 6s already?

You just have to accept that a lot of people can not just accept the logic of what you say ( although it is 100% correct)
The same people tend to believe in ley lines, homeothapy . luck etc

Bravepants

Albermarle said:

thegentleway said:

sweetsand said:

thegentleway said:

sweetsand said:

coyrls said:

sweetsand said:

AnotherJoe said:

sweetsand said:

Again, thank you all, all very interesting and encouraging though i am aware I may get a lot less than the 1% but hoping to get a lot more

Why is it encouraging? For everyone with above average luck, there's someone with below average luck. As the saying goes "that could be you"

Of course, what they got in the past is irrelevant as to what they will get in the future unless you believe that their luck will run into the future in which case, it's more likely you will get below average luck.  So you should be discouraged. 

That's fair enough and you are entitled to that as I am entitled to be encouraged by what has been posted. As you are aware, I am also aware of the risks, rewards and luck and happy these posters took the time and effort to share their experiences and help me decide.

I don't think entitled comes into it.  It is a fact that other people's history of wins will have no effect on your past or future wins.

I stand by what I said earlier and you re entitled to your opinion.

It's not an opinion... You're entitled to find herd bias/bandwagon effect encouraging (most humans do, myself included) but the simple statiscal fact that historical wins do not affect future draws remains true. It's a very common misconception: you've rolled three 6s in a row so you think you're less likely to roll a fourth 6... In reality the dice has no memory and you are still just as likely (1/6 chance) to roll a 6. Previous rolls don't affect future rolls in the same way previous wins don't affect future wins.
PS: Hope you win!

Sorry, I still disagree and stand by what I said. Thanks for the good luck message and to you too.

You disagree with statistics and think dice have memory!? That's unusual. Just out of interest, what do you calculate the odds of throwing a 6 to be after you've rolled threes 6s already?

You just have to accept that a lot of people can not just accept the logic of what you say ( although it is 100% correct)
The same people tend to believe in ley lines, homeothapy . luck etc

According to Bill Bailey, Little Chefs were built on ley lines years ago, and then the roads were built to join them up. Without fail I think of that joke every time someone mentions ley lines.

LABMAN

sweetsand said:

thegentleway said:

sweetsand said:

coyrls said:

sweetsand said:

AnotherJoe said:

sweetsand said:

Again, thank you all, all very interesting and encouraging though i am aware I may get a lot less than the 1% but hoping to get a lot more

Why is it encouraging? For everyone with above average luck, there's someone with below average luck. As the saying goes "that could be you"

Of course, what they got in the past is irrelevant as to what they will get in the future unless you believe that their luck will run into the future in which case, it's more likely you will get below average luck.  So you should be discouraged. 

That's fair enough and you are entitled to that as I am entitled to be encouraged by what has been posted. As you are aware, I am also aware of the risks, rewards and luck and happy these posters took the time and effort to share their experiences and help me decide.

I don't think entitled comes into it.  It is a fact that other people's history of wins will have no effect on your past or future wins.

I stand by what I said earlier and you re entitled to your opinion.

It's not an opinion... You're entitled to find herd bias/bandwagon effect encouraging (most humans do, myself included) but the simple statiscal fact that historical wins do not affect future draws remains true. It's a very common misconception: you've rolled three 6s in a row so you think you're less likely to roll a fourth 6... In reality the dice has no memory and you are still just as likely (1/6 chance) to roll a 6. Previous rolls don't affect future rolls in the same way previous wins don't affect future wins.
PS: Hope you win!

Sorry, I still disagree and stand by what I said. Thanks for the good luck message and to you too.

You are wrong though, as you often are.

redpete

sweetsand said:

Hello
I am aware that P Bonds pay out a percentage in prize funds and ATM its about 1%

Therefore, if you have 10k in their, if all goes to the law of averages you should get  100 pounds in prizes.
However, not everyone waits to the end of the month to take money out or put in so they lose a months chances.
Then you get those that get below average as well as above.

I hope I've not confused you so far

Question - anyone have or knows of anyone with max holding or max x 2 holding ie 100k and they regularly win over the 1k per 12 months ie law of averages in the higher figures favour.
I am aware people with less than 100 have won big prizes.
I'm also aware the 40% taxpayers go for P Bonds as our son does as they pay 40% on anything over 500 in interest.

I'm also aware of the 1% paid on the instant account by NS&!


Many thanks.

The experience of the tiny proportion of PB owners who will reply to this tells you nothing about your chances of winning average, large or zero winnings.  The timing of others selling their PBs in any month will make very close to zero difference to your chance of winning large (or any) prizes; the proportion who might buy or sell just before the draw is tiny compared with the total number of PBs held.  As others have pointed out, this is not a matter of opinion, it's how probability works.

AnotherJoe

sweetsand said:

AnotherJoe said:

sweetsand said:

Again, thank you all, all very interesting and encouraging though i am aware I may get a lot less than the 1% but hoping to get a lot more

Why is it encouraging? For everyone with above average luck, there's someone with below average luck. As the saying goes "that could be you"

Of course, what they got in the past is irrelevant as to what they will get in the future unless you believe that their luck will run into the future in which case, it's more likely you will get below average luck.  So you should be discouraged. 

That's fair enough and you are entitled to that as I am entitled to be encouraged by what has been posted. As you are aware, I am also aware of the risks, rewards and luck and happy these posters took the time and effort to share their experiences and help me decide.

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion but not their own facts". And certainly not their own maths ! 

The fact is that other peoples experiences and certainly the infinitesimal percentage of bond holders here, is irrelevant to what your odds are.
if you had instead asked "if I invest more in PB's do my odds of matching the 1.2% payout increase" you'd have got the answer "pretty much" and then you'd be "entitled" to feel better about putting more in.

Good luck. Genuinely. I hope you do well.

LABMAN

LABMAN said:

sweetsand said:

thegentleway said:

sweetsand said:

coyrls said:

sweetsand said:

AnotherJoe said:

sweetsand said:

Again, thank you all, all very interesting and encouraging though i am aware I may get a lot less than the 1% but hoping to get a lot more

Why is it encouraging? For everyone with above average luck, there's someone with below average luck. As the saying goes "that could be you"

Of course, what they got in the past is irrelevant as to what they will get in the future unless you believe that their luck will run into the future in which case, it's more likely you will get below average luck.  So you should be discouraged. 

That's fair enough and you are entitled to that as I am entitled to be encouraged by what has been posted. As you are aware, I am also aware of the risks, rewards and luck and happy these posters took the time and effort to share their experiences and help me decide.

I don't think entitled comes into it.  It is a fact that other people's history of wins will have no effect on your past or future wins.

I stand by what I said earlier and you re entitled to your opinion.

It's not an opinion... You're entitled to find herd bias/bandwagon effect encouraging (most humans do, myself included) but the simple statiscal fact that historical wins do not affect future draws remains true. It's a very common misconception: you've rolled three 6s in a row so you think you're less likely to roll a fourth 6... In reality the dice has no memory and you are still just as likely (1/6 chance) to roll a 6. Previous rolls don't affect future rolls in the same way previous wins don't affect future wins.
PS: Hope you win!

Sorry, I still disagree and stand by what I said. Thanks for the good luck message and to you too.

You are wrong though, as you often are.

Oh and have you paid the £20 you promised yet?

thegentleway

sweetsand said:

thegentleway said:

sweetsand said:

thegentleway said:

sweetsand said:

thegentleway said:

sweetsand said:

coyrls said:

sweetsand said:

AnotherJoe said:

sweetsand said:

Again, thank you all, all very interesting and encouraging though i am aware I may get a lot less than the 1% but hoping to get a lot more

Why is it encouraging? For everyone with above average luck, there's someone with below average luck. As the saying goes "that could be you"

Of course, what they got in the past is irrelevant as to what they will get in the future unless you believe that their luck will run into the future in which case, it's more likely you will get below average luck.  So you should be discouraged. 

That's fair enough and you are entitled to that as I am entitled to be encouraged by what has been posted. As you are aware, I am also aware of the risks, rewards and luck and happy these posters took the time and effort to share their experiences and help me decide.

I don't think entitled comes into it.  It is a fact that other people's history of wins will have no effect on your past or future wins.

I stand by what I said earlier and you re entitled to your opinion.

It's not an opinion... You're entitled to find herd bias/bandwagon effect encouraging (most humans do, myself included) but the simple statiscal fact that historical wins do not affect future draws remains true. It's a very common misconception: you've rolled three 6s in a row so you think you're less likely to roll a fourth 6... In reality the dice has no memory and you are still just as likely (1/6 chance) to roll a 6. Previous rolls don't affect future rolls in the same way previous wins don't affect future wins.
PS: Hope you win!

Sorry, I still disagree and stand by what I said. Thanks for the good luck message and to you too.

You disagree with statistics and think dice have memory!? That's unusual. Just out of interest, what do you calculate the odds of throwing a 6 to be after you've rolled threes 6s already?

PB's are not a dice. PB's you get the average payout but you will also get money going into the prize fund where the holder/s take out their money a day or few before the draw and that money has to go to someone. Then you have thouse with 50 pounds or less could wind tens of thousands, so it not a dice it purely luck of the draw and those with more money in PB's on the whole win more smaller prizes from what I can see here and the bigger prizes are just luck with luck weighing towards those with more money in PB's but not always, so it's not a fact but your pinion just like it's mine.

Sorry but I don't understand any of that.
PBs are a prize draw. A machine called ERNIE generates a random number which is matched to elligible bond numbers in order to determine a lucky winner. ERNIE does not have a memory: it doesn't know what numbers came up previously (otherwise it wouldn't be random), it just spits out a number. Just like a dice but with more numbers. Previous winners do not affect future draws, in exactly the same way that previous rolls of a dice do not affect future rolls.

TBH, I did not want to sound rude but you lost me a long while ago, I was being polite and trying to answer as best as I can.
I know that whatever you are saying is sincere to you, but what I am saying is sincere to me.
I think we will agree to disagree if that's ok.
I do mean this, I hope you get the mill pound prize for next month and we get the other.

You don't sound rude at all; you sound very nice. It's not rude to ask for clarifications or further explanation if you don't understand/follow something. It's not rude but it's insincere. You are making a stand but then refuse to sincerely discuss the logic behind your position or sincerely answer my question about dice.

thegentleway

Albermarle said:

thegentleway said:

sweetsand said:

thegentleway said:

sweetsand said:

coyrls said:

sweetsand said:

AnotherJoe said:

sweetsand said:

Again, thank you all, all very interesting and encouraging though i am aware I may get a lot less than the 1% but hoping to get a lot more

Why is it encouraging? For everyone with above average luck, there's someone with below average luck. As the saying goes "that could be you"

Of course, what they got in the past is irrelevant as to what they will get in the future unless you believe that their luck will run into the future in which case, it's more likely you will get below average luck.  So you should be discouraged. 

That's fair enough and you are entitled to that as I am entitled to be encouraged by what has been posted. As you are aware, I am also aware of the risks, rewards and luck and happy these posters took the time and effort to share their experiences and help me decide.

I don't think entitled comes into it.  It is a fact that other people's history of wins will have no effect on your past or future wins.

I stand by what I said earlier and you re entitled to your opinion.

It's not an opinion... You're entitled to find herd bias/bandwagon effect encouraging (most humans do, myself included) but the simple statiscal fact that historical wins do not affect future draws remains true. It's a very common misconception: you've rolled three 6s in a row so you think you're less likely to roll a fourth 6... In reality the dice has no memory and you are still just as likely (1/6 chance) to roll a 6. Previous rolls don't affect future rolls in the same way previous wins don't affect future wins.
PS: Hope you win!

Sorry, I still disagree and stand by what I said. Thanks for the good luck message and to you too.

You disagree with statistics and think dice have memory!? That's unusual. Just out of interest, what do you calculate the odds of throwing a 6 to be after you've rolled threes 6s already?

You just have to accept that a lot of people can not just accept the logic of what you say ( although it is 100% correct)
The same people tend to believe in ley lines, homeothapy . luck etc

I’m not sure they can’t accept it; I think they are choosing not to accept it. Most people’s intuition about stats are misleading but barring severe brain impairment/learning difficulties I think human brains can comprehend basic probability. Humans are emotional, not rational. I just find it interesting that we are all rather keen to seem rational (and fair and good). People who believe in ley lines/homeopathy don’t justify their beliefs by saying “I know it’s illogical but I’m irrational so I believe in it”. It seems no-one wants to be irrational (or unfair or bad) yet they dismiss logic/reason (fairness and ethnics) at the drop of hat. However, it’s so important that we feel rational that we make up some completely flawed logic to justify it. I would appreciate it if someone pointed out my flawed logic hence why I made an attempt to explain it. The discussion is over if the OP isn’t willing to discuss the logic/reasoning behind their assertion. Normally, people that make a stand are all but too willing to tell you why. I must admit I find the cognitive dissonance between our innate irrationality and our desire to appear rational interesting. Makes you wonder what topics you do it for yourself: I guess it’s the ones that you get really emotional about!