Ripple Energy wind farm?

TCA

From memory I think they use the latest government forecast.

Exiled_Tyke

TCA said:

From memory I think they use the latest government forecast.

Yes they do. And they admit that the forecasts are lower than current prices.  I"m not judging this. As i previously said who can reasonably predict what will happen.  But it is easy to assume the current high prices will remain but this may not be the case by the time the turbine starts in over a year's time.  So it's probably better to view this opportunity as a green hedge (!) against future prices rather than a great investment opportunity. 

thevilla

TCA said:

Petriix said:

Apparently there's an agreement with the co-investors to pick up any shares not sold when the share offer closes. Hopefully there will be a bit more public interest before the end of the month.

Co-investor could end up with a controlling interest in the SPV.

Section 31 of the offer:

"If the co-op directors are of the view that
another co-investor’s involvement in the
wind farm would materially change the  
proposition for co-op members, then  
members will be notifed and given the  
opportunity to withdraw their shares and
receive their share capital and  
arrangement fee back."

Exiled_Tyke

I note that information on the website (rather than the offer document which I suspect is older) estimates 6.4p per kWh for the first year and an average (I've guessing thereafter but it doesn't state this) of 4.3p per kWh.   I think the latter is on the pessimistic side but I guess they have to be. 

Swan_Valley

Latest Update from Ripple!

Your cheaper, greener electricity generation has begun!

We are extremely proud to confirm that the Graig Fatha turbine is now spinning and generating low cost, green power for you! All the commissioning and testing is now complete and the turbine is exporting to the grid. Your first monthly savings will show on your electricity bills from the end of April. It’s a very proud moment for all our 907 Graig Fatha members.

Swan_Valley

Latest Update from Ripple!

Your cheaper, greener electricity generation has begun!

We are extremely proud to confirm that the Graig Fatha turbine is now spinning and generating low cost, green power for you! All the commissioning and testing is now complete and the turbine is exporting to the grid. Your first monthly savings will show on your electricity bills from the end of April. It’s a very proud moment for all our 907 Graig Fatha members.

QrizB

Exiled_Tyke said:

Verdigris said:

so people could see a few payments from the  first  one

The payment was announced. It was about double the the figure in the prospectus, IIRC.

But do be aware, while nobody knows what's coming Ripple's own forecasts show electricity prices decline sharply in about a year's time.   

Ripple's predictions assume the long-term price reverts to the BEIS forecast withina  couple of years.

With the best will in the world, I can't describe BEIS's forecasts as accurate. Here's a chart I prepared a few months back:

The yellow line is the 2019 forecast, so for dates prior to 2019 it gives historical actual information (in 2019 prices). The 2016 forecast for 2016-18, the 2013 forecast for 2013-18, and 2010 forecast for 2010-19, can be compared to the 2019 actuals.

with the exception of the 2013 forecast, prices have always been higher than the forecast.

Unsurprisingly, none of the forecasts show the current situation where prices exceed 10p/kWh (off the scale of that chart).

imeldamarcos

At risk of stating the obvious, it does not look as though this fundraising is proving as attractive to members of the public as Ripple Energy hoped. I have been checking the Ripple web site regularly and it appears that about 1% of total funding has been received over the past couple of weeks so at this rate it would take about 2 years to complete the remaining 48% of the funding (based on figures at time of writing). This is a shame as I think that this co-operative scheme is an excellent idea and should have generated much more interest in light of rapidly rising electricity prices. Perhaps better marketing is needed as I am sure very few people know about this offer. I believe that far quicker fundraising would occur if the offer was listed on a commercial crowdfunding platform. Unfortunately, the slow fund-raising may require the commercial co-investor, or another co-investor, to take a majority stake and, as previously suggested on this board, this may not be desirable as their commercial interests may be different to our interests as individual co-operative members.

Verdigris

Perhaps better marketing is needed as I am sure very few people know about this offer.

I was thinking about this, yesterday. Now they have E.on on board, with a huge customer base, a marketing/information via E.on might get up a head of steam?

TCA

E.ON aren't really onboard yet. From the Ripple website:

"We are working with E.ON Next, So Energy and Unify Energy in anticipation of them becoming supply partners in the coming months. Your Co-op Energy, powered by Octopus, is already a full supply partner."