Will prices go up or down?

ElephantBoy57

holyrottweiler said:

In reality no one knows. Life goes on I suppose.

I assume no one on this forum would say that they are an expert on the issue. The problem is, many experts give a biased view, it may be the view that thier employers would like them to say, Government experts dont want to talk do the housing market, they are doing their best to keep it going.

The more UK or international money in the system, the more likely prices could increase. The UK is likely to be already in a recession, but the figures haven't been published yet.

COVID19 has stopped people working, its only Government borrowing which is keeping the economy going.

ElephantBoy57

Markneath said:

My guess is prices will fall a bit but i’m still not convinced we will see a crash. 

Interest rates are very low and there is still a big housing shortage. 

Just like the stock market goes through phases, a bull market where confidence is high, the same phases affect the housing market.

Enough people haven't lost confidence yet, but when/if they do, there will be a crash.

NameUnavailable

I've been looking for a property since the new year. I saw a sudden jump in prices post election due to the 'Boris Bounce' and was worried that my funds weren't going to be sufficient. However, even then, most didn't sell and the asking prices were gradually lowered back down to the levels pre election - in most cases.

I've seen a pattern since then of new places coming on the market, still at 'Boris Bounce' prices or even higher. Again, they mostly are being reduced after a month or two, but still remain unsold.

I did agree an offer on a place I liked but the survey threw up quite a few issues and I got cold feet - my job could be in jeopardy and the company is going to relocate, I got nervous borrowing what I would need to do the work with increased commuting costs to consider as well.

I have a couple of other places I have earmarked but having pulled out of the last one I and really inclined to hold off until later in the year or new year to see what happens with the market (and job!). 

In the paper today there are reports of job losses at all sorts of places, Natwest need to save £3bn, ASOS are cutting 500 jobs, Upper Crust have only been able to reopen 10% of their outlets and are consulting on redundancies, 20% of jobs are expected to got at the large hotel chains.....it's not great is it?

I would be amazed if prices don't fall as we head into winter. Of course there may be some areas that buck the trend - usually central London and a few particularly sought after areas around the country.

The problem for someone in my position is the cost of renting in the meantime and also that if you find somewhere you like now, is it worth jumping in knowing that you are most probably paying more than it will be worth next year.

Greatgimp

 is it worth jumping in knowing that you are most probably paying more than it will be worth next year.

'Worth' is only relevant if you intend selling immediately. It's just paper profit or loss until it means something when you cash it in.

Angela_D_3

Greatgimp said:

 is it worth jumping in knowing that you are most probably paying more than it will be worth next year.

'Worth' is only relevant if you intend selling immediately. It's just paper profit or loss until it means something when you cash it in.

See that’s not true.  Lost opportunity has a value,  unless it’s a cash purchase over paying interest on the capital borrowed is unpleasant along with the lack of capital gains over a short to medium term.  You make money when you buy not when you sell 

royalmike

Again thats the big problem with real estate in the UK, if its your main home quality life enjoyment far outweigh the other considerations, obviously it has to be affordable for your circumstances. 
If you were but to let as an investment now is probably not a good time. 

RelievedSheff

ElephantBoy57 said:

holyrottweiler said:

In reality no one knows. Life goes on I suppose.

I assume no one on this forum would say that they are an expert on the issue. The problem is, many experts give a biased view, it may be the view that thier employers would like them to say, Government experts dont want to talk do the housing market, they are doing their best to keep it going.

The more UK or international money in the system, the more likely prices could increase. The UK is likely to be already in a recession, but the figures haven't been published yet.

COVID19 has stopped people working, its only Government borrowing which is keeping the economy going.

Despite what the media would like everyone to believe there were plenty of people, myself included, who have managed to continue working through lock down.

I am as busy as I have ever been at work although working from home. 

NameUnavailable

I kind of agree with these points. Yes it's a home first and foremost but if the money I can spend will potentially buy me a 'better' property later, then it is a loss.

It also matters when you come to move on next time, as the values will be relative.

RelievedSheff

NameUnavailable said:

I kind of agree with these points. Yes it's a home first and foremost but if the money I can spend will potentially buy me a 'better' property later, then it is a loss.

It also matters when you come to move on next time, as the values will be relative.

There in lies the problem. You can't predict at what point you will get the most house for your money. No one can predict the top or bottom of any peaks or troughs in house prices. If they could they would be very rich!

blue_max_3

RelievedSheff said:

There in lies the problem. You can't predict at what point you will get the most house for your money. No one can predict the top or bottom of any peaks or troughs in house prices. If they could they would be very rich!

I believe it's even more granular than that. Most houses will not reach the market. The ones that do, will be priced according to demand for that particular property, in that particular area. Those that tick the box for the majority of people, will always command the highest prices, in any market conditions.
If you find the perfect home for you, the best you can hope for, is that there is less competition.