Suggestions for a speculative punt?

adindas

Relying on index fund you have missed the target

We have seen how many index fund that you might owned have missed the boat and disadvantage you because they buy the share when they are around a long time high or close to long time high. In the past we have seen the case with, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, Google, Tesla, Nio etc.

Another exmaple is Square inc a Fintech company.

In November 2015 when the stock price was around US$ 12 only there were only two institutional investors owned this stock:

https://fintel.io/so/us/sq?d=2015-09-30

Compare it June 2020 there are already 1320 institutions own it but the price is already US$ 128  (e.g. 10x plus).

https://fintel.io/so/us/sq?d=2020-06-30

You might already own if as part of your index fund, but you have missed opportunity of massive profit from buying it when they were at rock bottom, especially for those who are after a speculative punt and a higher risk taker.

Square Inc Stock at Yahoo finance

bowlhead99

adindas said:

Relying on index fund you have missed the target

We have seen how many index fund that you might owned have missed the boat and disadvantage you because they buy the share when they are around a long time high or close to long time high. In the past we have seen the case with, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, Google, Tesla, Nio etc.

Another exmaple is Square inc a Fintech company. 

Sure, you will miss some potential gains if you only buy largecap trackers, but presumably you would not only buy largecap trackers if you think there are benefits of getting smaller companies. 

If investors had waited until Google/Alphabet joined the S&P they would be buying into a multi-billion dollar company but still one that went up in value tenfold since then. Amazon is something that S&P trackers have been buying since it was 0.x% of the index and 1% of the index and 2% of the index all the way until it is 5% of the index now. They have bought at a range of prices and were buying in January at <$2000 just like they are buying now at >$3000.  Microsoft has only been in the Dow for 20 years as the Dow is quite selective on the small number of companies it includes, but it's been in the S&P a lot longer, with huge gains along the way since becoming a large-cap stock, including from dividend income that you don't see in the share price graph.

If you invested in Square Inc five years ago you would have made 10x your money. But you wouldn't know it was going to 10x. If you were buying into payment solutions providers you might have invested into Monitise too, who in 2014 had backing from Visa and plenty of potential at a £1bn valuation below the threshold for the big indexes. Then Visa dropped them in favour of developing its own solution and an 80p share price turned into a 2p share price by 2016/17, eventually saved with a 3p offer to exit which was scant comfort if you had failed to exit at 80p, even you had originally invested on the way up at 15p. So, investing in a fair share of such losers that had potential, in pursuit of big winners that had potential, will take the edge off what gains you make on the investments that turn out to be stars.  You can't just buy up everything you see advertised on Cramer's Mad Money spots (sorry I mean 'analysed'), and be guaranteed to do better than a mix of smallcap and largecap funds . 

coachman12

If this was early last year, I would have recommended SA krugerrands as a good investment for possible big rise in price( I know KRs are always a good investment  but last year's values seemed to indicate an inevitable great bet for growth). I have kept 100 one ounce KRs in Credit Suisse for some years and I was delighted to see the growth this year, which now represents over 60% increase over the lowest 2019 price. I don't think I can now call KrugerRands a "punt" for the immediate future but you never know........and always worth bearing in mind at any time.
Perhaps sometime a thread will appear about Swiss Banks and why I have had to leave Credit Suisse, after years, because of their scandal involving corrupt practices in the Pacific region which gave preferential treatment to Chinese "party" employees after pressure from Beijing.

adindas

bowlhead99 said:

If you invested in Square Inc five years ago you would have made 10x your money. But you wouldn't know it was going to 10x. If you were buying into payment solutions providers you might have invested into Monitise too, who in 2014 had backing from Visa and plenty of potential at a £1bn valuation below the threshold for the big indexes. Then Visa dropped them in favour of developing its own solution and an 80p share price turned into a 2p share price by 2016/17, eventually saved with a 3p offer to exit which was scant comfort if you had failed to exit at 80p, even you had originally invested on the way up at 15p. So, investing in a fair share of such losers that had potential, in pursuit of big winners that had potential, will take the edge off what gains you make on the investments that turn out to be stars.  You can't just buy up everything you see advertised on Cramer's Mad Money spots (sorry I mean 'analysed'), and be guaranteed to do better than a mix of smallcap and largecap funds . 

Well, There is massive difference between Monese and Square Inc.

Monese is just a money apps which later offers current accounts and money transfer services as an alternative to traditional banks and money transfer. There are a lot of companies with the same concept with monese such as loot (went bankrupt), Monzo, Revolut, Starling, Pingit (Barclay) etc. These companies are highly unlikely to become a 10X even (if they go public or already go public). Inever heard they are recommended by highly rated analysts anyway.

A square is different concept as it is creating an ecosystem and provided most of the things needed for small business and might move to Medium Enterprise in teh future. it is not just Square Cash (cash Card), but also eBusiness Platform, Stocks, Crypto currencies, P2P, Payroll, etc and still expanding.

You could also see the track records of people who created square Jack Dorsey (Twitter) and Jim McKelvey (IBM)

Knowing that Square has an innovative concept in money ecosystem, Many analysists have started recommending it since early 2017. Catie wood from ARK invest for instance have started investing in Square since February 2017 when the price was still US$15. It is a very good sign that this company might turn to become multiple 10X+ companies.

eskbanker

adindas said:

bowlhead99 said:

If you invested in Square Inc five years ago you would have made 10x your money. But you wouldn't know it was going to 10x. If you were buying into payment solutions providers you might have invested into Monitise too, who in 2014 had backing from Visa and plenty of potential at a £1bn valuation below the threshold for the big indexes. Then Visa dropped them in favour of developing its own solution and an 80p share price turned into a 2p share price by 2016/17, eventually saved with a 3p offer to exit which was scant comfort if you had failed to exit at 80p, even you had originally invested on the way up at 15p. So, investing in a fair share of such losers that had potential, in pursuit of big winners that had potential, will take the edge off what gains you make on the investments that turn out to be stars.  You can't just buy up everything you see advertised on Cramer's Mad Money spots (sorry I mean 'analysed'), and be guaranteed to do better than a mix of smallcap and largecap funds . 

Well, There is massive difference between Monese and Square Inc.

There is also a massive difference between Monese and Monitise, which is the company bowlhead99 was referring to, so you'll probably need to rewrite all the stuff in your post about the former....

adindas

eskbanker said:

adindas said:

bowlhead99 said:

If you invested in Square Inc five years ago you would have made 10x your money. But you wouldn't know it was going to 10x. If you were buying into payment solutions providers you might have invested into Monitise too, who in 2014 had backing from Visa and plenty of potential at a £1bn valuation below the threshold for the big indexes. Then Visa dropped them in favour of developing its own solution and an 80p share price turned into a 2p share price by 2016/17, eventually saved with a 3p offer to exit which was scant comfort if you had failed to exit at 80p, even you had originally invested on the way up at 15p. So, investing in a fair share of such losers that had potential, in pursuit of big winners that had potential, will take the edge off what gains you make on the investments that turn out to be stars.  You can't just buy up everything you see advertised on Cramer's Mad Money spots (sorry I mean 'analysed'), and be guaranteed to do better than a mix of smallcap and largecap funds . 

Well, There is massive difference between Monese and Square Inc.

There is also a massive difference between Monese and Monitise, which is the company bowlhead99 was referring to, so you'll probably need to rewrite all the stuff in your post about the former....

Sorry just notice that. With all due respect to bowlhead99,  I think the point about the money ecosystem for business, and institutional investors and the people behind them still stand. But TBH  I have not looked the Monetise closely.

bowlhead99

adindas said:

eskbanker said:

adindas said:

bowlhead99 said:

If you invested in Square Inc five years ago you would have made 10x your money. But you wouldn't know it was going to 10x. If you were buying into payment solutions providers you might have invested into Monitise too, who in 2014 had backing from Visa and plenty of potential at a £1bn valuation below the threshold for the big indexes. Then Visa dropped them in favour of developing its own solution and an 80p share price turned into a 2p share price by 2016/17, eventually saved with a 3p offer to exit which was scant comfort if you had failed to exit at 80p, even you had originally invested on the way up at 15p. So, investing in a fair share of such losers that had potential, in pursuit of big winners that had potential, will take the edge off what gains you make on the investments that turn out to be stars.  You can't just buy up everything you see advertised on Cramer's Mad Money spots (sorry I mean 'analysed'), and be guaranteed to do better than a mix of smallcap and largecap funds . 

Well, There is massive difference between Monese and Square Inc.

There is also a massive difference between Monese and Monitise, which is the company bowlhead99 was referring to, so you'll probably need to rewrite all the stuff in your post about the former....

Sorry just notice that. But the point about the money ecosystem for business, and institutional investors and the people behind them still stand.

Right, but the point about institutional investors and big names supporting them and being customers of them not being a reliable route to riches, still stands. Visa Inc and Visa Europe both had strategic stakes in Monetise and the company was in bed with major clients such as RBS, Telefonica etc. Over a decade they went from startup to a billion plus valuation and much of it was after Visa started using them in 2011, believing them highly credible. They were a trailblazer for UK fintech, before the wheels came off and they halved overnight. 

While they were in their growth phase as a listed company, some people compared them unfavourably to Wirecard, the German payments provider that was growing its value even faster. Wirecard's share price went €4 to €40 from 2008-2015. €40 to €190 from 2015-2018. You may have heard that this company, valued at €20bn as recently as April 2020, is barely worth €250m today. Its just under €2 instead of being just under €200.  Someone didn't look hard enough at what was going on under the skin.

Obviously, you would have known to avoid investing in Monetise or Wirecard at the wrong time and invested in Square at the right time, because you saw analysts say so on TV, or a famous investor with a good track record called it right.  However, analysts don't always get it right - below image courtesy of FT/Investors Chronicle:

csgohan4

would airlines be a good punt as they are going to reach their low point and then once a vaccine comes up they will start to ramp again and you may make a tidy profit
As an example the:

International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A.

bowlhead99

csgohan4 said:

would airlines be a good punt as they are going to reach their low point and then once a vaccine comes up they will start to ramp again and you may make a tidy profit

The problem is that all sectors that have been hit hard have either already recovered a bit because people think the initial fears were overdone and they will ultimately survive and prosper (so that the 'quick doubling' opportunity is no longer on the table), or they haven't recovered much because the company has been haemorrhaging money and the market consensus is that recovery will be uncertain or is likely to be long and painful.

I expect that some people looking at the IAG share price in late March or early April thought that they could scoop up a bargain at 200p 'for when this all blows over'. But now, after people have seen planes flying again, restrictions starting to ease, seen what announced actions the company is taking in relation to restructuring, redundancies, loan schemes etc, and read both the Q1 and Q2 results reports and the forward-looking statements contained within; and noted today's official announcement of the almost €3bn capital raising that was signposted last week... they think hmm, 200p wasn't a good price at all, a fair price is more like 170p.

At today's 168p they would be lower than 100th place in the FTSE with a market cap perilously close to automatic exit at the next FTSE100 reshuffle, so it's important that they raise the money by the end of the quarter to bolster the market cap and keep that prestige which helps fundraising.

And the investors coming up with the new capital in September in response to IAG's proposal (which states that demand won't return to 2019 levels until at least 2023) are not going to be piling into it in thinking this is something that will double relatively quickly so that AnotherJoe can use it as part of a series of quick-fire speculative doubles to increase his ISA.

Thrugelmir

csgohan4 said:

would airlines be a good punt as they are going to reach their low point and then once a vaccine comes up they will start to ramp again and you may make a tidy profit
As an example the:

International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A.

Have airlines reached their lowest point yet? 
Difficult to ramp up quickly when you've cut thousands of staff, mothballed planes, cut routes, closed bases etc. To rebuild is a time consuming and costly exercise. 

A share that would respond quickly to news would be akin to the likes of Greggs.