Suggestions for a speculative punt?

AnotherJoe

kinger101 said:

Seems to be a lot of interest in EVs.  I think some people have overlooked the fact that the people who manufacture most cars now are also developing EVs.  Unlikely Toyota and VW will decide to call it a day just because they can't use an internal combustion engine.

Thatsa very old argument that maybe had some validity ten years ago. But time has shown to be untrue.

As can be seen right now, neither are capable of making EVs that match Tesla, and since they dont really believe yet (maybe VW are changing, time will tell) they dont have battery supplies lined up. This bottlenecks not just these companies but overall competition to tesla.

One significant problem VW and Toyota (sinec you mentioned them) is, if they make a really good EV, it will be better than their existing ICE cars.

So, then what happens? Its not  a competition between EVs, its among all cars. And if (say) VW's new ID.3 is superior to the Golf on all metrics including price,  why would anyone buy a Golf (or a Passat  because the ID.3 has same interior space as next model up )? And then the bottom falls out of their balance sheet because they cant make anywhere near the volume of ID.3's to match both of those (or even just Golfs) an custmers wait. Very tricky swapping horses in mid race.

As it is teh ID.3 isnt competitive except at the very bottom trim level to Model Y

Only cars competitive to Tesla at the moment are smaller/cheaper models or hatchbacks from Kia/Hyundai (I have one) and they cant make enough (didnt get enough battery supply lined up)

 

coyrls

I was behind one of these yesterday https://www.renault.co.uk/electric-vehicles/twizy.html never seen one before, certainly cheaper than a Tesla!

Username999

There must be millions of cars parked overnight that have no access to electricity, flats, apartments, terrace houses etc,.
What's the plan for these going forward?
Massive infrastructure needed.
Maybe a punt in a company doing that?
(I can't see under road charging happening any time soon!)   

keyboardworrier

Username999 said:

There must be millions of cars parked overnight that have no access to electricity, flats, apartments, terrace houses etc,.
What's the plan for these going forward?
Massive infrastructure needed.
Maybe a punt in a company doing that?
(I can't see under road charging happening any time soon!)   

Nio have solved this problem with battery swapping technology, I think this makes sense in China due to the popularity of high rise buildings. Tesla tried this once and it seems to have been scrapped in favour of a large supercharging network. It will be interesting to see how the issue gets solved, I suspect converted lamp posts will be the best way forward, but who knows

kinger101

adindas said:

The reason why Apple is having a dip

Apple faces multi-state consumer deception probe

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUBBmBW4KwU

I'm surprised the share price didn't rise.  People who buy Apple products love being ripped off.

coachman12

Yes, I find the dip might be because of the rip-off mentality. An interesting conceptual tour de force.

Thrugelmir

Much hinges on the next product launch. Whenever that might be. 

jjdc

For me, and I've done weeks/months of research / reading, but dyor (I have shares invested in each apart from amigo):
'Safeish long term punt' - AMD, amazing new cpus, finally releasing a  decent GPU, their chips are in next gen consoles, unlikely Nvidia will purchase ARM, taking server market share from intel. I've had a nice 10% rise last week already, expecting it to hit $70 by xmas
'Gamble' - Amigo, if it gets back to 6p, could easily go back to 10p+ on merest whiff of good news (or it could go chebs up, will disappear), main shareholder dumping his shares at 1% a day, august will be an interesting month.
Potential life changer - Avacta, I'm hoping it to at least double over next month or two. Been trading at £1.20 -> £1.40 for last few weeks, been following these and novacyt for months - news expected imminently  

kinger101

AnotherJoe said:

kinger101 said:

Seems to be a lot of interest in EVs.  I think some people have overlooked the fact that the people who manufacture most cars now are also developing EVs.  Unlikely Toyota and VW will decide to call it a day just because they can't use an internal combustion engine.

Thatsa very old argument that maybe had some validity ten years ago. But time has shown to be untrue.

As can be seen right now, neither are capable of making EVs that match Tesla, and since they dont really believe yet (maybe VW are changing, time will tell) they dont have battery supplies lined up. This bottlenecks not just these companies but overall competition to tesla.

One significant problem VW and Toyota (sinec you mentioned them) is, if they make a really good EV, it will be better than their existing ICE cars.

So, then what happens? Its not  a competition between EVs, its among all cars. And if (say) VW's new ID.3 is superior to the Golf on all metrics including price,  why would anyone buy a Golf (or a Passat  because the ID.3 has same interior space as next model up )? And then the bottom falls out of their balance sheet because they cant make anywhere near the volume of ID.3's to match both of those (or even just Golfs) an custmers wait. Very tricky swapping horses in mid race.

As it is teh ID.3 isnt competitive except at the very bottom trim level to Model Y

Only cars competitive to Tesla at the moment are smaller/cheaper models or hatchbacks from Kia/Hyundai (I have one) and they cant make enough (didnt get enough battery supply lined up)

 

The existing car manufactures will make good EVs because one day they won't be able to sell cars with ICEs.  Just like Phillips don't sell tungsten filament lightbulbs and Canon don't sell film cameras.  There was an interim period for photography where CCDs were poorer than film, and traditionalists didn't like the fact choice of film stock wasn't part of the creative process.  So for a time, Canon catered for both.
In the interim period for cars, the old manufacturers will make both ICEs and EVs.  The early adopters will buy the EVs, and people who think they need 400-mile capacity to run down to Tescos will buy the ICE until the very last day it is legal to do so.  The traditional car makers are making deals with battery manufacturers (e.g., Toyota and Panasonic), which will go some way in reducing shortages.  But mineral shortages will impact all manufacturers until some materials scientists come up with a better battery.
The automotive industry in 20 years time won't look very different from today.  If you want to invest in EVs, I'd probably buy LG Chem or SK Innovation.  I wouldn't go for some Chinese company with pretty pictures of trucks that might not ever be made.

Username999

keyboardworrier said:

Username999 said:

There must be millions of cars parked overnight that have no access to electricity, flats, apartments, terrace houses etc,.
What's the plan for these going forward?
Massive infrastructure needed.
Maybe a punt in a company doing that?
(I can't see under road charging happening any time soon!)   

Nio have solved this problem with battery swapping technology, I think this makes sense in China due to the popularity of high rise buildings. Tesla tried this once and it seems to have been scrapped in favour of a large supercharging network. It will be interesting to see how the issue gets solved, I suspect converted lamp posts will be the best way forward, but who knows

Well it may be a non-issue if Henrik Fisker is to be believed. He was paid $800,000 to design a Tesla car, then started his own EV company.
I just heard him say you can put a 500 mile charge into his battery in one minute!!!  
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mq-qjBKjjXI
(6:40 into video)