Does the FIRE 4% rule work in neutral sideways markets?

Prism

DiggerUK said:

bowlhead99 said:

DiggerUK said

But just like all other options to save for retirement it had to be paid for, just as your 'portfolio' had to be paid for. Sorry to provide you with another truism, but if you ain't got the money, then you can have the wildest plans for a comfortable and secure retirement, it's just that it won't happen if you can't buy the gold or any other type of investment. 

Trust me on this, it's the prime law in physics...."Matter can neither be created nor destroyed"

Acknowledging that we will need money to buy the gold or other type of investment because we can't create matter or financial instruments, how did you decide how much money you would need, to provide for the comfortable and secure retirement?  Is the answer really just to save some arbitrary amount of money within the bounds of 'what you can afford' without any rule of thumb for how much needs to be put away, and simply see how much that turns out to be.........

I can't pull out of my pocket any more than I have in it, nobody can. It's impossible to put that truism more simply, Mr. Micawber understood that economic fact of life fully, and so has Digger Mansions.
We didn't set out with any target for retirement other than to put by as much as we could for it. There are wise ways to go down that road, and not so wise ways, Mr. Micawber also believed something would turn up to sort problems out, we always accepted it's our problem to sort out, not fates.

What is in the pot at the end of the day is what's in it. Then you divvy it up, so much for guns, so much for butter..._

Ok so you ended up with an amount you were happy with, I assume at roughly the time you were happy to retire at. You obviously worked and saved hard to do that. However, now at that point how do you work out how much each year you can afford to take out? Have you just split the amount by the number of years you think it should last over and take that each year or do you play it by ear? Do you make any assumptions about the likely growth rate of your pot?

bowlhead99

DiggerUK said:

bowlhead99 said:

DiggerUK said

But just like all other options to save for retirement it had to be paid for, just as your 'portfolio' had to be paid for. Sorry to provide you with another truism, but if you ain't got the money, then you can have the wildest plans for a comfortable and secure retirement, it's just that it won't happen if you can't buy the gold or any other type of investment. 

Trust me on this, it's the prime law in physics...."Matter can neither be created nor destroyed"

Acknowledging that we will need money to buy the gold or other type of investment because we can't create matter or financial instruments, how did you decide how much money you would need, to provide for the comfortable and secure retirement?  Is the answer really just to save some arbitrary amount of money within the bounds of 'what you can afford' without any rule of thumb for how much needs to be put away, and simply see how much that turns out to be.........

I can't pull out of my pocket any more than I have in it, nobody can. It's impossible to put that truism more simply, Mr. Micawber understood that economic fact of life fully, and so has Digger Mansions.
We didn't set out with any target for retirement other than to put by as much as we could for it. There are wise ways to go down that road, and not so wise ways, Mr. Micawber also believed something would turn up to sort problems out, we always accepted it's our problem to sort out, not fates.

What is in the pot at the end of the day is what's in it. 

Right, so the challenge is to ensure you have got in your pocket as much money as you will need to pull out of it over the retirement years. Micawber was an optimist who kept overspending and ended up in debtors prison. The better approach is to not be an optimist and think about how much money will need to go into your pocket to be able to be pulled out when you need it over the last few decades of your life.

The whole 'what is in my pocket or pot is, at the end of the day, whatever is in my pocket or pot' is something that is not at all useful to someone seeking more incisive 'economic facts of life' which could actually be useful to them planning a retirement. I would stand by the comment that 'as much as I can save' is not a very good benchmark because for someone at poverty level it's likely to be around zero and for someone above poverty level the amount they *can* save is dependent on what level of comfort and discretionary expenditure they are willing to forego to reach the goal.

If there is no goal and so they just save whatever they feel like saving (because they 'can' save that, and 'could but don't want to' save more), they may need a relatively frugal or uncomfortable retirement, or may by happy accident have a really nice retirement with spare money that they wished they had been able to spend on themselves or families or friends decades earlier.  So, some forward planning is useful. We can acknowledge that if you put away every discretionary penny throughout your working life because technically you 'can' save it, it may not give you a great blend of pre-and-post retirement lifestyle. This is why people consider what level of income they might like to have in those later years, as part of the process of deciding how much they 'can' save to achieve it.

DiggerUK

Prism said:

DiggerUK said:

bowlhead99 said:

DiggerUK said

But just like all other options to save for retirement it had to be paid for, just as your 'portfolio' had to be paid for. Sorry to provide you with another truism, but if you ain't got the money, then you can have the wildest plans for a comfortable and secure retirement, it's just that it won't happen if you can't buy the gold or any other type of investment. 

Trust me on this, it's the prime law in physics...."Matter can neither be created nor destroyed"

Acknowledging that we will need money to buy the gold or other type of investment because we can't create matter or financial instruments, how did you decide how much money you would need, to provide for the comfortable and secure retirement?  Is the answer really just to save some arbitrary amount of money within the bounds of 'what you can afford' without any rule of thumb for how much needs to be put away, and simply see how much that turns out to be.........

I can't pull out of my pocket any more than I have in it, nobody can. It's impossible to put that truism more simply, Mr. Micawber understood that economic fact of life fully, and so has Digger Mansions.
We didn't set out with any target for retirement other than to put by as much as we could for it. There are wise ways to go down that road, and not so wise ways, Mr. Micawber also believed something would turn up to sort problems out, we always accepted it's our problem to sort out, not fates.

What is in the pot at the end of the day is what's in it. Then you divvy it up, so much for guns, so much for butter..._

Ok so you ended up with an amount you were happy with, I assume at roughly the time you were happy to retire at. You obviously worked and saved hard to do that. However, now at that point how do you work out how much each year you can afford to take out? Have you just split the amount by the number of years you think it should last over and take that each year or do you play it by ear? Do you make any assumptions about the likely growth rate of your pot?

No, we didn't "save hard" we lived a life, raised a family, spent on fripperies now and then and opened a family business, aka Bank of Mum 'n Dad. (Currently not trading)
At this time our gold is doing ridiculously well, even if it drops back to levels a year ago we are quids in.
Elaborate plans about what to do with money are ludicrous, I witness many of the talking heads here  running round like Chicken Littles waffling on and on way too much.

If you want to  know our spending plans it's this simple. Attack the bucket list whilst we are fit enough to travel. We've both decided that it would be preferable to sit in the garden in our bath chairs reminiscing about doing the bucket list, instead of regretting  not spending out on it when we were in rude health.

The only big ticket shockers that would mean we have to sit down and plan things out carefully would be such things as house maintenance, dental bills, renewing a car and the like. As our gold gauge goes down towards zero we'll consider an appropriate response.

We haven't lived our lives to buy gold, we bought gold to live our lives..._

bowlhead99

DiggerUK said:

Elaborate plans about what to do with money are ludicrous, I witness many of the talking heads here  running round like Chicken Littles waffling on and on way too much.

I suppose people coming to a savings and investment discussion forum have more interest in sifting through the waffle to obtain some ideas of what level of savings and investments might be able to support what level of expenditure in retirement, than they do in just reading, "well, I simply saved as I was going along, and it turned out fine, I've got plenty now".

DiggerUK

It matters not a jot wether you have a target or not, either you fail to reach it, reach it, or exceed it. The 'target' is a pointless aim and serves no purpose, you cannot put a cart before a horse..._

bowlhead99

DiggerUK said:

It matters not a jot wether you have a target or not, either you fail to reach it, reach it, or exceed it. The 'target' is a pointless aim and serves no purpose, you cannot put a cart before a horse..._

I suppose that's why no companies ever set targets for output, sales, employee productivity or profits etc, and why football teams don't ever try to 'win' a game by taking a few risks to grab more goals, or try to offer their players a bonus to work harder and end the season 'out of the relegation zone' or 'make it to the last few rounds of the Cup to keep the sponsor happy'.  The results will just be what they will be, just play the game and see what happens.

DiggerUK

Yes, that's exactly what the end of game result will be. 

Stafford Rangers have about as much chance of beating Liverpool at Anfield as I have of beating Usain Bolt in the 100 metres.
Stafford Rangers may get a goal, and I might get a silver in a two man race, but it still wouldn't be enough to do what would be needed i.e., get one more goal against  Liverpool and get the gold. 

Mind you I don't need any more gold, wouldn't say no, but what we ended up with is what we ended up with..._

Prism

DiggerUK said:

Prism said:

DiggerUK said:

bowlhead99 said:

DiggerUK said

But just like all other options to save for retirement it had to be paid for, just as your 'portfolio' had to be paid for. Sorry to provide you with another truism, but if you ain't got the money, then you can have the wildest plans for a comfortable and secure retirement, it's just that it won't happen if you can't buy the gold or any other type of investment. 

Trust me on this, it's the prime law in physics...."Matter can neither be created nor destroyed"

Acknowledging that we will need money to buy the gold or other type of investment because we can't create matter or financial instruments, how did you decide how much money you would need, to provide for the comfortable and secure retirement?  Is the answer really just to save some arbitrary amount of money within the bounds of 'what you can afford' without any rule of thumb for how much needs to be put away, and simply see how much that turns out to be.........

I can't pull out of my pocket any more than I have in it, nobody can. It's impossible to put that truism more simply, Mr. Micawber understood that economic fact of life fully, and so has Digger Mansions.
We didn't set out with any target for retirement other than to put by as much as we could for it. There are wise ways to go down that road, and not so wise ways, Mr. Micawber also believed something would turn up to sort problems out, we always accepted it's our problem to sort out, not fates.

What is in the pot at the end of the day is what's in it. Then you divvy it up, so much for guns, so much for butter..._

Ok so you ended up with an amount you were happy with, I assume at roughly the time you were happy to retire at. You obviously worked and saved hard to do that. However, now at that point how do you work out how much each year you can afford to take out? Have you just split the amount by the number of years you think it should last over and take that each year or do you play it by ear? Do you make any assumptions about the likely growth rate of your pot?

No, we didn't "save hard" we lived a life, raised a family, spent on fripperies now and then and opened a family business, aka Bank of Mum 'n Dad. (Currently not trading)
At this time our gold is doing ridiculously well, even if it drops back to levels a year ago we are quids in.
Elaborate plans about what to do with money are ludicrous, I witness many of the talking heads here  running round like Chicken Littles waffling on and on way too much.

If you want to  know our spending plans it's this simple. Attack the bucket list whilst we are fit enough to travel. We've both decided that it would be preferable to sit in the garden in our bath chairs reminiscing about doing the bucket list, instead of regretting  not spending out on it when we were in rude health.

The only big ticket shockers that would mean we have to sit down and plan things out carefully would be such things as house maintenance, dental bills, renewing a car and the like. As our gold gauge goes down towards zero we'll consider an appropriate response.

We haven't lived our lives to buy gold, we bought gold to live our lives..._

Although I am relatively carefree and casual about planning in general I feel I would need more to go on than having a bucket list to get through and hope that my savings carry me through. You plan does sound simple, and if I could then ideally I would live like that too. But I can't, my bucket list is long and possibly expensive and my retirement is hopefully about the same length as my working life. To have any chance of funding that I need to have a plan and adjust as needed. I would imagine many are in the same boat.

I want to live the life I want too, but at the same time I don't want my life to be dictated by the fortunes of a single type of asset, whether that be cash, equities, bonds or gold. I want to live my life regardless of the performance of any of those things - hence a more complex approach than yours. 

DiggerUK

Prism said:

DiggerUK said:

Prism said:

DiggerUK said:

bowlhead99 said:

DiggerUK said

But just like all other options to save for retirement it had to be paid for, just as your 'portfolio' had to be paid for. Sorry to provide you with another truism, but if you ain't got the money, then you can have the wildest plans for a comfortable and secure retirement, it's just that it won't happen if you can't buy the gold or any other type of investment. 

Trust me on this, it's the prime law in physics...."Matter can neither be created nor destroyed"

Acknowledging that we will need money to buy the gold or other type of investment because we can't create matter or financial instruments, how did you decide how much money you would need, to provide for the comfortable and secure retirement?  Is the answer really just to save some arbitrary amount of money within the bounds of 'what you can afford' without any rule of thumb for how much needs to be put away, and simply see how much that turns out to be.........

I can't pull out of my pocket any more than I have in it, nobody can. It's impossible to put that truism more simply, Mr. Micawber understood that economic fact of life fully, and so has Digger Mansions.
We didn't set out with any target for retirement other than to put by as much as we could for it. There are wise ways to go down that road, and not so wise ways, Mr. Micawber also believed something would turn up to sort problems out, we always accepted it's our problem to sort out, not fates.

What is in the pot at the end of the day is what's in it. Then you divvy it up, so much for guns, so much for butter..._

Ok so you ended up with an amount you were happy with, I assume at roughly the time you were happy to retire at. You obviously worked and saved hard to do that. However, now at that point how do you work out how much each year you can afford to take out? Have you just split the amount by the number of years you think it should last over and take that each year or do you play it by ear? Do you make any assumptions about the likely growth rate of your pot?

No, we didn't "save hard" we lived a life, raised a family, spent on fripperies now and then and opened a family business, aka Bank of Mum 'n Dad. (Currently not trading)
At this time our gold is doing ridiculously well, even if it drops back to levels a year ago we are quids in.
Elaborate plans about what to do with money are ludicrous, I witness many of the talking heads here  running round like Chicken Littles waffling on and on way too much.

If you want to  know our spending plans it's this simple. Attack the bucket list whilst we are fit enough to travel. We've both decided that it would be preferable to sit in the garden in our bath chairs reminiscing about doing the bucket list, instead of regretting  not spending out on it when we were in rude health.

The only big ticket shockers that would mean we have to sit down and plan things out carefully would be such things as house maintenance, dental bills, renewing a car and the like. As our gold gauge goes down towards zero we'll consider an appropriate response.

We haven't lived our lives to buy gold, we bought gold to live our lives..._

...........I want to live the life I want too, but at the same time I don't want my life to be dictated by the fortunes of a single type of asset, whether that be cash, equities, bonds or gold. I want to live my life regardless of the performance of any of those things - hence a more complex approach than yours. 

Trust me, the secret to life is always keep it simple and gold is so very, very simple..._

Prism

DiggerUK said:

Prism said:

DiggerUK said:

Prism said:

DiggerUK said:

bowlhead99 said:

DiggerUK said

But just like all other options to save for retirement it had to be paid for, just as your 'portfolio' had to be paid for. Sorry to provide you with another truism, but if you ain't got the money, then you can have the wildest plans for a comfortable and secure retirement, it's just that it won't happen if you can't buy the gold or any other type of investment. 

Trust me on this, it's the prime law in physics...."Matter can neither be created nor destroyed"

Acknowledging that we will need money to buy the gold or other type of investment because we can't create matter or financial instruments, how did you decide how much money you would need, to provide for the comfortable and secure retirement?  Is the answer really just to save some arbitrary amount of money within the bounds of 'what you can afford' without any rule of thumb for how much needs to be put away, and simply see how much that turns out to be.........

I can't pull out of my pocket any more than I have in it, nobody can. It's impossible to put that truism more simply, Mr. Micawber understood that economic fact of life fully, and so has Digger Mansions.
We didn't set out with any target for retirement other than to put by as much as we could for it. There are wise ways to go down that road, and not so wise ways, Mr. Micawber also believed something would turn up to sort problems out, we always accepted it's our problem to sort out, not fates.

What is in the pot at the end of the day is what's in it. Then you divvy it up, so much for guns, so much for butter..._

Ok so you ended up with an amount you were happy with, I assume at roughly the time you were happy to retire at. You obviously worked and saved hard to do that. However, now at that point how do you work out how much each year you can afford to take out? Have you just split the amount by the number of years you think it should last over and take that each year or do you play it by ear? Do you make any assumptions about the likely growth rate of your pot?

No, we didn't "save hard" we lived a life, raised a family, spent on fripperies now and then and opened a family business, aka Bank of Mum 'n Dad. (Currently not trading)
At this time our gold is doing ridiculously well, even if it drops back to levels a year ago we are quids in.
Elaborate plans about what to do with money are ludicrous, I witness many of the talking heads here  running round like Chicken Littles waffling on and on way too much.

If you want to  know our spending plans it's this simple. Attack the bucket list whilst we are fit enough to travel. We've both decided that it would be preferable to sit in the garden in our bath chairs reminiscing about doing the bucket list, instead of regretting  not spending out on it when we were in rude health.

The only big ticket shockers that would mean we have to sit down and plan things out carefully would be such things as house maintenance, dental bills, renewing a car and the like. As our gold gauge goes down towards zero we'll consider an appropriate response.

We haven't lived our lives to buy gold, we bought gold to live our lives..._

...........I want to live the life I want too, but at the same time I don't want my life to be dictated by the fortunes of a single type of asset, whether that be cash, equities, bonds or gold. I want to live my life regardless of the performance of any of those things - hence a more complex approach than yours. 

Trust me, the secret to life is always keep it simple and gold is so very, very simple..._

Thats why I plan on having an 8.67% allocation to gold at retirement, which increases by a 1.35x factor based upon CPIH for each year... unless there is a crash of course when it changes to a 11.23% allocation and....