Anyone else selling...?

HHarry

mooneysaver said:

No need to be nervous, a lot of people fall for the propaganda of 'buy and hold'. Asset management companies make a lot of money from people holding their investments so it is in their interest to push this narrative. You are aware the best strategy is instead to buy low and sell high and your current gains are evidence that this is indeed the best strategy. Just ensure you stay in the market as long as possible before the next drop to maximise your profits.

That’s brilliant!  I shall stay invested until just before the next drop.  Can you give me 48 hours notice of when that will be so I can get my sell order in.  Ta.

Voyager2002

mooneysaver said:

No need to be nervous, a lot of people fall for the propaganda of 'buy and hold'. Asset management companies make a lot of money from people holding their investments so it is in their interest to push this narrative. You are aware the best strategy is instead to buy low and sell high and your current gains are evidence that this is indeed the best strategy. Just ensure you stay in the market as long as possible before the next drop to maximise your profits.

The industry as a whole makes far more from people trading.

A strategy of 'buy low and sell high' requires far more work than a simple 'buy and hold', since you need some way of valueing stocks. You then have the anxiety of wondering whether your valuation (or the actions that you took based on it) might turn out to have been a mistake.

Anyway, someone who feel uncomfortable and "inclined to sell more funds" is invested above his risk tolerance. I have no idea whether selling now would be more profitable than buying or holding, but if anxiety is ruining your life then now is time to de-risk: perhaps consider a less volatile sector such as water and other infrastructure.

Voyager2002

And to answer the question in the subject line: I sold out USA yesterday, but will be buying Chinese tech stocks later this week.

Swipe

I'll sell my small amount of shares but won't gamble by selling my funds. as I'm afraid it might backfire. I'd rather just buy more when they are cheap.

TBC15

Buy back in now……………….and learn how to sit on your hands.

NedS

123mat123 said:

I liquidated half my holdings when Corona first "happened", after the markets had sunk about 5%, my logic Corona could only be bad news, and nothing positive could come out of it, so at worst I would incur the transaction costs, I wasn;t looking to profit, just reduce losses
I bought back a large chunck of VLS a few weeks later, I didn't hit the high or the low, but made a nice margin. I also bought a large (for me) chunk of SMT, RioTinto and Shell.
SMT and Rio up 30%, Shell down 20%, luckily biggest purchase was SMT.  I'd been after some more SMT for a while, so no hesitation weekly drip buying throughout the drop.
I am not, and don't want to be a trader, but now felt uncomfortable having so much in high risk investments, so today sold SMT and Rio, (hoping for more recovery from Shell...)
I'm inclined to sell more funds, and maybe even buy some UK Gilts, as I can't fathom why the stock market is rising against, it seems every possible logical arguement. 
I am expecting a chorus of the MSE massive saying they will hold at all costs and the market will go up and down as sure as day is day, but I prefer to try to avoid some of the downs, and have a feeling a drop is coming...
Anyone else nervous, or got any views to relieve my nervousness 

I did what you've done last year, with a holding of CTY (which pretty much tracks the FTSE100) and managed to add value buying and selling during the year over a conventional buy and hold strategy (I only traded a few times). I've always found it easier to pick market tops than bottoms. I use the dividend yield as a value indicator when to consider buying/selling (e.g, buy when dividend yield hits 5% and sell when it hits 4%). I think it helps to have some rules in place to guide your decisions rather than just wake up one morning and think this rally has gone on too long for my liking so I'll sell out as I'm getting nervous. If you bought SMT as a recovery play and decided at the outset you would sell (de-risk) after a 30% gain then your investment has achieved it's goal.

I do agree with you that the markets currently look overvalued and I think there will be better buying opportunities within the next 1-2 years, so I wouldn't want to be overweight in equities right now. It seems like a good time to take some profits / re-balance or whatever you want to call it following the recent rally. That said, I doubt you will gain much favour here for your strategy.

george4064

BananaRepublic said:

I’ve stayed invested. I knew back in January that a crash was due but couldn’t see a potential trigger, so I didn’t sell. Anyway I follow a long term investment approach. That said, the markets are surely going to be volatile for a year or more. Holding individual shares is above my risk threshold, good luck if you have the nerve to do it, and accept the outcome, good or bad. I agree that holding cash ain’t a bad idea at the moment. 

My recollection of previous crashes is that the recovery sneaks up on you which is why I will stay invested. 

Pretty much sums up my thoughts. I have been cautiously buying but withholding a fair bit of cash in savings accounts to take advantage of any sudden drops in the future.

I am cautiously buying because I do agree with other posters that stocks look expensive when looking at the ratios and comparables etc. But when you think about how much money the central banks are pumping into the economy, sloshing around corporations and individuals, with savings rates as low as they are, bond yields near or sub-zero, many shops/places closed where people like to spend their money (US saving rate is at 33% currently vs recent average below 10%. Saving rate is the % of money leftover from take home pay after bills/mortgage etc). Investors are buying stocks because no other asset class offer a decent prospective return and often there is literally nothing else to do with your money (no holidays, difficult to eat out or other hobbies where individuals spend) so people just buy stocks.

I think I’m better off sticking with my plan because I don’t see this excess cash/investors buying stocks slowing down anytime soon, there’s definitely a case of ‘FOMO’ (fear of missing out) that is stopping me from selling and holding more cash. I do think a lot of these buyers are naive and will be quick to sell their stocks when they see falls, which is why I think this bull market is built in thin ice but with so much new money reinforcing that layer of ice I don’t see it breaking through and causing big market falls.

coastline

Up to yourself how you play this but as posted the standard way to invest is buy and hold with a regular review of your investments. Posters will be relieved the way the recovery has played out and this will have certainly changed the mood of most replies to threads on the forum. The USA market has been dramatic and never seen a rebound like this in 60 years and more. VWRL the well backed world tracker is only around 5% down this year. I can't imagine many happy investors if the market had slumped even further and now stood 50% and more down. That's when you see if you have your allocations in order. It's not easy and I've been through plenty scary times.
Analysts are forecasting earnings in the USA at 128c and with the SP 500 at 3200 that's a forward PE of 25. Could say very expensive ? Maybe expecting a recovery in next 2 years ? Maybe where else are you going to put your money with bonds at 1% and less. Summer lull coming up ? Then the USA elections. You can only guess. 
https://insight.factset.com/record-high-cuts-to-sp-500-eps-estimates-for-cy-2020-to-date

DairyQueen

OP:
1) What are your objectives?
2) What is your investment timescale?
£) What is your attitude to risk? (apparently more cautious than you thought before recent market volatility).

Unless you know the answers to the above you can't determine your investment strategy. Unless you have a strategy you can't decide your asset allocation let alone research which assets to chose within each asset type.

Individual shares are very high risk.

I think you would benefit from reviewing the above fundamentals before placing any  more trades.

As a point of comparison...
I moved overweight cash in January in order to position our portfolio for drawdown. I have since reviewed the portfolio a few times throughout the pandemic and see no reason to make any adjustments. I have slept very well - confirmation that the risk level is appropriate. In a few months I will rebalance but, right now, I have left well alone. Portfolio has recovered back to January valuation and is still up around 7% on the year.

I expect the markets to be exceptionally volatile over the next year or three. No problem for me as I have no intention of reacting to any short term market movements.

itwasntme001

Not selling.  In fact bought back into stocks in March after having sold quite a bit last year.  Also topped up my pension at the lows - thanks to a 30% "discount" and a 40% tax refund it has certainly proved worthwhile.  All in all this crash has only helped my financial situation.  Have stock exposure into the 7 figures and I'm only in my 30s so am willing to reap the benefits hopefully over the coming decades.