House prices after HS2 development

khanji17

Hi,
We are planning to move house soon and looking in the region close to HS2 station (Marston Green, Birmingham), would like to know, that once its all ready and developed, what kind of impact can it have on the house prices in the local area?

Ithaca

House prices will rise by 8.5% in the first year after HS2 is completed, and between 3.76%-4.94% each year for the next 5 years, apart from year 3 where they will dip by 2.5% unless there is an election that year in which case it will be only 1.8%. That's as long as you are between 500m-1348m from the line, with prices decreasing by a factor of 0.67% for every 331m you are outside that limit until you reach 5996m (plus the original 1348m) at which point they will rise broadly in line with national and local trends.

No-one knows yet, and anyone who says they do is guessing.  You can study the impact of HS1 to give you some idea though.  This table shows the rough price increase of homes near HS1 compared to the national average for England and Wales:

davidmcn

Even the government's current prediction is that it won't be open until 2029 at the earliest. Given the previous record of major infrastructure projects, it seems quite likely you'll be selling the house before "it's all ready and developed". I also wonder what the business case is looking like now that everybody is used to working from home and having online meetings, rather than wanting faster commuting / business travel by rail.

In any event, what will happen to property prices over the next decade is crystal ball-gazing.

khanji17

Makes sense, so at the moment too far ahead in time to take into consideration when moving house 

davidmcn said:

Even the government's current prediction is that it won't be open until 2029 at the earliest. Given the previous record of major infrastructure projects, it seems quite likely you'll be selling the house before "it's all ready and developed". I also wonder what the business case is looking like now that everybody is used to working from home and having online meetings, rather than wanting faster commuting / business travel by rail.

In any event, what will happen to property prices over the next decade is crystal ball-gazing.

Ithaca

You should bear in mind the potential for a short-term (i.e. 3-7 yrs) impact on prices as a result of the construction works.  Depending on how long you are planning to stay in the house that could be a significant factor.  HS2 cuts right through our town (about 12 miles south of Marston Green) so it's a hot topic round here at the moment.  My view is that once the line is built the overall impact will be quite small - no worse than the A46 bypass or the existing train line through town - but during construction there will be many key roads closed off, lots of noise near to the main construction staging depots, disruption by protesters etc.  Last week I had to wait while police cleared 20-30 environmental activists off the main road into Coventry, the A46 is likely to be closed for months while the line is built over it which will create huge traffic challenges, the lanes up by our tennis club are regularly blocked off meaning long detours in some cases.

So you'd need to research the route and construction plans carefully - if you are planning a 20 mins commute that will turn into 50 mins because a key road is closed for six months that may impact your ability to sell (as well as your quality of life).  For Marston Green expect an impact on the M42, A452 and A446, all of which will be closed, re-routed or otherwise affected at certain points during construction.

Sterlingtimes

khanji17 said:

Hi,
We are planning to move house soon and looking in the region close to HS2 station (Marston Green, Birmingham), would like to know, that once its all ready and developed, what kind of impact can it have on the house prices in the local area?

I have just learned how to measure "line of sight" distances on Google Maps. We live in Balsall Common and our house is 1,200 metres from the new track. We are 7,000 metres from the new HS2 Birmingham Interchange Station. Presently, houses around about 500 metres from the track are slow-movers and price impacted. House owners here are looking at this too negatively. I am optimistic that house prices will rise. Marston Green is probably a very good prospect. There are plans for development around Birmingham Airport, the two stations and the NEC https://www.solihull.gov.uk/Portals/0/Planning/LAP/Local%20_Area_Plan_October_2014.pdf