Sold 50% of portfolio at the bottom, want to reinvest but how?

Sheriff_Fatmen

Malthusian said:

Sheriff_Fatmen said:

Nah, wait for the correction, it'll be along shortly (before Christmas) 

Why didn't you warn us about the February crash?

I can only predict corrections, not crashes

EdGasketTheSecond

Prism said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Gold, silver, and related mining stocks are the way to go

Don't forget FTSE 100 daily shorts. How is that going for you by the way?

No good shorting the market; too much liquidity. One leveraged short was up 15% when closed; another much larger unleveraged short closed at -10%. No more shorting until the autumn for me.

2unlimited91

Are you into investing because:

a) you are confident you have an "edge", and so can do better than other investors (by market timing, or other means)?

b) although you aren't confident of that, you are determined to have a go at doing better than other investors, acknowledging that you will be running the risk of doing worse instead?

c) investing will enable you to achieve your aims (e.g. FIRE), even if you don't have any "edge"?

If your answers were (a) no (b) no (c) yes, then stop trying to time the market, and instead choose a portfolio that suits your aims, means, and psychology, and then stick with it. That might be the same portfolio you had before you sold 50%; however, the fact that you didn't stick with it does tend to raise the question of whether it was above your risk tolerance.

Malthusian

Sheriff_Fatmen said:

Malthusian said:

Sheriff_Fatmen said:

Nah, wait for the correction, it'll be along shortly (before Christmas) 

Why didn't you warn us about the February crash?

I can only predict corrections, not crashes

That's like saying you can predict the result of six lottery balls but not five.

Why didn't you warn us about the correction that happened between February and early March?

bartelbe

Never sell in a crash, March was the time to buy not sell. 

OpalMiner11

ChopperST said:

Are you invested above your risk profile?  How do you know you wont react like that again?

Good point - I was influenced on this occasion by a family member and also the media. I've done a finametrica risk assessment and it was pretty bang on for what I'm invested in (80% equities 20% bonds). I guess I've just learnt a lesson to not pay too much attention to the news and remember to hold for the long run.

bowlhead99

Malthusian said:

Sheriff_Fatmen said:

Malthusian said:

Sheriff_Fatmen said:

Nah, wait for the correction, it'll be along shortly (before Christmas) 

Why didn't you warn us about the February crash?

I can only predict corrections, not crashes

That's like saying you can predict the result of six lottery balls but not five.

Why didn't you warn us about the correction that happened between February and early March?

There was also the correction that happened in late March and April, where the market 'corrected' itself to where it wanted to be, which happened to be upwards...

OpalMiner11

2unlimited91 said:

Are you into investing because:

a) you are confident you have an "edge", and so can do better than other investors (by market timing, or other means)?

b) although you aren't confident of that, you are determined to have a go at doing better than other investors, acknowledging that you will be running the risk of doing worse instead?

c) investing will enable you to achieve your aims (e.g. FIRE), even if you don't have any "edge"?

If your answers were (a) no (b) no (c) yes, then stop trying to time the market, and instead choose a portfolio that suits your aims, means, and psychology, and then stick with it. That might be the same portfolio you had before you sold 50%; however, the fact that you didn't stick with it does tend to raise the question of whether it was above your risk tolerance.

Thanks. Those answers are indeed correct. I'd probably feel happier keeping a slightly larger amount in cash so I think that I will do that and reinvest the remainder.

steampowered

As others have said, the markets could go up from here, or they could go down.

Your 15% loss is locked in I'm afraid so you are better off just wearing that. It isn't a big loss over the long term to retirement, and could easily be recovered by further price rises from here.

Sorcerer2018

I would say before you put any more money in the market, you have a good long think about that you are trying to do. Their was no need to sell unless you believed the companies where going bust or the dividends was disappearing for ever. Since you are on the FIRE strategy. I started on the FIRE cause 10 years ago, and next year all being equal, my dividends will overtake my wages for income.