Sold 50% of portfolio at the bottom, want to reinvest but how?

Prism

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

MinuteNoodles said:

OpalMiner11 said:

Hi all,
I made the stupid mistake of selling half of my portfolio in the middle of March (stupid mistake and I hope to not repeat it again!).
The market has since risen 15% and I don't need the money since it was for FIRE. What is the general consensus regarding putting it back?
Should I just lump it back in and wear the 15% hit, DCA slowly over the next months or wait a bit longer to see what happens?

Clearly you didn't learn the lesson in March. Dump it all back in, take the hit. If you leave it chances are you're likely to lose potential growth as the world is starting to come out of lockdown.

No clear sign that globally the Virus is under control. Far from it. The civil unrest that is surfacing isn't going to improve matters either. 

News happens. If someone has invested according to their (real) attitude to risk they can let the news pass them by. There will be more news containing something worrying available tomorrow.

Agreed. Dot.com, the financial crisis and Covid 19 have had almost no effect on my investment history, except for a touch of rebalancing. All three events however have had very obvious effects on my real income and life.

JustAnotherSaver

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Gold, silver, and related mining stocks are the way to go

I read posts first, don’t pay too much attention to the username (usually). 

So as I read down and see a post talking about gold, I think - hang on a sec, I bet that’s that Ed guy. I remember 99.9% of his posts were championing gold a month or so ago. 

If only I could call the lottery as easily. 

Malthusian

Thrugelmir said:

No clear sign that globally the Virus is under control. Far from it. The civil unrest that is surfacing isn't going to improve matters either. 

Nobody said the virus was under control. The point is about economic activity slowly returning to normal.

When people are willing to protest the tragic death of a foreigner on the other side of the world in their thousands while openly flouting the 2m rule, they're ready to start going to the pub again.

I wouldn't agree with MinuteNoodles' central point of "invest now because the market is going to rise as people come out of lockdown". Lockdown could be ended worldwide tomorrow and the markets could still take the 5-6 years it took in 2000 and 2007 for a full recovery. (Note that's 5-6 years measured from the previous peak, not the bottom.) Second waves, persistent low confidence, recessions, future shocks nobody's thought of yet (like nobody thought about Covid in 2019), etc etc.

The more general point "invest now because at some point the market will rise and it's impossible to generate returns by predicting when it will happen" I would agree with.

MaxiRobriguez

Malthusian said:

Thrugelmir said:

No clear sign that globally the Virus is under control. Far from it. The civil unrest that is surfacing isn't going to improve matters either. 

Nobody said the virus was under control. The point is about economic activity slowly returning to normal.

When people are willing to protest the tragic death of a foreigner on the other side of the world in their thousands while openly flouting the 2m rule, they're ready to start going to the pub again.

I wouldn't agree with MinuteNoodles' central point of "invest now because the market is going to rise as people come out of lockdown". Lockdown could be ended worldwide tomorrow and the markets could still take the 5-6 years it took in 2000 and 2007 for a full recovery. (Note that's 5-6 years measured from the previous peak, not the bottom.) Second waves, persistent low confidence, recessions, future shocks nobody's thought of yet (like nobody thought about Covid in 2019), etc etc.

The more general point "invest now because at some point the market will rise and it's impossible to generate returns by predicting when it will happen" I would agree with.

"Some" activity is returning to "some" sense of normality. "Some" people will go back to the pub...

It's far too early to tell impact on businesses. So far the markets are guessing that the recovery will be swift, and/or if not then their central banks and governments will act to protect asset prices. 

Looks like markets are getting ahead of themselves to me, with impact of downside risk far greater than potential of gains from here, which is a change from mid-March where I was more neutral. Not to say markets can't go higher, but I think keeping back some cash, being heavier on defensives or seeking out value stocks which haven't really recovered yet all represent better risk-reward plays than just going and buying an index, especially if it's a US one. 

Thrugelmir

Malthusian said:

Thrugelmir said:

No clear sign that globally the Virus is under control. Far from it. The civil unrest that is surfacing isn't going to improve matters either. 

Nobody said the virus was under control. The point is about economic activity slowly returning to normal.

They'll go hand in hand.  

mark13

Drip it back in over the next few months. If your unsure about stocks, maybe a fund / trust may be better, let the fund manager do the hard work or into a FTSE tracker. Good luck.

Sheriff_Fatmen

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

MinuteNoodles said:

OpalMiner11 said:

Hi all,
I made the stupid mistake of selling half of my portfolio in the middle of March (stupid mistake and I hope to not repeat it again!).
The market has since risen 15% and I don't need the money since it was for FIRE. What is the general consensus regarding putting it back?
Should I just lump it back in and wear the 15% hit, DCA slowly over the next months or wait a bit longer to see what happens?

Clearly you didn't learn the lesson in March. Dump it all back in, take the hit. If you leave it chances are you're likely to lose potential growth as the world is starting to come out of lockdown.

No clear sign that globally the Virus is under control. Far from it. The civil unrest that is surfacing isn't going to improve matters either. 

News happens. If someone has invested according to their (real) attitude to risk they can let the news pass them by. There will be more news containing something worrying available tomorrow.

Is that a bit like saying, when I know the risk of crossing the road, I should be OK with getting hit by a car? 

Malthusian

Thrugelmir said:

Malthusian said:

Thrugelmir said:

No clear sign that globally the Virus is under control. Far from it. The civil unrest that is surfacing isn't going to improve matters either. 

Nobody said the virus was under control. The point is about economic activity slowly returning to normal.

They'll go hand in hand.  

And the Second World War will be over by Christmas. They won't go hand in hand. It will take time for consumers and businesses to regain confidence to spend and invest. (As Maxi rightly points out, the protestors are only an avant-garde minority, about 0.1% of the population if local demos in my area are a guide.) That could take months or it could take years. Nobody knows for sure which is why no-one can consistently time the market.

Malthusian

Sheriff_Fatmen said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

MinuteNoodles said:

OpalMiner11 said:

Hi all,
I made the stupid mistake of selling half of my portfolio in the middle of March (stupid mistake and I hope to not repeat it again!).
The market has since risen 15% and I don't need the money since it was for FIRE. What is the general consensus regarding putting it back?
Should I just lump it back in and wear the 15% hit, DCA slowly over the next months or wait a bit longer to see what happens?

Clearly you didn't learn the lesson in March. Dump it all back in, take the hit. If you leave it chances are you're likely to lose potential growth as the world is starting to come out of lockdown.

No clear sign that globally the Virus is under control. Far from it. The civil unrest that is surfacing isn't going to improve matters either. 

News happens. If someone has invested according to their (real) attitude to risk they can let the news pass them by. There will be more news containing something worrying available tomorrow.

Is that a bit like saying, when I know the risk of crossing the road, I should be OK with getting hit by a car? 

No. It's like saying that if you know the risk of crossing the road, you should cross it if appropriate.
Panicking and cashing in investments is like starting to cross the road, deciding halfway through that it's too scary to cross the road, and therefore coming to a complete halt in the middle of the traffic.
Pick one side or the other but don't change your mind at the worst possible moment.

Thrugelmir

Malthusian said:

Thrugelmir said:

Malthusian said:

Thrugelmir said:

No clear sign that globally the Virus is under control. Far from it. The civil unrest that is surfacing isn't going to improve matters either. 

Nobody said the virus was under control. The point is about economic activity slowly returning to normal.

They'll go hand in hand.  

And the Second World War will be over by Christmas. They won't go hand in hand. It will take time for consumers and businesses to regain confidence to spend and invest. (As Maxi rightly points out, the protestors are only an avant-garde minority, about 0.1% of the population if local demos in my area are a guide.) That could take months or it could take years. Nobody knows for sure which is why no-one can consistently time the market.

Seems we are on different wave lengths. We live in an era of inter connected global economy which is going to contract this year. By how much, who knows. The spread of the virus can only be controlled by people using their common sense. As South Korea has shown. Only takes one super spreader to start a new localised wave. Several thousand people in close proximity is a receipe for reignition. In the UK ,business has from finished it's cull and cost cutting yet. Let alone be in a position to consider expansion.