Buying a new build house that has dropped in value

RelievedSheff

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

[DELETED USER] said:

Lots of people dying means houses freeing up though.

How many extra deaths have there been so far compared to an average year? It's interesting that the crashaholics seem to be experts on so many different topics; the chief scientific advisers to the government have said they won't know until next year, clearly they just need to give [DELETED USER] a call today for all the answers rather than wait until then?

Even if there has been a significant number of extra deaths so far, how many of those will result in "houses freeing up"? Many deaths were in care homes where I suspect the majority did not own their own home. Many deceased will have been living with a partner so again no house freed up there. Many will have rented so no reason those properties will now be put up for sale.

In short, only a small amount (if any) of the 34,000 Covid-19 deaths so far will result in extra properties coming on to the market which is a drop in the ocean to the 1.2 million houses bought and sold every year. Add in RelievedSheff's point that house building has essentially stopped for two months and the overall affect is likely zero if not reduced supply.

The spectacle of someone who supposedly is mortgage free and not moving again trying to convince new buyers to over-pay for basic, poorly constructed in many cases, housing is quite disturbing TBH. Prices are set by ability to pay or demand/availability of credit anyway, so the amount of houses doesn`t matter, but I am not expecting a massive spike in homelessness any time soon due to lack of units.

The spectacle of someone who doesn't own a property and will always live in rented property claiming to be an expert on property prices is equally quite disturbing.

MobileSaver

[DELETED USER] said:

prices are falling fast.

Not round my way they're not.

Is there any verifiable evidence of your claim or is it just wishful thinking?

eidand

[DELETED USER] said:

RelievedSheff said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

New Builds are two a penny ... there will be plenty more,

And yet every official report for years has stated that there's not nearly enough being built to satisfy demand... is there something only you know that the rest of the country doesn't?

And that gap between supply and demand will only get worse this year with the house builders having a two month break.

Lots of people dying means houses freeing up though. At the moment due to people pulling out or holding off there is over-supply, and prices are falling fast.

I am on rightmove and zoopla every day and I am not seeing this fast drop that you're talking about. Granted, some properties on my list did go down a few %, but they've been listed for a while, from Nov last year for example, so hardly surprising.
Other than that I've actually seen some prices go up.
Bottom line, it hasn't been enough time to talk about fast dropping prices. As for over-supply, I am looking at a huge area in south west and there aren't really that many houses up for sale. Yes, a few get added every week, but so far, it does not look good. I would like to see more houses listed so there is more choice. 

abanksee

eidand said:

[DELETED USER] said:

RelievedSheff said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

New Builds are two a penny ... there will be plenty more,

And yet every official report for years has stated that there's not nearly enough being built to satisfy demand... is there something only you know that the rest of the country doesn't?

And that gap between supply and demand will only get worse this year with the house builders having a two month break.

Lots of people dying means houses freeing up though. At the moment due to people pulling out or holding off there is over-supply, and prices are falling fast.

I am on rightmove and zoopla every day and I am not seeing this fast drop that you're talking about. Granted, some properties on my list did go down a few %, but they've been listed for a while, from Nov last year for example, so hardly surprising.
Other than that I've actually seen some prices go up.
Bottom line, it hasn't been enough time to talk about fast dropping prices. As for over-supply, I am looking at a huge area in south west and there aren't really that many houses up for sale. Yes, a few get added every week, but so far, it does not look good. I would like to see more houses listed so there is more choice. 

Asking prices mean absolutely nothing. It's what they eventually sell for, we wont know till july/august what the damage is.

My friend has negotiated a 7% discount.

MobileSaver

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

And yet every official report for years has stated that there's not nearly enough being built to satisfy demand... is there something only you know that the rest of the country doesn't?

Must be right then? Do you actually believe that the public believe that now?

Oh please! Are you that desperate that you are now claiming it is all one big conspiracy theory and that in reality there are more houses being built than the country needs and this has been the case for years?

Do you actually read the articles you link to? From that link it says "supply is beginning to outweigh demand in some areas" and continues that in other areas "stock remains scarce."

Crashy_Time said:

MobileSaver said:

In short, only a small amount (if any) of the 34,000 Covid-19 deaths so far will result in extra properties coming on to the market

trying to convince new buyers to over-pay for basic, poorly constructed in many cases, housing is quite disturbing

Where have I or anyone else for that matter tried to convince new buyers to over-pay for anything?

What I have and will continue to do is point out to new buyers that your strategy has been to keep paying your landlord's mortgage for the last fifteen years instead of your own; they can they make their own judgement on how much weight to give your "in my opinion" posts.

[Deleted User]

MobileSaver said:

[DELETED USER] said:

Lots of people dying means houses freeing up though.

How many extra deaths have there been so far compared to an average year? 

Estimate today is 62,100 extra deaths, the majority of them the elderly or with existing health conditions.

[Deleted User]

RelievedSheff said:

[DELETED USER] said:

RelievedSheff said:

MobileSaver said:

Crashy_Time said:

New Builds are two a penny ... there will be plenty more,

And yet every official report for years has stated that there's not nearly enough being built to satisfy demand... is there something only you know that the rest of the country doesn't?

And that gap between supply and demand will only get worse this year with the house builders having a two month break.

Lots of people dying means houses freeing up though. At the moment due to people pulling out or holding off there is over-supply, and prices are falling fast.

Not everyone who has died has a house to sell though do they?

True but one of the few good things the government did was make people pay for their own care using the value in their homes, preventing them from simply handing them to children who turn them into rental properties.

My brother works for a bank in mortgages, he has good visibility of prices. The bank itself has adjusted its valuations down significantly, which is causing a lot of problems for people buying new builds in particular but old houses too.

MobileSaver

[DELETED USER] said:

My brother works for a bank in mortgages, he has good visibility of prices. The bank itself has adjusted its valuations down significantly, which is causing a lot of problems for people buying new builds in particular but old houses too.

If that were widespread it is surprising there aren't loads more threads than usual on this forum about down valuations, which bank is it?

spoovy

I can't see enough additional deaths happening to shift prices -- lockdowns might return but deaths won't spike high again.  Treatments will improve, etc.

There will be some additional divorces but again not enough I don't think.  I don't see interest rates rising any time soon either, more likely they'll go negative.  Builders will be selling off overstock soon, but there isn't that much of it and it was overvalued anyway and everyone knows it.

I think the only trigger for significant forced sales and therefore price drops is if unemployment across multiple sectors rises by a lot and stays there for a long time, which could hit BTL rentiers and other over-borrowed mortgage holders in large enough numbers.  The government can be relied upon to do everything it can to prevent such market corrections though, so look out for repeated furlough type payments to prop up mortgage holders, capital levies and other such crooked practices.

I think we desperately need a big, 40% ish price drop, but it won't happen. 0 - 20% depending on area/ property type would be my uneducated guess.

MobileSaver

[DELETED USER] said:

Estimate today is 62,100 extra deaths, the majority of them the elderly or with existing health conditions.

That's the point isn't it and why no-one will really know until next year.

While sad it is a simple fact that many of those people will have died at some point this year anyway and so in relation to the already smaller number who still owned their own home, whether they died yesterday from COVID-19 or later in the year from an existing health condition won't make one iota of difference to the 2020 housing stock in the UK.