Why are the markets in the USA and UK going up?

Sailtheworld

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

Sailtheworld said:

Thrugelmir said:

People will believe that the worst is over. That Government intervention across the globe has saved the day. Shares are therefore cheap to buy. When lock down ends in a couple of weeks time. The lights will come back on and normality will return.........

It's not as if some of the grim business news that'll be coming out in future months is going to vindicate the pessimists - it's been well trailed and priced in.

Impossible to price in the unknown. Plenty of cash is sitting on the sidelines that's one certainty though.
My question to you is what shape recession is being priced into the markets? As you seem well informed as to what the future holds. 

My bet is that over the long term equity markets will rise by about 3% ahead of inflation on average each year. 

Anyone can hedge their bets by being under the % rises for markets (with income reinvested)  using 100+ year historical data averages. The short to medium term may well be more challenging and less rewarding. 

The path to the long term is paved with short term events. That 100+ year historical average contained plenty of challenging short term events too. Unless someone has real edge or insight then wholesale changes to an alleged long term portfolio because their view of the long term changes with each news event is likely to be wealth limiting.

Alistair31

FTSE100 just gone 6000+

vitamin_joe

To answer the question in the thread title- I'd call it pathological optimism

IanManc

gays_on_crack said:

……... (This is why some, such as Dominic Cummings (reportedly), would like to just let it rip: to avoid the large short-term economic disruption. Though that is putting it too politely: it is putting profits before people's lives.)

Apparently Dominic Cummings didn't want "to just let it rip":
https://order-order.com/2020/04/29/cummings-pushed-sage-earlier-lockdown/
🙄

newatc

Just as well I don't gamble on the indices. I thought it would be a while (post proven vaccine ) before we saw 6000.

MinuteNoodles

Share prices are based on just one thing, fear, the fear of human investors. It has nothing to do with logic, to do with how much money a company makes, government bailouts or anything like that it's literally based entirely on fear which is why often it displays times where it seems to be completely devoid of any logic.

Thrugelmir

Funny how no one wants to invest into the FTSE 100 until it suddenly rebounds. Soon be out of favour again. 

John464

IanManc said:

gays_on_crack said:

……... (This is why some, such as Dominic Cummings (reportedly), would like to just let it rip: to avoid the large short-term economic disruption. Though that is putting it too politely: it is putting profits before people's lives.)

Apparently Dominic Cummings didn't want "to just let it rip":
https://order-order.com/2020/04/29/cummings-pushed-sage-earlier-lockdown/
🙄

Good link - but I prefer the original version https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-28/top-aide-to-u-k-s-johnson-pushed-scientists-to-back-lockdown without Guido Fawkes spin on it
The allegation I heard (not in the Guardian) was that Cummings originally wanted to 'let it rip', then changed his mind.  So his interference in SAGE (which Downing Street Denied) D could have been AFTER he had changed his mind.  So Guido Fawkes allegation against the Guardian is without foundation.

dunstonh

John464 said:

IanManc said:

gays_on_crack said:

……... (This is why some, such as Dominic Cummings (reportedly), would like to just let it rip: to avoid the large short-term economic disruption. Though that is putting it too politely: it is putting profits before people's lives.)

Apparently Dominic Cummings didn't want "to just let it rip":
https://order-order.com/2020/04/29/cummings-pushed-sage-earlier-lockdown/
🙄

Good link - but I prefer the original version https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-28/top-aide-to-u-k-s-johnson-pushed-scientists-to-back-lockdown without Guido Fawkes spin on it
The allegation I heard (not in the Guardian) was that Cummings originally wanted to 'let it rip', then changed his mind.  So his interference in SAGE (which Downing Street Denied) D could have been AFTER he had changed his mind.  So Guido Fawkes allegation against the Guardian is without foundation.

That can be seen different ways.  It may be that he initially wanted to let it rip but then after hearing the information, he changed his opinion.   Something you would hope any reasonable person in Government would do.

John464

dunstonh said:

John464 said:

IanManc said:

gays_on_crack said:

……... (This is why some, such as Dominic Cummings (reportedly), would like to just let it rip: to avoid the large short-term economic disruption. Though that is putting it too politely: it is putting profits before people's lives.)

Apparently Dominic Cummings didn't want "to just let it rip":
https://order-order.com/2020/04/29/cummings-pushed-sage-earlier-lockdown/
🙄

Good link - but I prefer the original version https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-28/top-aide-to-u-k-s-johnson-pushed-scientists-to-back-lockdown without Guido Fawkes spin on it
The allegation I heard (not in the Guardian) was that Cummings originally wanted to 'let it rip', then changed his mind.  So his interference in SAGE (which Downing Street Denied) D could have been AFTER he had changed his mind.  So Guido Fawkes allegation against the Guardian is without foundation.

That can be seen different ways.  It may be that he initially wanted to let it rip but then after hearing the information, he changed his opinion.   Something you would hope any reasonable person in Government would do.

......or a spin doctor whose only concern was the political damage?
So yes it can be seen in different ways, especially when we know so little as its shrouded in secrecy