Easing Lockdown For Housing Market - Timeline Discussion

shinytop

natasha22 said:

shinytop said:

Anyway, the sorts of activities done during a house purchase/rental and move are no more likely to spread the virus that, say, going to a supermarket.  Since the numbers moving house are tiny compared to those going shopping, I think the relevant laws and advice could be changed easily and safely to allow (1) existing, paused transactions to proceed and (2) new activity to commence.  

The thing is that going to the supermarket is risky, its just that they cant close supermarkets. I see lots of people saying well i should be able to sunbath, go to the zoo etc as its less risky than shopping.  Its a poor comparison to make as theres nothing magical about a supermarket that makes it safe and thats why its still open, its simply that its an essential activity in the same way people are still allowed to go to a+e etc. 

I think you're missing the point.  I know going to the supermarket is risky but there are millions of people doing it (and by the way I think the rules around going to supermarkets in this country are incredibly lax and that they should be more restrictive).  Adding on a few thousand (or whatever) activities per day of a broadly similar risk (e.g. house purchasing/renting) increases the overall risk but not by much. It also re-starts an important part of the economy, unlike sunbathing or going to the zoo.  Like it or not, this trade-off between increasing the risk (and therefore the number cases/deaths) and allowing the economy to re-start is going to be a constant theme going forward.  

Thrugelmir

FrugalCat said:

shinytop said:

Thrugelmir said:

shinytop said:

Anyway, the sorts of activities done during a house purchase/rental and move are no more likely to spread the virus that, say, going to a supermarket.  Since the numbers moving house are tiny compared to those going shopping,

Large open plan offices aren't laid out for social distancing. Nor are call centres. To be cost effective in recent years everything has been built on scale of operation. 

The same comment could be applied to supermarkets.

You'd have thought supermarkets are benefiting from economic slowdown, where a good portion of the population can shop any time, any day of the week. 
I'd be interested to see how the current shopping pattern compares to peak times 8 weeks ago.

People are generally doing larger fewer shops. Less ad-hoc purchasing. Popped into Aldi yesterday for a couple of items. Never the quickest store to get served in at the best of times. Don't seem to have adapted their working practices at all. 

Ozzuk

Crashy_Time said:

They first need to fix the economy, or very few people will be buying, that is why it isn`t a priority for them, in fact they probably like the idea of "social distancing" being blamed for lack of activity.

Some reports are suggesting EAs will be allowed back to work pretty quickly in an attempt to keep the housing market active so it could indeed be a priority.  I talked to a surveyor yesterday, he was allowed to survey empty houses.  
I'm happy to share my own positive experience (I know one case doesn't make a standard), I received an offer on my property (Wales) last Friday which I accepted (same price as pre-lockdown and 25% up on my purchase price four years ago).  I then had an offer accepted on a house on Monday.  My AIP was done yesterday, I was offered both 75% and 80% LTV mortgages from many lenders - I did not ask about lower LTVs.  The current rates mean I've been able to secure a 5 year fixed mortgage at 1.5% - it is highly unlikely to get lower.  Both EAs 'admin' staff are working and things should progress - albeit slowly of course (and a lot can go wrong).  I have no concerns buying, its a long term move.

So there is hope!

Just to add - my neighbour is also selling - he has 15 people waiting to view as soon as lockdown ends.

tommyedinburgh

Ozzuk said:

Crashy_Time said:

They first need to fix the economy, or very few people will be buying, that is why it isn`t a priority for them, in fact they probably like the idea of "social distancing" being blamed for lack of activity.

Some reports are suggesting EAs will be allowed back to work pretty quickly in an attempt to keep the housing market active so it could indeed be a priority.  I talked to a surveyor yesterday, he was allowed to survey empty houses.  
I'm happy to share my own positive experience (I know one case doesn't make a standard), I received an offer on my property (Wales) last Friday which I accepted (same price as pre-lockdown and 25% up on my purchase price four years ago).  I then had an offer accepted on a house on Monday.  My AIP was done yesterday, I was offered both 75% and 80% LTV mortgages from many lenders - I did not ask about lower LTVs.  The current rates mean I've been able to secure a 5 year fixed mortgage at 1.5% - it is highly unlikely to get lower.  Both EAs 'admin' staff are working and things should progress - albeit slowly of course (and a lot can go wrong).  I have no concerns buying, its a long term move.

So there is hope!

Just to add - my neighbour is also selling - he has 15 people waiting to view as soon as lockdown ends.

Congratulation on having your offer accepted. 

We’ve made an offer this morning so hoping to share your luck later today! 

davidmcn

shinytop said:

natasha22 said:

shinytop said:

Anyway, the sorts of activities done during a house purchase/rental and move are no more likely to spread the virus that, say, going to a supermarket.  Since the numbers moving house are tiny compared to those going shopping, I think the relevant laws and advice could be changed easily and safely to allow (1) existing, paused transactions to proceed and (2) new activity to commence.  

The thing is that going to the supermarket is risky, its just that they cant close supermarkets. I see lots of people saying well i should be able to sunbath, go to the zoo etc as its less risky than shopping.  Its a poor comparison to make as theres nothing magical about a supermarket that makes it safe and thats why its still open, its simply that its an essential activity in the same way people are still allowed to go to a+e etc.

I know going to the supermarket is risky but there are millions of people doing it (and by the way I think the rules around going to supermarkets in this country are incredibly lax and that they should be more restrictive).  Adding on a few thousand (or whatever) activities per day of a broadly similar risk (e.g. house purchasing/renting) increases the overall risk but not by much.

In my case, it would be spending the whole day in an open plan office with c. 70 other people, which I think is a significantly greater risk than spending the whole day at home by myself, or even than making brief visits to shops twice a week or so (which I'd still be doing anyway)

Crashy_Time

Steve_KCS said:

Crashy_Time said:

Steve_KCS said:

You'd imagine that the government and particularly the Chancellor will be looking at this very closely and it should be a fairly straight forward business model to operate under social distancing. 

For example, home reports and photographers to get properties on the market can be done by an individual with social distancing. 

Similarly, house viewing can also be conducted under social distancing. 

Valuations will be unlocked and the majority of Mortgage applications are Digital now. 

Do we see this as one of the easier industries to unlock post easing of the restrictions when that may be? 

They first need to fix the economy, or very few people will be buying, that is why it isn`t a priority for them, in fact they probably like the idea of "social distancing" being blamed for lack of activity.

It's almost as if your username is wishing for a financial crisis. 

We are in a financial crisis, no need to wish for anything.

Crashy_Time

Comms69 said:

Crashy_Time said:

Comms69 said:

davidmcn said:

The only current legal problem is that going to do a viewing isn't currently deemed to be a legitimate excuse for leaving the house, and moving house is only deemed to be so "where reasonably necessary" which might need some widening out (not sure how many house moves are more frivolous affairs).

All the professionals involved can get on with their work legally, if surveys aren't being done that's because the surveyors are (I think) following current RICS guidance rather than the law.

There is also disruption at other parties involved in the process e.g. Registers of Scotland have largely been shut down for several weeks.

Indeed, it's on pause primarily because of buyers and vendors, not the middle people.

I cant see there being any issues with the market opening (and growing rapidly)

Really? None at all?

Think you've misunderstood my point. I mean sellers and buyers will both be back, in large numbers after this is over.

Sellers probably, not so sure about demand from buyers TBH. But to get back on topic the news from Germany says it may be later rather than sooner that things start up again, buying and selling property isn`t a priority in a medical emergency.

Ozzuk

Should be interesting next week to hear what Boris's plans are, I think getting the housing market moving will actually be a priority - if managed well it is low risk with high return.  What I'd really like is stamp duty to be relaxed but sadly I think the tax income will be needed too much.

shinytop

davidmcn said:

shinytop said:

natasha22 said:

shinytop said:

Anyway, the sorts of activities done during a house purchase/rental and move are no more likely to spread the virus that, say, going to a supermarket.  Since the numbers moving house are tiny compared to those going shopping, I think the relevant laws and advice could be changed easily and safely to allow (1) existing, paused transactions to proceed and (2) new activity to commence.  

The thing is that going to the supermarket is risky, its just that they cant close supermarkets. I see lots of people saying well i should be able to sunbath, go to the zoo etc as its less risky than shopping.  Its a poor comparison to make as theres nothing magical about a supermarket that makes it safe and thats why its still open, its simply that its an essential activity in the same way people are still allowed to go to a+e etc.

I know going to the supermarket is risky but there are millions of people doing it (and by the way I think the rules around going to supermarkets in this country are incredibly lax and that they should be more restrictive).  Adding on a few thousand (or whatever) activities per day of a broadly similar risk (e.g. house purchasing/renting) increases the overall risk but not by much.

In my case, it would be spending the whole day in an open plan office with c. 70 other people, which I think is a significantly greater risk than spending the whole day at home by myself, or even than making brief visits to shops twice a week or so (which I'd still be doing anyway)

I was thinking more of the unavoidable social contact in the house buying/renting process - the surveys, viewings and the actual moving.  I know it's no consolation to individuals (and I understand your concerns about returning to work) but ending the lockdown is (apart from vulnerable groups) less about  risk to individuals and more about the national effect.  Going to work is a much greater risk for you and your colleagues personally but on a national scale it's tiny.   As I said, there are difficult decisions to be made. 

[Deleted User]

Falling house prices are a good thing. We shouldn't be looking to do anything that slows that down, we should let them crash as far as possible.

Housing is massively over-valued in the UK. New builds in particular. A big correction is long overdue and if anything good comes from this crisis a big cut in house prices could be it.