Who's going to do well?

kinger101

Thrugelmir said:

kinger101 said:

coachman12 said:

kinger101 said:

coachman12 said:

steampowered said:

I don't think it is Ocado's IT system that has failed. It is not surprising that an online retailer is struggling to meet demand, particularly Ocado which is probably the most well known name in that space.

It is unrealistic to expect a retailer in a low margin sector like groceries to be carrying lots of spare capacity in its supply chain or distribution network. Ocado are doing their best to meet the extreme level of demand by prioritising the vulnerable list, prioritising existing customers and releasing delivery slots in batches. Particularly in Ocado's case given that they are in the process of building new warehouses that aren't yet operational. It isn't surprising that their network and their customer services team are overwhelmed.

As a customer of Ocado, I think they are absolutely fantastic. Great website; great product selection; very rarely would anything ever get substituted (a big plus of ordering through a dedicated online retailer rather than the shambles of ordering from an inefficient system such as Tesco or Asda, who send a member of staff round the shop picking things off aisles if they can find them); drivers always pleasant; deliveries always on time. I think a lot of people who previously went to the shops out of habit will start changing their habits as a result of Covid-19.

Steampowered is another of Ocado's many many fans, like I am. Sorry to hear some folk, especially in vulnerable category are having trouble getting an Ocado slot.
As I have said, I have weekly slots up till end of April, as a loyal "pass" holder. But I know from emails from Ocado that they have slots being continually released for GOV vulnerable list, so I do hope those concerned manage to grab some----please try at many different times of the day.
As for the rest of Ocado -----one of the very best companies on the market, in any sector-------I think
steampowered's very clear posting says it all really. And for those that keep sniping at the best, methinks protesting a trifle too much ( could it be they missed out on buying shares when they were  a fraction of today's price???). I can only say that I could already have bought a nice house on the increase in my original investment in Ocado shares. And yes, I do think the stockmarket knows of the M&S deal. Ocado price is up again today by over 5% in one day. 

I used them for online shopping before this.  I liked they fact they picked direct from the warehouse rather then having some staff members selecting items with short shelf-lives like many supermarkets seemed to do.  And I like the fact the sold Waitrose stuff. Their move to M&S would have stopped my shopping there anyway.  Horse for courses, but I find M&S mainly excel in overly processed and overly packaged food.  Though their wines are mostly pretty decent. And them almond biscuits too.

But there's no point in me attempting to get a delivery.  Do you think I hadn't already tried accessing the site at many different times as day?  The fact is they don't seem to be updating the vulnerable list, and it's not possible to speak to a human to get this resolved.  

I don't buy shares in individual companies but if I did, there's no reason for me to invent grievances against all the companies that had done well but that I'd not invested in. All I'm saying is "there very best" seems very poor compared to the experience I had with another retailer.

Fair 'nuff, kinger----we're all here for our opinions and I respect yours more than some I have come across, particularly those who know so little of the stock market ( who I have offered to help with some "start-up" advice via Private Mail if they write to me ). 
As a footnote, as today's price is now up  7.5 % over yesterday's, I quote from the much respected money managers , Bernstein :  " Shares in online-only grocer Ocado Group Plc could rise tenfold by 2030, according to analysts at Bernstein. As the supermarket prepares for a new joint venture with Marks & Spencer in September, analysts have suggested Ocado could see its stock price rise tenfold in the next decade."

I'm skeptical the M&S tie up will make Ocado profitable.  Online groceries generally isn't, it it hasn't been for Ocado in the past.  If it has anything, it will be using its robotic warehousing systems on goods with a higher margin. 

There's a Belgian company (whose name escapes me) that operates globally. Designs and builds automated warehousing for the pharmaceutical industry. 

If you mean Ocodo Technologies, the deals are not with pharmaceutical companies.  These are mostly other grocery retailers.  Perhaps you can clarify once you've remembered the name.

bowlhead99

Thrugelmir said:

coachman12 said:

Sorry, kinger----since my posting to you shares have fallen back to 5.7 % on the day. I hate those last minute figures as the Exchange closes 

That's when much of the daily trade gets undertaken. Particularly bulk sales and purchases. 

It's when much of the daily trade gets reported (because large trades can be reported with a delay), but the trade has often already been undertaken, earlier in the day. 

The bid-offer for normal market size at market close at half past four was 1476-1478p; the closing auction for the day in the five minutes following was a touch higher, at 1484.5p in which £11.8m of shares changed hands, and is the official closing price for the day. Which is over 8% rise for the day.   A little later, about 20 minutes after the market was closed, an off-book trade of £480k at 1446p was added into the reporting system. Google Finance will pick that up and report it as the latest price and say that the price only rose 5.7% for the day, but the closing auction price (uncrossing trade) according to the stock exchange itself and others such as Yahoo was really 1484.5p, for a rise of >8%.

kinger101

coachman12 said:

Thrugelmir said:

coachman12 said:

Sorry, kinger----since my posting to you shares have fallen back to 5.7 % on the day. I hate those last minute figures as the Exchange closes 

That's when much of the daily trade gets undertaken. Particularly bulk sales and purchases. 

Thank you, although of course most of us know that----but thx for stating it for the less-informed.
Ocado has had a good day nevertheless. In fact it has a spectacular history and a stellar future by most accounts. The off-tangent reference to plastiwhatsit does not really have any relevance to the discussion about Ocado ; and , once again, I offer to provide help via private messaging for those who think plastiwhatsit has any relevance to Ocado, and indeed to help them with advice on starting to dip their feet into the share market.
Looking forward to kinger's thoughts on the musing in my last posting aimed at him.

The plastic thing was a tongue-in-cheek reference to M&S notoriety in its treatment of the cauliflower.  My concern with Ocado is that it's mainly warehousing & logistics, albeit technically advanced.  As grocery retail, which is the bulk of their work so far, is not regarded as profitable, hard to see where any profits will come from at present.   Doubt there's enough in the IP portfolio for a competitor to be interested..  IP is like an onion.  You need lots of tight layers. 

bowlhead99

kinger101 said:
The plastic thing was a tongue-in-cheek reference to M&S notoriety in its treatment of the cauliflower.   

Ha, jokes aren't quite as good when you have to explain them    but now I get the context, your post was actually one of the better ones on the thread!

My concern with Ocado is that it's mainly warehousing & logistics, albeit technically advanced.  As grocery retail, which is the bulk of their work so far, is not regarded as profitable, hard to see where any profits will come from at present.   Doubt there's enough in the IP portfolio for a competitor to be interested..  IP is like an onion.  You need lots of tight layers.

They should make money on their M&S JV but really the profits should eventually be driven by the Solutions part of the business doing tie-ups with large chains all over the world. The IP seems pretty good and the 'customer fulfilment centre' model with automatic picking and packing and centralised organisation and routing and reduced wastage, should help their clients improve margin, while getting the benefit of ongoing improvements that Ocado make to the platform. So each signup gets them money on appointment, money for an implementation phase and ongoing capacity-based income. And while their overseas solutions revenues are tiny ( <£1m for last year, <£10m expected for this one), they will get to practice their implementations with the current signups to roll out very credibly with future deals.

You are right that they are not the only people in the 'automating a warehouse and delivering stuff' space, and even if the IP for what they do is solid, there are other ways to accomplish the same thing without infringing a patent, so you're right that another pure-play online grocery competitor (if there is one) isn't likely to buy them out right now.   But a first-mover advantage is something that can be monetised because their overseas partners who want well-designed CFCs (whether Kroger in US or Casino in France) don't want to have to build something from the ground up by trial and error. There are some big revenues available if they can prove how well it scales.

I have some Ocado in my pension too, though like Username999, probably not enough of them to buy coachman12 a house. I'm not clear if coachman12's a bit of a fantasist or just someone who likes a bit of harmless fun on internet forums to pass the time.

coachman12

bowlhead99 said
 I'm not clear if coachman12's a bit of a fantasist or just someone who likes a bit of harmless fun on internet forums to pass the time.

Neither ( do  you want to see my share certificates ?).  And you ????

Username999

coachman12 said:

Neither ( do  you want to see my share certificates ?).  And you ????

Yes please.

kinger101

bowlhead99 said:

 I'm not clear if coachman12's a bit of a fantasist or just someone who likes a bit of harmless fun on internet forums to pass the time.

I think their first post on this forum, on the 9th of February this year, might answer your question.
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6100814/ocado-are-imho-the-very-best-online-food-etc-supermarket#latest
"I would like shares in the company because when it really "takes off", it will soar."

coachman12

kinger101 said:

bowlhead99 said:

 I'm not clear if coachman12's a bit of a fantasist or just someone who likes a bit of harmless fun on internet forums to pass the time.

I think their first post on this forum, on the 9th of February this year, might answer your question.
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6100814/ocado-are-imho-the-very-best-online-food-etc-supermarket#latest
"I would like shares in the company because when it really "takes off", it will soar."

The posting in question was merely whilst I was keeping my financial interest in Ocado private , but it later became clear when facing so many posters critical of Ocado , that I had to support the company by revealing the depth of my knowledge about it and thus disclose otherwise personal information that I would not normally feel appropriate on this or any other Forum.
I feel I have now defended this marvellous company which has been so lucrative as far as I am concerned personally that I have done my best to "fight their corner" , even going so far as revealing my personal interest and shareholding magnitude. I can do no more than report what I have personally gained from Ocado, both in terms of their food delivery service to me and their contribution to my personal finances in terms of shares. 
The cliques may feel free to knock Ocado all they want------or praise them as some independent posters have done already, but I have done all I can to stand up for one of Britain's best companies.
Please feel free to make up your own minds;  and if the personal facts I have eventually shared are not sufficient to convince members of the long-term stellar possibilities of Ocado, then feel free to carry on without my input.