Who's going to do well?

fred246

I am doing well. My income is the same but the coronavirus seems to have stopped the wife spending. It's days since she's put anything on the credit card.

Username999

TBC15 
I see you've found how to delete posts.

Thrugelmir

DiggerUK said:

Could posters at least offer suggestions as to how people move portfolios in to defensive positions. Merely coming out with the mantra of 're allocating' and 'diversifying' is serving up bones with no meat..._

Equities by their very nature carry risk of some kind. The question that is currently being posed is whether the potential return is worth the risk.  

worldtraveller

Who's going to do well?

Maybe, anyone who invests in anything, other than that which Goldman Sachs suggests as a good investment?

Thrugelmir

worldtraveller said:

Who's going to do well?

Maybe, anyone who invests in anything, other than that which Goldman Sachs suggests as a good investment?

JP Morgan's CEO was pessimistic the other day. 

worldtraveller

Thrugelmir said:

worldtraveller said:

Who's going to do well?

Maybe, anyone who invests in anything, other than that which Goldman Sachs suggests as a good investment?

JP Morgan's CEO was pessimistic the other day. 

Yup, the company which was the father of wrapped mortgage-backed security derivatives.....Say no more!

bowlhead99

DiggerUK said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market-data

All of those market indices show a calamitous fall from 5 years ago. We all accept that volatility over a few months is neither here nor there. But this picture from five years ago!!!

Simply not the case. When I go to that link, it just shows me a list of the capital values of indexes, commodity prices and exchange rates and their one-day movement (the equities are generally +1 to +4% depending on whether it's a UK, European, US or Japanese index).  There isn't a picture of a 'calamitous fall'  or a 'drastic drop' because it is a one day snapshot.

If I click into an individual index (e.g. S&P 500) and then click again for a 5-year chart, it shows the index rising from 2081 on 17 Apr 2015 to 2790 this week (34% return) but that is only the capital value of the index - dividends received and reinvested would have added another 10% or so. Also, that return is in USD; the return to a UK investor holding an S&P500 index fund would have been about 68% in GBP over the time period, after fund management fees and operating costs . A gain of 68% is hardly a "drastic drop' from 5 years previous".   

An investor in HSBC's 'FTSE All-World' investment fund would have a return of 39.4% in the five years to Thursday noon, after charges. The gross return from FTSE World was greater, at 45.1%, because it excludes the relatively lower performance of emerging markets. If the investor had picked the FTSE Europe ex-UK he'd have made a gross return of just over 15% in sterling terms.

The FTSE 250 is down 7.5% (easily covered by dividend income) while the less-diversified FTSE 100 is down 16.5% (roughly covered by dividend income). An HSBC All-Share tracker is up 0.7% over five years after fees or 51.4% over ten. If the HSBC tracker investor looking to follow the UK stockmarket had used a 50:50 blend of FTSE100 and FTSE250, they would have been up 69% over the last decade.

It doesn't really seem to be 'doom and gloom' over longer periods, but what can be seen is that there are large disparities between different equity indexes that hold different types of companies in different parts of the world. So, diversification is useful. 

BananaRepublic

DiggerUK said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market-data

All of those market indices show a calamitous fall from 5 years ago. We all accept that volatility over a few months is neither here nor there. But this picture from five years ago!!!

If this picture remains as is, and the economic forecasts come true, then diversification in equities is a dangerous place to be.
Could posters at least offer suggestions as to how people move portfolios in to defensive positions. Merely coming out with the mantra of 're allocating' and 'diversifying' is serving up bones with no meat..._

I would have thought it was a bit too late now to think about defensive positions as the virus has been priced into the market, unless you think more falls will occur. It reminds me of one poster here who wants to buy gold as it is supposedly more secure than shares. Surely though the impending crash was pretty obvious at the end of last year so the defensive position would have been to move out of shares back then. Or at least build up an ample pile of cash. 

It’s worth remembering that most of us buy collective funds, and it takes a fair while to sell off one fund and buy into another, which is yet one more reason to follow the “buy sand, buy bucket, fill bucket with sand, insert head into sand, remove head when the storm has gone” philosophy. 

Prism

DiggerUK said:

Could posters at least offer suggestions as to how people move portfolios in to defensive positions. Merely coming out with the mantra of 're allocating' and 'diversifying' is serving up bones with no meat..._

Its the other way round. Last year in my ISA I bought a global government bond ETF as more of a defensive fund. Then after the various governments dropped the interest rates in early march I sold it as a rebalancing mechanism since it had shot up (9% since last April) and my equities had dropped. I bought into a global equity fund the next day which is now up 4.3%. So with a bit of rebalancing that part of my ISA has gone up over 13% in around a year.

coachman12

Anyone is taking a big risk listening to anyone's advice when it comes to playing the market. I can only say that I have made a fortune from my Ocado shares over the years, including another 50% last year. With their agreement with Marks & Spencer to come into effect in the autumn ( corona allowing ), I see no reason why Ocado should not continue to delight its investors, especially as it is now operating a "side-business" in selling its technology and methods of operation to supermarkets all over the world. Of course, like all supermarkets, Ocado shares are high at present. If you go in that direction, wait for a drop in the current very high price. But, as I said before, do your own research into as many companies and market sectors as possible ----and always make up your own mind. You will have as much luck ( and that's what a lot of it comes down to ) as so-called experts.