House Prices (what's next?)

edgex

RelievedSheff said:

On the one hand it does make sense that house prices should fall after this is all over and done with.

On the other hand no new houses are being built for possibly three months or more which will just add to the demand for existing houses which may hold up prices.

Who knows?

Interesting times are coming that is for sure.

Salary/wages are being mostly covered by government, so I assume existing construction sites will continue, so as to finish off whatever has been started. A half-built house can't be sold, & if left in that state for long enough & the weather gets at it, would have to be demolished & re-started.

AdrianIsabel

graphs said:

A good 20-30% reduction incoming. If you are buying now, pull out.

I can agree with the pull out option if you don't have it clear; but going back to the seller and ask for a 20-30% reduction just because of the lock down seems unreasonable. Maybe if things start to go wrong but now it will make no sense. The main problem these days is not the price but the no possibility to exchange and complete in most of the cases.

On the seller side, doing a 20-30% reduction on the selling or offer will lead to a lower value than the price the seller paid a few years ago; therefore that figure will automatically be rejected unless the seller really needs to sell it.

Mickygg

graphs said:

A good 20-30% reduction incoming. If you are buying now, pull out.

Oh dear god. OP the trouble with starting threads like this is you get nonsense posts such as this with no back up to their reasoning whatsoever.

I don’t understand starting these threads. They are house crash trolls dream such as this one. 

DYOR rather than listening to people on here as you will have many people on here on an agenda of wishing/hoping/praying for house prices to reduce as they have held off for up to 10 years and only seen them increase. 

RelievedSheff

edgex said:

RelievedSheff said:

On the one hand it does make sense that house prices should fall after this is all over and done with.

On the other hand no new houses are being built for possibly three months or more which will just add to the demand for existing houses which may hold up prices.

Who knows?

Interesting times are coming that is for sure.

Salary/wages are being mostly covered by government, so I assume existing construction sites will continue, so as to finish off whatever has been started. A half-built house can't be sold, & if left in that state for long enough & the weather gets at it, would have to be demolished & re-started.

Construction sites are shut. All of the big developers have shut their sites and stopped work. There will be no more new housing in the next 3 months at least.

There are about 8 part finished properties at the end of our road that have been made as secure as possible and will be left for the foreseeable future.

Some were sold, whether the sales proceed is another matter. 

jumperabv3

Mickygg said:

graphs said:

A good 20-30% reduction incoming. If you are buying now, pull out.

Oh dear god. OP the trouble with starting threads like this is you get nonsense posts such as this with no back up to their reasoning whatsoever.

I don’t understand starting these threads. They are house crash trolls dream such as this one. 

DYOR rather than listening to people on here as you will have many people on here on an agenda of wishing/hoping/praying for house prices to reduce as they have held off for up to 10 years and only seen them increase. 

I totally agree with you Micky ... when I wanted to buy my first BTL in London I did it in 2012 when the Eurozone was about to crash, Greece had yields skyrocketing, Cyprus went bankrupt - I consulted with people in the forum here who told me the same thing, best to pull out, wait for things to recover ... well, I bought my property for £400k in 2012, when I took the remortgage on it just about 2-3 weeks ago the surveyor had it valued as £575k, 100% unbiased .... so I would take any advice given here with a grain of salt.

Nonetheless I would not underestimate this pandemic, however I do have some belief the hot weather can really help against it, I see so many countries with hot weather having very good stats ... Australia would be a very interesting country to check in the next few months as they are in fall right now and getting ready for the winter ... it would be extremely interesting to see how things develop in comparison.

Thrugelmir

edgex said:

RelievedSheff said:

On the one hand it does make sense that house prices should fall after this is all over and done with.

On the other hand no new houses are being built for possibly three months or more which will just add to the demand for existing houses which may hold up prices.

Who knows?

Interesting times are coming that is for sure.

Salary/wages are being mostly covered by government, so I assume existing construction sites will continue, so as to finish off whatever has been started. A half-built house can't be sold, & if left in that state for long enough & the weather gets at it, would have to be demolished & re-started.

Companies themselves have other costs. Debts to service. Rents to pay.Equipment on lease. 

Mickygg

jumperabv3 said:

Mickygg said:

graphs said:

A good 20-30% reduction incoming. If you are buying now, pull out.

Oh dear god. OP the trouble with starting threads like this is you get nonsense posts such as this with no back up to their reasoning whatsoever.

I don’t understand starting these threads. They are house crash trolls dream such as this one. 

DYOR rather than listening to people on here as you will have many people on here on an agenda of wishing/hoping/praying for house prices to reduce as they have held off for up to 10 years and only seen them increase. 

I totally agree with you Micky ... when I wanted to buy my first BTL in London I did it in 2012 when the Eurozone was about to crash, Greece had yields skyrocketing, Cyprus went bankrupt - I consulted with people in the forum here who told me the same thing, best to pull out, wait for things to recover ... well, I bought my property for £400k in 2012, when I took the remortgage on it just about 2-3 weeks ago the surveyor had it valued as £575k, 100% unbiased .... so I would take any advice given here with a grain of salt.

Nonetheless I would not underestimate this pandemic, however I do have some belief the hot weather can really help against it, I see so many countries with hot weather having very good stats ... Australia would be a very interesting country to check in the next few months as they are in fall right now and getting ready for the winter ... it would be extremely interesting to see how things develop in comparison.

Hi Jumper. Absolutely I agree this pandemic is not to be underestimated and house prices may decrease but no one knows.

Similar to you, I was buying and on the final straight when we voted to Brexit! The advice on here was mainly don't buy as house prices are bound to decrease so pull out. I wasnt so sure so I went ahead and so glad I did as house prices most certainly did not go down.

There are so many keyboard warriors with hidden agendas you simply cant believe what people all say on here. There are certain  people however that post and I take note as they are knowledgable (GM). There are other trolls that should be reported as all they post are about house prices bound to crash year after year after year (crashy).

jumperabv3

Mickygg said:

Hi Jumper. Absolutely I agree this pandemic is not to be underestimated and house prices may decrease but no one knows.

Similar to you, I was buying and on the final straight when we voted to Brexit! The advice on here was mainly don't buy as house prices are bound to decrease so pull out. I wasnt so sure so I went ahead and so glad I did as house prices most certainly did not go down.

There are so many keyboard warriors with hidden agendas you simply cant believe what people all say on here. There are certain  people however that post and I take note as they are knowledgable (GM). There are other trolls that should be reported as all they post are about house prices bound to crash year after year after year (crashy).

I work with many UK companies and they keep on operating just fine now (and no, they are not related to the real estate sector), yes - it's hard times, but I see many businesses do whatever they can to stay afloat... 
The UK has a lot of uncertainties, the 2008 crash, low interest rates, Eurozone, Brexit, now Coronavirus - there is going to be a bit of uncertainty all the times, but I think once Brexit & Corona are in the history then we might finally see a bit of good news coming ... the next risk is Scotexit (becaue of Brexit) but again - no one really knows, no one can really tell what is going to happen ... the only certain thing is that as the time goes by we don't get younger and you can keep on speculating forever - if you believe in what you do then go with it ... I really find it difficult to see prices dropping massively, especially not with such low interest rates now ... if rates would go up then I'd be more worried about it but the more I think about it then the more I agree with you ... doomsayers are all over the place - the question is how many times they were right?

Crashy_Time

mystic_trev said:

hazyjo said:

This needs moving to: https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/categories/debate-house-prices-the-economy

That Forum was closed on Friday.

Just like the housing market.

Crashy_Time

numbercruncher8 said:

Nobody knows for sure. The only thing is that there are more things in favour of house prices decreasing rather than increasing, not least because things are very expensive relative to earnings.
It seems that the factors against are quite specific, but the factors for seem to be restricted to 'it increased after the last GFC', but there were a whole load of props used after that, not least the rapid decrease in interest rates. It seems impossible to increase on this scale this time around.
There also seems to be 'nothing bad happened after Brexit' but in my neck of the woods having a property as a BTL (in 2016 a viable investment against very low interest rates) has rapidly become less attractive due to taxation changes. The prospect of capital gains (another reason to own property) seems to have rapidly diminished as well.
In my own opinion, the easy money that is flowing around will find its way into property as well as other assets but with banks carrying a stack of this on their books, lending will be more cautious. There may be a short term dip in prices, but it won't last forever and overall prices will continue to advance by 1-2%, that's my guess.
That keeps the masses happy, without realising what is happening. But over a 10-year period the real falls will be substantial due to inflation.
The pain won't be just felt by homeowners though, I do feel that the measures needed to fight the virus and specifically keeping peoples incomes level will still be beyond what is pledged now. Assuming that we want to make inroads into this and that interest rates will have to rise sometime later to curb inflation, there will be tough times ahead.

The ideas that people`s incomes will be totally backstopped by the government and that there will be inflation are fantasy IMO, well the first one is just crowd calming talk (clued in landlords will be panicking though) and the second one is a banker/central bank fantasy. The wage destruction and economic fallout from this is frightening, even to me.