Would it be wise to invest in stocks & shares in 6 weeks?

Thrugelmir

bowlhead99 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Albermarle said:

So you will be paying more and there is no guarantees the outbreak won't happen again in China

Although the Wuhan lockdown has been successful, they will have to start to release it at some point and then a second wave of the virus is very likely. Probably same will happen in Europe but a few months behind China and will be maybe 18 months before we are more fully back to normal. 

Will the easy movement of people around the globe ever be the same again? Given the risks that's posed. 

Probably not. There will likely be some differences when things get moving again because regulators would rather be blamed for something they did than something they didn't, and the cost and disruption will be felt by travel companies and travellers, rather than government agencies. People get used to restrictions once they've had them for a while. A couple of decades ago, people would defend their god-given right to smoke at work or in a pub, and a couple of decades before that, seatbelts were compulsory to have installed on a new car but you didn't need to wear them and it wasn't cool to do so. Eventually the health benefits were begrudgingly accepted by all and if you demanded your 'freedom' to do whatever the hell you wanted, you were a pariah. 

Now the latest generation of adults hasn't seen a pre- 9/11 world where you can just have your hand luggage run through an x-ray at an airport without first ensuring you have put your toothpaste into a separate ziplock bag, and they will moan and rant with everyone else when someone holds up the line because they didn't take their shoes off for an inspection. It's not known how many shoebombers and exponents of liquid explosives have been deterred by these measures; but first there was a travel ban, then the flights were running again with extra checks, and then the 'extra checks' simply became 'the way it works'.

Perhaps it will become the new norm to give a swab from the inside of your cheek while you wait in line at passport control to see if you'll be allowed through the border to your destination. Or some airports will only take landing slots from airlines coming from certain jurisdictions, or which give them a greater level of advance personal details about the passengers and cargo.

The 'new normal' is generally just some modified form of old normal that people will eventually tolerate, whether because they want it, or just because they're forced to accept it.

Remember travelling to San Francisco during the swine fever outbreak. Took an entity to navigate US immigration. Who aren't the easiest of people to deal with. Coming from rural Berkshire didn't help my cause one iota!

Thrugelmir

JustAnotherSaver said:

Thrugelmir said:

JustAnotherSaver said:

Why would trackers be a bad idea in the current situation? Since many of us including myself are invested that way. 

Different strategies are better suited to different market conditions. As an investor keep an open mind. Fads come and go. 

Index trackers are a fad then?

I understand a fad as a short term fashionable thing. I thought that over large periods of time, which is what most of us invest for, trackers have given consistently decent returns?

Or not true?

Virgin launched the first FTSE 100 tracker in 1995. They saw the Vanguard model and copied the concept for the UK market. At the time the fees were relatively competitive too. Then came the Dot Com boom and the period that followed. The fund wasn't dropped but simply went out of fashion. As a certain Mr Woodford generated superior returns through selective stock picking throughout the period. People hate to miss out..........

PS. I'm not anti tracker per se. Cannot fault Bogle's original concept for the main US indices.

Kendall80

Same logic applies now as under 'normal' conditions regarding active/passive. If you go the active route you may pick a winner, you may pick a loser. Buy the market with a tracker and you get the market. I know a couple of my favoured actives have held up much better than the trackers these past few weeks but they could just as easily have underperformed too. Theres always the option of mixing the 2 strategies. Hedging your bets if you will.

Thrugelmir

Kendall80 said:

Same logic applies now as under 'normal' conditions regarding active/passive. If you go the active route you may pick a winner, you may pick a loser. Buy the market with a tracker and you get the market. I know a couple of my favoured actives have held up much better than the trackers these past few weeks but they could just as easily have underperformed too. Theres always the option of mixing the 2 strategies. Hedging your bets if you will.

My active fund exposure is extremely restricted. Narrowed down to what could be regarded as defensive sectors. Energy, healthcare for example. Currently I'm around 40% cash in my active portfolio. Though not adverse to a purchase or two of individual company stocks on the dip days. These are selective buy and hold purchases that will be able to weather the storm however long it lasts. No ongoing fees either.