Would it be wise to invest in stocks & shares in 6 weeks?

Malthusian

JustAnotherSaver said:

Why would trackers be a bad idea in the current situation? Since many of us including myself are invested that way. 

Everyone was a great believer in both buy-and-hold and trackers when markets were going up.

Now they are falling, people want to believe they have a magic ability to reduce losses by timing the market, and by beating the market through investment in individual shares.

In reality there is no evidence that anyone will consistently beat the market by correctly guessing which shares to avoid because coronavirus will bankrupt them.

Thrugelmir

JustAnotherSaver said:

Why would trackers be a bad idea in the current situation? Since many of us including myself are invested that way. 

Different strategies are better suited to different market conditions. As an investor keep an open mind. Fads come and go. 

Thrugelmir

Albermarle said:

So you will be paying more and there is no guarantees the outbreak won't happen again in China

Although the Wuhan lockdown has been successful, they will have to start to release it at some point and then a second wave of the virus is very likely. Probably same will happen in Europe but a few months behind China and will be maybe 18 months before we are more fully back to normal. 

Will the easy movement of people around the globe ever be the same again? Given the risks that's posed. 

bowlhead99

Thrugelmir said:

Albermarle said:

So you will be paying more and there is no guarantees the outbreak won't happen again in China

Although the Wuhan lockdown has been successful, they will have to start to release it at some point and then a second wave of the virus is very likely. Probably same will happen in Europe but a few months behind China and will be maybe 18 months before we are more fully back to normal. 

Will the easy movement of people around the globe ever be the same again? Given the risks that's posed. 

Probably not. There will likely be some differences when things get moving again because regulators would rather be blamed for something they did than something they didn't, and the cost and disruption will be felt by travel companies and travellers, rather than government agencies. People get used to restrictions once they've had them for a while. A couple of decades ago, people would defend their god-given right to smoke at work or in a pub, and a couple of decades before that, seatbelts were compulsory to have installed on a new car but you didn't need to wear them and it wasn't cool to do so. Eventually the health benefits were begrudgingly accepted by all and if you demanded your 'freedom' to do whatever the hell you wanted, you were a pariah. 

Now the latest generation of adults hasn't seen a pre- 9/11 world where you can just have your hand luggage run through an x-ray at an airport without first ensuring you have put your toothpaste into a separate ziplock bag, and they will moan and rant with everyone else when someone holds up the line because they didn't take their shoes off for an inspection. It's not known how many shoebombers and exponents of liquid explosives have been deterred by these measures; but first there was a travel ban, then the flights were running again with extra checks, and then the 'extra checks' simply became 'the way it works'.

Perhaps it will become the new norm to give a swab from the inside of your cheek while you wait in line at passport control to see if you'll be allowed through the border to your destination. Or some airports will only take landing slots from airlines coming from certain jurisdictions, or which give them a greater level of advance personal details about the passengers and cargo.

The 'new normal' is generally just some modified form of old normal that people will eventually tolerate, whether because they want it, or just because they're forced to accept it.

Tildaplum

Perceived Wisdom is that we will only be truly out of this once a vaccine is available which hopefully will be within 12 to 18 months

JustAnotherSaver

Thrugelmir said:

JustAnotherSaver said:

Why would trackers be a bad idea in the current situation? Since many of us including myself are invested that way. 

Different strategies are better suited to different market conditions. As an investor keep an open mind. Fads come and go. 

Index trackers are a fad then?

I understand a fad as a short term fashionable thing. I thought that over large periods of time, which is what most of us invest for, trackers have given consistently decent returns?

Or not true?

Albermarle

Tildaplum said:

Perceived Wisdom is that we will only be truly out of this once a vaccine is available which hopefully will be within 12 to 18 months

Do not want to be too doom laden, but nothing to stop another virus appearing at some point ( with no vaccine available)
Hopefully some more advanced animal market hygiene might help.

JustAnotherSaver

Albermarle said:

Hopefully some more advanced animal market hygiene might help.

In certain countries? You must be joking?

Tildaplum

Interesting you should say that and I totally agree there has been no discussion at least as far as I have heard about what caused this outbreak and ways to prevent another outbreak in the future

we really do have to start looking after our world and other non-human beings that live in it

JustAnotherSaver

Tildaplum said:

we really do have to start looking after our world and other non-human beings that live in it

Unfortunately as long as there are people on this planet that wont be happening.

The line in Terminator 2 about us self destructing is pretty accurate imo. People are selfish.

A relative of mine is having to self isolate. Story short one of their kids could very well have this virus. They haven't tested so we don't know for sure but they're in quite a bad way whatever they've got. This relative is still out and about going to see other family.

People are just selfish.

But that's a debate for another day/thread.