Vanguard 80% and Coronavirus

Sir_Robin

I know how you feel I’m  in vanguard 60%, i  refuse to look but I  have a rough idea and it’s wiped out an6 profits and at a big loss. At the end of the day we rolled the dice, this was possibility. I can’t afford to crystallise this loss and don’t need it yet so I’m waiting,

 

fiisch

When do you plan to need this money?

Personally, I'm chucking every spare nickel and dime into my SIPP/ISAs currently.  Yes, it's pretty grim at the moment, but it's "only" the flu.  It will have a huge impact for sure, on some industries more than others, but ultimately the economy will recover and the world will continue to spin.

bowlhead99

fiisch said:

When do you plan to need this money?

Personally, I'm chucking every spare nickel and dime into my SIPP/ISAs currently.  Yes, it's pretty grim at the moment, but it's "only" the flu.  It will have a huge impact for sure, on some industries more than others, but ultimately the economy will recover and the world will continue to spin.

Markets will be back, even if not just yet. Maybe 15-20% down for the S&P over the year if the 'leaked' set of bullet points circulating from a Goldman Sachs investor call last Thursday  are to be believed (some heavy paraphrasing apparently).  

https://www.forbes.com/sites/abrambrown/2020/03/16/the-private-goldman-sachs-coronavirus-meeting-thats-setting-the-internet-on-fire/
I saw a separate Goldman report which mentioned zero US growth this quarter, a 5% contraction in Q2, with the significant supply chain disruptions we're having or about to be having, followed by a strong flip back upwards in the last two quarters. But of course markets don't slavishly follow the economy, they track people's perceptions about companies' returns prospects versus other alternatives and how those prospects are being considered differently from the last time they were considered five seconds, minutes, days, hours, weeks or months ago.

steampowered

w00519773 said:

My fund has lost over 30% in a short period of time, which has eliminated gains made over many many years.  I am debating what do do. 

My research is telling me that there won't be an improvement until a cure if found for coronavirus, which is likely to be next year. 

Your gains haven't been eliminated; as you will have been collecting dividends over those years - worth far more than the interest you are paying on your mortgage.

Your statement about your "research" suggests you are trying to time the market. The risk of coronavirus should already be priced into the markets. Furthermore, the fact that it might take a year to sort out is not too relevant if you are investing for the long term.

Personally, I would stay fully invested and keep investing for the recovery.

JustAnotherSaver

When do you plan to draw on this money? Next year? 2025?

2050? 2060?

never/pass it all on to children?

ill be accessing mine in about 30 years. Would be nice if the markets just rose and rose and rose forever more and everyone always hit profits but I’m not overly worried yet as I’ve a long time ahead. 

For the record, I’m also in VLS80 with a similar pot size. Think mine is at 18k thereabouts. My returns are showing up as minus 2% I think it said on Friday. 

My Vanguard S&S ISA after showing +12% 12months ago was showing as minus 7% on Friday. 

Captain_Bravo

Another problem with Vanguard LifeStrategy funds is the amount of time needed to sell. I saw a nice rally on Friday 13 March, I decided to sell fast and buy back in April , but it was sold only this morning, 15% cheaper than Friday prices (

ratechaser

Mrs RC is in for about 100k with VLS80 right now and believe me, I'm getting some stick because it was apparently me that suggested it might be a decent diversified option for her a couple of years back, rather than keeping it cash at 2%. But heigh ho, even she's not planning on selling up and will be riding this one out...

AnotherJoe

However, this time seems different.  My research is telling me that there won't be an improvement until a cure if found for coronavirus, which is likely to be next year.  

whereas recovery from the financial crisis was longer with no vaccine (potentiall) easy fix

Kendall80

Captain_Bravo said:

Another problem with Vanguard LifeStrategy funds is the amount of time needed to sell. I saw a nice rally on Friday 13 March, I decided to sell fast and buy back in April , but it was sold only this morning, 15% cheaper than Friday prices (

That is unfortunate but fund pricing times are specified in the fund prospectus/factsheet (cant remember which). This was delved into on another thread but i'll try and summarise.

VLS funds are priced at 9pm UK time. However, your ISA provider will have a cut-off time for getting trades in (10am for CSD).

This means if you submitted your Friday sell order before 10am you would've got Fridays 2100 VLS price.

If you submitted your sell order after 10am Friday you would have received Mondays 2100 VLS price and received your contract note today.

Hope that helps. It can get a bit confusing at times. I have the pricing times for those funds i'm investing in written down in case I forget.

Kendall80

ratechaser said:

Mrs RC is in for about 100k with VLS80 right now and believe me, I'm getting some stick because it was apparently me that suggested it might be a decent diversified option for her a couple of years back, rather than keeping it cash at 2%. But heigh ho, even she's not planning on selling up and will be riding this one out...

I will probably be getting some stick for choosing VLS 80 over a 3% cash JISA for my kids. At least we have our health..... for now.