Please help me stay invested! I’m wobbling

dunstonh

Used them for various things for decades 

The current crash is lower than both the credit crunch and dot.com period.  As you have been with them decades, you would have gone through both of these.    So, what is different today when markets have gone down less than either of those two events?

newatc

dunstonh said:

Used them for various things for decades 

The current crash is lower than both the credit crunch and dot.com period.  As you have been with them decades, you would have gone through both of these.    So, what is different today when markets have gone down less than either of those two events?

I hope your sentiment is right but I don't think the coronavirus is comparable with the above because of the scientific uncertainties about the duration of the crisis. Many businesses are going to  definitely suffer and no doubt some will fail.
That said, my portfoliio has lost a big chunk and I think I'm to late to get out so I'm just sticking at the moment and hoping I'll be around to see it turn around. 
I share with your pain OP but nobody can advise you what to do as it depends on your psychology. I can say I'm not losing any sleep over my "paper" loss which makes it easier for me to stick with it despite my pessimistic concerns.

Alexland

newatc said:

I hope your sentiment is right but I don't think the coronavirus is comparable with the above because of the scientific uncertainties about the duration of the crisis. Many businesses are going to  definitely suffer and no doubt some will fail.

I remember during the credit crunch wondering if all the banks would collapse like dominos one after another taking everyone's accumulated wealth and the rest of the world economy down with them. It was genuinely extremely concerning at the time. Now we look back with hindsight and it doesn't seem so bad as the latest thing to worry about.

Malthusian

I hope your sentiment is right but I don't think the coronavirus is comparable with the above because of the scientific uncertainties about the duration of the crisis.

Nobody knew how long the 2008 and 2000 crises were going to last either.

Many businesses are going to  definitely suffer and no doubt some will fail.

As they did in the 2008 and 2000 crashes. Lots of them. So far there have been no major busts along the lines of Bear Stearns or Lehman Brothers due to coronavirus. (Flybe was already bankrupt before coronavirus.) If a travel agent or provincial airline goes bust, that will be to Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns what my local pub closing is to a provincial airline.

There is only one important difference between the current crash and the ones you already lived through, and that is that 2008 and 2000 were in the past so you are analysing them factually, while 2020 is right now so you are going through it emotionally. Nobody looks at statements from 2009 and goes "Waaah, that was really scary when I "lost" half my money 10 years ago".

newatc

Malthusian said:

I hope your sentiment is right but I don't think the coronavirus is comparable with the above because of the scientific uncertainties about the duration of the crisis.

Nobody knew how long the 2008 and 2000 crises were going to last either.

Many businesses are going to  definitely suffer and no doubt some will fail.

As they did in the 2008 and 2000 crashes. Lots of them. So far there have been no major busts along the lines of Bear Stearns or Lehman Brothers due to coronavirus. (Flybe was already bankrupt before coronavirus.) If a travel agent or provincial airline goes bust, that will be to Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns what my local pub closing is to a provincial airline.

There is only one important difference between the current crash and the ones you already lived through, and that is that 2008 and 2000 were in the past so you are analysing them factually, while 2020 is right now so you are going through it emotionally. Nobody looks at statements from 2009 and goes "Waaah, that was really scary when I "lost" half my money 10 years ago".

You are right in one respect that there is an emotional aspect. However I still think this is of deeper concern and we fall further than 2008 but we shall see if the market regains ground at a faster pace than in 2008 (nearly 5 years).

masonic

newatc said:

Malthusian said:

I hope your sentiment is right but I don't think the coronavirus is comparable with the above because of the scientific uncertainties about the duration of the crisis.

Nobody knew how long the 2008 and 2000 crises were going to last either.

Many businesses are going to  definitely suffer and no doubt some will fail.

As they did in the 2008 and 2000 crashes. Lots of them. So far there have been no major busts along the lines of Bear Stearns or Lehman Brothers due to coronavirus. (Flybe was already bankrupt before coronavirus.) If a travel agent or provincial airline goes bust, that will be to Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns what my local pub closing is to a provincial airline.

There is only one important difference between the current crash and the ones you already lived through, and that is that 2008 and 2000 were in the past so you are analysing them factually, while 2020 is right now so you are going through it emotionally. Nobody looks at statements from 2009 and goes "Waaah, that was really scary when I "lost" half my money 10 years ago".

You are right in one respect that there is an emotional aspect. However I still think this is of deeper concern and we fall further than 2008 but we shall see if the market regains ground at a faster pace than in 2008 (nearly 5 years).

Which market took nearly 5 years to recover? The FTSE All world index took just over 2 years, FTSE All share took about 3 years, and S&P500 took 2.5 years.

EdGasketTheSecond

The Dow took 36 years to recover from the 1929 crash and I don't have that long to wait!

masonic

EdGasketTheSecond said:

The Dow took 36 years to recover from the 1929 crash and I don't have that long to wait!

Worth noting there was also a world war in that period. Probably other contributory events. Not to say WW3 definitely won't break out in the next few years...

Also worth noting that if you include dividends, Dow investors regained their losses after 10 years, and if you also include deflation, it's been estimated to be as low as 5 years.

EdGasketTheSecond

I don't believe we'll get deflation this time though. With supply shortages there can only be price increases and inflation.

newatc

Masonic - I was looking at FTSE100 levels (I know that doesn't included dividends).