Liquidate entire portfolio until virus is over?

LHW99

EdGasketTheSecond said:

I was thinking get back in after virus has peaked and probably when a lot of financial carnage is still happening due to the effects of it on business. Alternatively if there is a rise of 10% off a low; you miss out on the bottom but hopefully hit the recovery trend

"Quick rise after low,
Sure sign of stronger blow." 

EdGasketTheSecond

Gradually culling the portfolio; having to sell some at a loss also.

Mrbeethoven

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Gradually culling the portfolio; having to sell some at a loss also.

 "having to"

Really?

Unless something very unexpected happened in my life that could not be covered by my cash buffer I would hope never to be having to sell at short notice. Certainly not after market falls. Selling out of the stock market is something I would want to do gradually on a planned basis, or when the market is riding high and I had identified an opportunity to do something useful with the cash. I wouldn't do it to try and market-time my way to extra profit as that could easily work against me.

Thrugelmir

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Gradually culling the portfolio; having to sell some at a loss also.

In a considered manner? 

Malthusian

LHW99 said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

I was thinking get back in after virus has peaked and probably when a lot of financial carnage is still happening due to the effects of it on business. Alternatively if there is a rise of 10% off a low; you miss out on the bottom but hopefully hit the recovery trend

"Quick rise after low,
Sure sign of stronger blow." 

Indeed. A sudden bounce usually indicates that muppets' limit orders have kicked in, after which the crash carries on as normal (taking limit-order muppets down with it), until it reaches the actual bottom (where they will probably panic and sell their supposedly cheap shares at a loss, in the hope of buying back in when the market falls further, as this is what people who try to time the market are wont to do.)

Nobody knows when the actual bottom was until it's already the top of the market again.

There is no momentum strategy that consistently beats the market.

Thrugelmir

Malthusian said:

LHW99 said:

EdGasketTheSecond said:

I was thinking get back in after virus has peaked and probably when a lot of financial carnage is still happening due to the effects of it on business. Alternatively if there is a rise of 10% off a low; you miss out on the bottom but hopefully hit the recovery trend

"Quick rise after low,
Sure sign of stronger blow." 

Indeed. A sudden bounce usually indicates that muppets' limit orders have kicked in, after which the crash carries on as normal (taking limit-order muppets down with it), until it reaches the actual bottom (where they will probably panic and sell their supposedly cheap shares at a loss, in the hope of buying back in when the market falls further, as this is what people who try to time the market are wont to do.)

Nobody knows when the actual bottom was until it's already the top of the market again.

There is no momentum strategy that consistently beats the market.

The bottom is reached when an individual share price is oversold, i.e. offers value. 

EdGasketTheSecond

The crashes usually don't happen from the peak but from a ledge or 'shoulder' part way back from the top.

Selling what I can 'in a considered manner', yes.

bostonerimus

EdGasketTheSecond said:

The crashes usually don't happen from the peak but from a ledge or 'shoulder' part way back from the top.

Pattern seeking numerology at it's best. I'm not selling anything, I'm still reinvesting dividends and just put my tax refund into a US equity Index fund.

Alexland

Did whatever you are selling benefit from the overnight increases in the US?

It's baffling to see the Dow over 27,000 and the OECD still forecasting any growth this year given the likely virus containment actions that may be required.

Yesterday I placed a fund trade to reverse a tilt into equities from the end of last week and am looking forward to seeing the new unit price and resulting profit today. Still have one more tilt to reverse from the middle of last week.

MK62

EdGasketTheSecond said:

The crashes usually don't happen from the peak but from a leudge or 'shoulder' part way back from the top.

Selling what I can 'in a considered manner', yes.

Nobody can tell you for sure that your strategy won't make you any money, it might, but really only in the same sense that putting it all on red might, or maybe an each way shout in the 3:15 at Kempton Park........it's basically just gambling tbh. However, it's your money.......