Liquidate entire portfolio until virus is over?

EdGasketTheSecond

This time there will be a fairly quantifiable end point; i.e. after the virus has peaked, so one can buy in then or assess how weakened the economy is and maybe hold off for longer.

China's output is said to now be 32% of normal and less than during the financial crisis. So this is going to have more of an impact than the 10% or so drop we have had already imho.

NorthernJoe

EdGasketTheSecond said:
Yes well my idea of 'active management' is to get out of equities now and stay out until the virus has done its dirty work and the carnage can be assessed; assuming I am still alive at the end. Just wondering if anyone else felt the same or had ever done that.

Yes. Two weeks ago. 

NorthernJoe

bostonerimus said:

Give me strength! Investing is not complicated. Invest just the same as you would have done before the coronavirus. Put it in a multi-asset fund or a portfolio of a few inexpensive tracker funds with an asset allocation appropriate to your circumstances. Make sure you always keep at least 6 months cash on hand for emergencies. Do that until you retire and develop a withdrawal plan

So the outlook for the global economy hasn't changed since early 2020? The usual adages do not apply. 

No one saw this coming. This isn't an ordinary event. This isn't noise. 

Linton

NorthernJoe said:

bostonerimus said:

Give me strength! Investing is not complicated. Invest just the same as you would have done before the coronavirus. Put it in a multi-asset fund or a portfolio of a few inexpensive tracker funds with an asset allocation appropriate to your circumstances. Make sure you always keep at least 6 months cash on hand for emergencies. Do that until you retire and develop a withdrawal plan

So the outlook for the global economy hasn't changed since early 2020? The usual adages do not apply. 

No one saw this coming. This isn't an ordinary event. This isn't noise. 

An investment in the FTSE World Index is now back to the then all time high it reached in July 2019.  This is noise.  Of course things could get worse.  If it means the end of the world your investments are likely to be the least of your problems. If not, prices will recover in a relatively short time frame.

chucknorris

EdGasketTheSecond said:

Is anyone else contemplating or have ever liquidated all their shareholdings and stayed in cash (or some other non-equity investment) while markets have crashed? I am thinking that this is probably only the beginning of a protracted bear market and we could see values drop by a third from here.

I've gone the other way, I have invested more, and if it drops further, I will (eventually) invest more too.

Old_Lifer

I can remember  the index  of UK shares falling 70per cent in 18 months.   I didn't sell then and I'm not selling now!

ANGLICANPAT

Replying to Ed Gaskets first question ,  I think people who feel the stock market  will drop a third or even half  or more  and think  that the recovery to even current  levels may well  take more years than they have left  agewise ,would  be keen to liquidate what they could , having wished they'd done it  2 weeks ago .   

aroominyork

Do I think the market is going to fall further?
- Yes. I think there is worse to come. It is surreal to look at my main global index holding and see it rise by over 5% today.
Am I liquidating my equities?
- No, none at all (just a minor switch between two emerging market holdings). I would have no idea when to re-buy so I am riding it out. 
Should you sell?
- Dunno, but if you do I suggest you pick a point at which you would re-buy, eg when prices fall 10% more, so even if they fall further you can tell yourself you have done 10% better than most of us. But you might do worse than us...

Old_Lifer

Anglicanpat makes a good point and many older holders may choose to do just that.

Personally, I have become so used to buying selectively after a big fall that I will continue to do so .  I  seem to have the same approach as chucknorris.

LobsterMemory

Ringed is the Great Financial Crash (ignore the spike in Dec 2008, I happened to transfer in my Equitable Life pension)

I'm expecting the latest downturn to be of as little relevance in the grand scheme of things