Squeaky bum time!

cfw1994

OldMusicGuy said:

DairyQueen said:

......
I recall that you are due to move into a new home soon? Any issues with that? Our planned house move has hit the dust as we have two properties to sell. The first is currently being decorated and was due to be marketed at the end of this month (some chance of that now). We are currently cramped into tiny property number two and will be here for the duration. 
.....

Lots of developments on that front. We were having a house built but the builder was so far behind schedule and stringing us along that we gave up on that about four weeks ago. We had an offer accepted on a different new build property on March 12th, with completion due for June.

We are going ahead with that purchase as we want to get out of rented, although we expect some delays. I was pleased to hear Martin Lewis on the radio at lunchtime saying that if you were buying a new build and could still afford to, you should push ahead, which is what we are doing. Sadly this forum has become polluted with house price crash scaremongers who have crawled out of the woodwork.

On the investment front, my scenario modelling shows that a 20% drop this year followed by three years of slow recovery back to 2019 levels won't have a major impact over the long term. Based on performance so far, a 20% drop in my portfolio will be about a 55% to 60% market drop. That gives me some consolation, because like other posters, I think things will get worse before they get better.  

Careful you don’t become like those house price doom-mongers wrt markets 
I’m personally glad we are into lockdown, and I think the government has been quite clever (or lucky - either works for me!) in making it appear like it is “our fault” - we didn’t heed the guidance over the weekend, so here we go.

I actually agree things could get worse, but equally, I feel that with the weight of scientific research across the planet focussed on CV19, I believe (#hope!) we may come out faster than the virus doom-mongers have us think.
Only time will tell.  Good luck with your impending move!

Anonymous101

cfw1994 said:

I’m personally glad we are into lockdown, and I think the government has been quite clever (or lucky - either works for me!) in making it appear like it is “our fault” - we didn’t heed the guidance over the weekend, so here we go.

I actually agree things could get worse, but equally, I feel that with the weight of scientific research across the planet focussed on CV19, I believe (#hope!) we may come out faster than the virus doom-mongers have us think.
Only time will tell.  Good luck with your impending move!

I'm glad too. I hadn't looked at it like that previously but certainly if the "give them enough rope" tactic was planned it worked well. Personally I think the approach was more geared towards maintaining economic output for as long as possible. Either way it became clear over the weekend that the public couldn't apply common sense to social distancing so a firmer hand is needed.

OldMusicGuy

cfw1994 said:

Careful you don’t become like those house price doom-mongers wrt markets 

It's a fair cop  I should have been clearer in my language.... I think there's probably more downward movement in the market while uncertainty continues, and how things go in the US will definitely have an effect. But we will definitely get through this and the global economy will recover, although it could take some time. As will all things market-related, there will be winners and losers. Hopefully my very diversified portfolio will be an appropriate strategy for whatever happens.

Thrugelmir

Anonymous101 said:

cfw1994 said:

I’m personally glad we are into lockdown, and I think the government has been quite clever (or lucky - either works for me!) in making it appear like it is “our fault” - we didn’t heed the guidance over the weekend, so here we go.

I actually agree things could get worse, but equally, I feel that with the weight of scientific research across the planet focussed on CV19, I believe (#hope!) we may come out faster than the virus doom-mongers have us think.
Only time will tell.  Good luck with your impending move!

 Either way it became clear over the weekend that the public couldn't apply common sense to social distancing so a firmer hand is needed.

We lack the resource to effectively police a complete lock down. This mornings news suggests that many still care very little for the wider community. The bounce in the markets maybe short lived as a consequence. 

Ceme3000

OldMusicGuy said:
Hopefully my very diversified portfolio will be an appropriate strategy for whatever happens.

You're not tempted to re-balance more into equities in anticipation of a recovery? 

OldMusicGuy

Ceme3000 said:

You're not tempted to re-balance more into equities in anticipation of a recovery? 

Not at present, but I am hugely risk averse. I've been holding a lot of cash to avoid sequence of returns risk. However, I might be tempted in the forseeable future, it depends what happens with interest rates and inflation. I have plenty still invested that will see us out  over our lifetime if the markets come back to 2019 levels within 3 to 5 years.

atush

Anonymous101 said:

cfw1994 said:

I’m personally glad we are into lockdown, and I think the government has been quite clever (or lucky - either works for me!) in making it appear like it is “our fault” - we didn’t heed the guidance over the weekend, so here we go.

I actually agree things could get worse, but equally, I feel that with the weight of scientific research across the planet focussed on CV19, I believe (#hope!) we may come out faster than the virus doom-mongers have us think.
Only time will tell.  Good luck with your impending move!

I'm glad too. I hadn't looked at it like that previously but certainly if the "give them enough rope" tactic was planned it worked well. Personally I think the approach was more geared towards maintaining economic output for as long as possible. Either way it became clear over the weekend that the public couldn't apply common sense to social distancing so a firmer hand is needed.

And so many people complain about the nanny state esp as regards pensions and getting the money out willy nilly.

Now we see perfectly clearly some covidiots need a bit of nannying.

Albermarle

Interesting discussion on PM on R4.
ICU doctor - ' all my colleagues are scared, expecting a disaster - public is carrying on like they don't care'
South London GP -' Waiting room almost empty - everybody just calls by phone- nobody seriously ill- local streets deserted '
On BBC website - one picture of crowded tube train - 10 pictures of deserted towns & cities ( including London) MI in midlands almost empty in rush hour  
I think the seriousness of the situation has  got through to vast majority , although there will always be a anti social /thick element 

m_c_s

Something to keep an eye on although a bit speculative.
Oxford University has now published their initial modelling and they say that the virus could have been circulating widely in the UK back in January. They say it is possible that already 50% of the population has had it and immunity is being built up. Seems like the Imperial College modelling has some competition and a somewhat different assessment of outcomes:
"The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February."
Also :
"But the Oxford results would mean the country had already acquired substantial herd immunity through the unrecognised spread of Covid-19 over more than two months. If the findings are confirmed by testing, then the current restrictions could be removed much sooner than ministers have indicated.".

They hope to confirm their assumptions in the next few days.

"To provide the necessary evidence, the Oxford group is working with colleagues at the Universities of Cambridge and Kent to start antibody testing on the general population as soon as possible, using specialised “neutralisation assays which provide reliable readout of protective immunity,” Prof Gupta said. They hope to start testing later this week and obtain preliminary results within a few days."

Article in the FT:

https://t.co/97Jnwk3Aq2?amp=1

justme111

Yes but why would our death count be so much lower than Italian or Chinese then ?🤔