Coronavirus effect on property markets?

MobileSaver

silvertooth said:

do you now agree that we may be facing an even greater depression than 1929?

No, this will not be as bad as the Great Depression; that went on for years, even the gloomiest predictions for the COVID-19 crisis think the worst will be over in around one year.

triathlon

silvertooth said:

triathlon said:

silvertooth said:

Damage to the world’s financial system is going to be catastrophic 

the economy is tanking and we are only just started this crisis imagine by the time we are in the middle of it?

Most shops and all businesses to do with food have more staff than customers these days, and instead of laying them off leading to mass unemployment the government are going to create billions of units of currency to keep paying these staff to go to work and do nothing 

What could possibly go wrong?

i know there is no easy answer but keep paying staff and keeping the zombie dead businesses is the exact same thing as keeping zombie banks artificially alive when they have to all intents and purposes collapsed.

ALL BANKS HAVE NOT SURVIVED THIS FIRST QUARTER 2020. Now they have announced they are not going to release the earnings reports because they don’t want to cause a panic, but it’s a bit late for that.

surely the only answer is to let the businesses fail who have failed and let the financial system fail because it has failed now that the too big to fail banks have failed in the first quarter earnings results.

THERE IS NO SAVING THE GLOBAL SYSTEM NOW. The financial collapse is absolutely inevitable.

How could anybody claim otherwise? I’m sure some will try nd I’m interested to hear how?

What it is called is compassion and wiping the brow of a suffering incapacitated person at your expense until he is ready to rise again and pay you back, you are just upset that they won;t take the suffering patient around the back of the shed and pull the trigger.

I didn’t understand any of that?

do you now agree that we may be facing an even greater depression than 1929? Is that what you are trying to say?

Why don't you just go back to HPC.com where you belong and hope your silver, bitcoin investing/ramping  and no buying property strategy one day works. For a guy that is making himself out to be a financial wizard and lecturing people on that very subject  on here it is tragic that you are still in a bedsit

silvertooth

MobileSaver said:

silvertooth said:

do you now agree that we may be facing an even greater depression than 1929?

No, this will not be as bad as the Great Depression; that went on for years, even the gloomiest predictions for the COVID-19 crisis think the worst will be over in around one year.

Even if there is a vaccine in year which I doubt, do you think all those companies could survive this long? Do you think they will re-employ all the millions that got made redundant?

no, even if the pandemic is over in a year the panic will last a decade or more

and I think the pandemic will last a lot longer than a year 

gfplux

Windofchange said:

Thrugelmir said:

buglawton said:

MobileSaver said:

buglawton said:

Germany is ticking along with 4x the cases but a fatality rate per case apparently a quarter of the UK's. Is it because of a better funded health service

I'd be very wary of jumping to any conclusions on such tiny numbers; we are talking about 21 confirmed UK deaths out of a population of around 66 million.

Yesterday's Telegraph had figures for number of ICUs per capita per country. The UK was at the bottom of the table. Germany has 3 times as many ICUs as the UK per capita. Gradually the reason why they've a quarter of the mortality per detected Coronavirus case may be getting clearer. Though the figures will need to be cooly analysed by statisticians in the aftermath.

Might have the beds. Do they have the trained staff? ICU requires specialists. 

I'm potentially about to start some refresher training in the next couple of days to take on ICU / HDU shifts. I did some junior and mid grade work on intensive care, so know what I know, but it's a bit rusty as this isn't my current clinical area. The plan very much at the moment is to recall anyone and everyone who used to work in intensive care, and train up anyone and everyone who could potentially work in intensive care with a crash course / refresher. I have also observed how incredibly fast a make shift ICU can be constructed when enough builders are thrown at it! Speaking from the front line, this is going to get worse before it gets better, but I am as ever incredibly proud of how every corner of the NHS is pulling together to sort this mess out.

Thank you for your work. Keep healthy.
Is there any signs that overseas medical staff are returning home to help out their place of birth or the reverse British medical returning from overseas even those working for NGO’s.

gfplux

Windofchange said:

silvertooth said:

There will be a serious shortage of staff because this virus seems to infect everyone even with correct PPE

sports halls and hotels will all have to be made into field hospitals but there is nowhere near enough staff

every trained medical professional will need to be covering hundreds of infected each

Possibly the biggest threat to vulnerable people currently is this sort of hysteria. It is exactly this that is driving people to buy out supermarkets, and think that the world is coming to an end. PPE is very effective against COVID-19 when worn properly, and those of us at the front line have been drilled for years with regard to infection control. It is what we have been doing day in day out for decades with highly vulnerable patient groups, and in some cases, viruses and diseases far more dangerous that this.

The current plan is around usage of existing NHS facilities as opposed to hotels and sports halls. Again, calm down. Also, see point one. Even if you turned a sports hall into a hospital, how are you going to staff it? There is in essence a natural barrier to how big the response can be, and this is dictated by the staffing that we have available. You aren't going to see your local Travelodge turned into an intensive care unit. 

Speaking again from experience, the vast majority of cases I have come across to date are not needing intensive medical treatment. They are needing supplementary oxygen, or IV fluids etc, not ventilators and exotic medical procedures. I feel the real danger to the general population comes from the knock on effects of cancellation of operations, lack of A&E space etc. I think that more people will suffer from these effects than from COVID itself. 

It's certainly interesting times, and this will rumble on for a fair amount of time. As a plea from the front line, the best thing you can do is stay calm and carry on with a bit of extra care and attention to your personal hygiene and those around you who are maybe vulnerable. Could you go shopping this weekend for some elderly neighbours? Could you maybe not buy 2 years of toilet roll so that everyone can have some? Could you offer some time to volunteer for charities? 

Sorry, another question.
As you are at the front line do you know anything about the shortage of protective clothing or the downgrading of what is required to wear as written about in the Times, Guardian and Telegraph today.

buglawton

Thrugelmir said:

buglawton said:

Thrugelmir said:

buglawton said:

MobileSaver said:

buglawton said:

Germany is ticking along with 4x the cases but a fatality rate per case apparently a quarter of the UK's. Is it because of a better funded health service

I'd be very wary of jumping to any conclusions on such tiny numbers; we are talking about 21 confirmed UK deaths out of a population of around 66 million.

Yesterday's Telegraph had figures for number of ICUs per capita per country. The UK was at the bottom of the table. Germany has 3 times as many ICUs as the UK per capita. Gradually the reason why they've a quarter of the mortality per detected Coronavirus case may be getting clearer. Though the figures will need to be cooly analysed by statisticians in the aftermath.

Might have the beds. Do they have the trained staff? ICU requires specialists. 

Nice snipe but they wouldn't be maintaining ICUs without the skilled staff to operate them. Willing to be proven wrong, you go first.

Not maintaining ICU. Staffing the additional available beds for the expected influx . There's plenty of bed space now available as planned surgery has been cancelled. Plenty of NHS staff are already on 14 day self isolation here. 

Windofchange  A&E demand has fallen considerably. Seems as if closure measures have resulted in fewer incidents also people are less inclined to turn up for minor ailments. 

Source: Daily Telegraph

Windofchange

gfplux said:

Windofchange said:

silvertooth said:

There will be a serious shortage of staff because this virus seems to infect everyone even with correct PPE

sports halls and hotels will all have to be made into field hospitals but there is nowhere near enough staff

every trained medical professional will need to be covering hundreds of infected each

Possibly the biggest threat to vulnerable people currently is this sort of hysteria. It is exactly this that is driving people to buy out supermarkets, and think that the world is coming to an end. PPE is very effective against COVID-19 when worn properly, and those of us at the front line have been drilled for years with regard to infection control. It is what we have been doing day in day out for decades with highly vulnerable patient groups, and in some cases, viruses and diseases far more dangerous that this.

The current plan is around usage of existing NHS facilities as opposed to hotels and sports halls. Again, calm down. Also, see point one. Even if you turned a sports hall into a hospital, how are you going to staff it? There is in essence a natural barrier to how big the response can be, and this is dictated by the staffing that we have available. You aren't going to see your local Travelodge turned into an intensive care unit. 

Speaking again from experience, the vast majority of cases I have come across to date are not needing intensive medical treatment. They are needing supplementary oxygen, or IV fluids etc, not ventilators and exotic medical procedures. I feel the real danger to the general population comes from the knock on effects of cancellation of operations, lack of A&E space etc. I think that more people will suffer from these effects than from COVID itself. 

It's certainly interesting times, and this will rumble on for a fair amount of time. As a plea from the front line, the best thing you can do is stay calm and carry on with a bit of extra care and attention to your personal hygiene and those around you who are maybe vulnerable. Could you go shopping this weekend for some elderly neighbours? Could you maybe not buy 2 years of toilet roll so that everyone can have some? Could you offer some time to volunteer for charities? 

Sorry, another question.
As you are at the front line do you know anything about the shortage of protective clothing or the downgrading of what is required to wear as written about in the Times, Guardian and Telegraph today.

There's quite a disparity between what is being suggested for NHS staff, and what is being suggested for the general public. If we were to take the advice that Boris is dishing out, every hospital would be without staff within a few days. As it stands within the NHS at present in my London trust, no shortage of protective clothing, but there are mutterings that there may be rationing of certain things in certain areas due to the process of the supply chain catching up with the sudden jump in demand. 

I've not read any of the newspaper articles to be honest about what is advised to be worn, but we are only going full glove, gown, mask with patients who are confirmed cases, and of whom we are going to do some sort of aerosol generating procedure on. Unless you have been mask fit tested, there is no guarantee an FFP3 mask is going to work anyway, and it'd probably shock most to learn that in a lot of cases these masks don't provide protection. The last test I had done clean shaven I lasted 2 mins 30s before my PPE failed, and with my stubble, 35s. A lot of the people you see walking around the shops with them on have got it on wrong, or haven't made a proper seal, or have a full on beard which renders the mask useless, or my favourite one, the lady removing it to talk to her friend in the queue before putting it back on again. The feeling within the NHS is very much we are all going to get it, and there have been all sorts of novel rotas drawn up to ensure that we don't all go off at once if we do at all.

As for oversees staff either coming or going, I have not witnessed any of that. May have happened I guess, but not that I have seen, and certainly not in any great numbers. The shutting of the schools I would suggest is the start of a greater lock down coming down the line soon. 

Windofchange

Thrugelmir said:

Windofchange  A&E demand has fallen considerably. Seems as if closure measures have resulted in fewer incidents also people are less inclined to turn up for minor ailments. 

Yeah we've noticed that today across both sites. A&E is still busy, but it's not "busy". It's almost like a Christmas Day shift - few drunks and unfortunates I for the early morning / overnight, and then just a few people an hour with some kind of turkey (COVID) induced vomitting. People definitely seem to be staying away, and there are certainly a number of surgical teams making the most of their downtime before they get redeployed to where the action is on the isolation wards.

buglawton

You might like to compare this with the chart 2 posts above. Source: Todays Telegraph.

gfplux

Windofchange said:

gfplux said:

Windofchange said:

silvertooth said:

There will be a serious shortage of staff because this virus seems to infect everyone even with correct PPE

sports halls and hotels will all have to be made into field hospitals but there is nowhere near enough staff

every trained medical professional will need to be covering hundreds of infected each

Possibly the biggest threat to vulnerable people currently is this sort of hysteria. It is exactly this that is driving people to buy out supermarkets, and think that the world is coming to an end. PPE is very effective against COVID-19 when worn properly, and those of us at the front line have been drilled for years with regard to infection control. It is what we have been doing day in day out for decades with highly vulnerable patient groups, and in some cases, viruses and diseases far more dangerous that this.

The current plan is around usage of existing NHS facilities as opposed to hotels and sports halls. Again, calm down. Also, see point one. Even if you turned a sports hall into a hospital, how are you going to staff it? There is in essence a natural barrier to how big the response can be, and this is dictated by the staffing that we have available. You aren't going to see your local Travelodge turned into an intensive care unit. 

Speaking again from experience, the vast majority of cases I have come across to date are not needing intensive medical treatment. They are needing supplementary oxygen, or IV fluids etc, not ventilators and exotic medical procedures. I feel the real danger to the general population comes from the knock on effects of cancellation of operations, lack of A&E space etc. I think that more people will suffer from these effects than from COVID itself. 

It's certainly interesting times, and this will rumble on for a fair amount of time. As a plea from the front line, the best thing you can do is stay calm and carry on with a bit of extra care and attention to your personal hygiene and those around you who are maybe vulnerable. Could you go shopping this weekend for some elderly neighbours? Could you maybe not buy 2 years of toilet roll so that everyone can have some? Could you offer some time to volunteer for charities? 

Sorry, another question.
As you are at the front line do you know anything about the shortage of protective clothing or the downgrading of what is required to wear as written about in the Times, Guardian and Telegraph today.

There's quite a disparity between what is being suggested for NHS staff, and what is being suggested for the general public. If we were to take the advice that Boris is dishing out, every hospital would be without staff within a few days. As it stands within the NHS at present in my London trust, no shortage of protective clothing, but there are mutterings that there may be rationing of certain things in certain areas due to the process of the supply chain catching up with the sudden jump in demand. 

I've not read any of the newspaper articles to be honest about what is advised to be worn, but we are only going full glove, gown, mask with patients who are confirmed cases, and of whom we are going to do some sort of aerosol generating procedure on. Unless you have been mask fit tested, there is no guarantee an FFP3 mask is going to work anyway, and it'd probably shock most to learn that in a lot of cases these masks don't provide protection. The last test I had done clean shaven I lasted 2 mins 30s before my PPE failed, and with my stubble, 35s. A lot of the people you see walking around the shops with them on have got it on wrong, or haven't made a proper seal, or have a full on beard which renders the mask useless, or my favourite one, the lady removing it to talk to her friend in the queue before putting it back on again. The feeling within the NHS is very much we are all going to get it, and there have been all sorts of novel rotas drawn up to ensure that we don't all go off at once if we do at all.

As for oversees staff either coming or going, I have not witnessed any of that. May have happened I guess, but not that I have seen, and certainly not in any great numbers. The shutting of the schools I would suggest is the start of a greater lock down coming down the line soon. 

First thing. Please keep safe.
This from Bloomberg this morning.
quote
Key among them is inadequate protection for medical workers, leading to a high infection rate among doctors and nurses. In Wuhan, a lack of understanding of the disease and a shortage of protective equipment in the early weeks of the outbreak in January led to thousands of health-care workers being infected while treating patients. At least 46 have died.
end quote
The full article here
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-17/europe-s-doctors-getting-sick-like-in-wuhan-chinese-doctors-say